Churchill Downs Picks: 2025 Kentucky Oaks Horses, Odds, and Predictions

Kentucky Oaks 2025

While Kentucky Derby weekend at Churchill Downs centers around the “Run For The Roses”, Friday night’s main event is the “Lilies For The Fillies”, as the Kentucky Oaks features the top 3-year-old females in the horse racing world. We don’t have a Thorpedo Anna in this year’s field, as one of the best 3-year-olds of all-time won this race last year and then went on to win four more Grade 1 stakes races by the end of the year, including the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

While we don’t have a Thorpedo Anna, we do have a ton of pace in this year’s 14-horse field and that could make for a very interesting race. Hopefully the weather cooperates, as rain is expected throughout the week and early Friday, as speed is the name of the game here, but running in the muck could muddy the waters for some of the top contenders.

Here is the field and the odds for the 2025 Kentucky Oaks:

Odds from DK Horse as of 9:30 p.m. PT, May 1

Brad Cox, a two-time winner of the Oaks with Shedaresthedevil (2020) and Monomoy Girl (2018) will not have Florent Geroux on the mount, but he does have Luis Saez, who some consider to be the best stakes jockey in the world. Saez will guide the favorite, Good Cheer, who has a very short price at 7/5.

At post draw and early in the week, only three horses – Good Cheer, La Cara, and Quietside – had single-digit prices, but I would expect that to change by Friday’s 5:51 p.m. ET post time.

Let’s look at all 12 contenders and see who stands out alongside the favorite.

1. Early On (31-1; Zayas/Joseph): The daughter of Union Rags drew the dreaded rail post here after a strong showing in the Grade 3 Gazelle by hitting the board in second. She hasn’t really been tested on a muddy track to this point and finished second in two stakes races to shorter prices in this field. She lacks the speed figures in a race bursting with speed, so she’s truly a long shot to hit any ticket.

2. Simply Joking (8-1; Geroux/Beckman): Simply Joking ran second in the Grade 2 Fantasy to Quietside after closing 3-1 as the second favorite behind the winner. The distance of 1 1/8 miles is a concern here, as Quietside outran Simply Joking over the final furlong and a half and that race was her longest to date at 1 1/16 miles. Jaime Torres had that ride, but Florent Geroux has this one. Also, keep an eye on the weather for Friday, as Simply Joking (8/5) coasted to the win over Bless the Broken in a mud puddle at Fair Grounds back in January.

3. Fondly (23-1; I. Ortiz/Motion): The daughter of Upstart and Lifetime Memory is unbeaten in two efforts, as she didn’t race as a 2-year-old. She broke her maiden at Tampa Bay Downs in February and topped Early On in the off-track Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs in March four weeks after her first race. She’s a name to keep in mind throughout the year as she gets more experience and her Beyer and Equibase figures likely grow, but this is a massive step up in class. It won’t be shocking if she handles it, but she is a little light on distance running in her pedigree, as sire Upstart was a multiple winner at 1 1/16 miles, but never more than that. That said, he did hit the board at 1 1/8 multiple times.

4. Drexel Hill (36-1; Curtis/Beckman): The second entry for Whit Beckman is less of a pacesetter and more of a closer, so she has a good chance to pass some tiring rivals over the final quarter of this race. The question is whether or not she’ll have enough fuel to close here. She won the Busher at a mile at Aqueduct on March 1, but she’s never run more than a 1 mile and 70 yards in her career. She has taken to dirt pretty well after starting on the synthetic track at Woodbine, so she’s another one to keep an eye on over the summer, especially in sprints, but probably not here.

5. Quickick (45-1; Rispoli/Amoss): Umberto Rispoli will ride Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism on Saturday, but he’ll have to work some magic here to get long shot Quickick to the board. She is 0-for-2 as a 3-year-old, finishing fifth at Oaklawn in the Honeybee and fourth at the Fair Grounds Oaks, well behind Good Cheer. She also finished well behind Quietside at the Honeybee. The show finisher in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was also the runner-up in the Grade 2 Alciblades, where she outran Quietside, but the daughter of McKinzie would need to turn the tide in a big way to be a factor here.

6. Ballerina d’Oro (12-1; Prat/Brown): A very strong bloodline and a rider change are likely to make Ballerina d’Oro a popular mid-range shot on Friday. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro and In The Moonlight, a daughter of Tapit, rolled to a win last time out in the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct at a 3/5 price. She’s hit the board in all three starts on dirt, though she may have to test out a sloppy track for the first time here. Ballerina d’Oro seemed disinterested down the final stretch at the Gazelle and was even running with her head cocked awkwardly towards the stands before straightening up and narrowly beating Early On.

I’m super intrigued with her potential here, but I don’t know that she’ll like all the traffic in this race. Maybe Prat can keep her in line and tap into that strong body and stellar bloodline.

7. La Cara (7-1; Davis/Casse): Speaking of Davis, he draws his regular ride on La Cara, who was a spot better than Ballerina d’Oro in the Grade 2 Davona Dale and then won the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland. She’s back at Churchill, where she won her stakes debut in the Pocahontas last year at one mile. She’s made two turns a couple of times and run some sprints, so she’s proven to be a truly versatile filly out of Street Sense and Cara Caterina. After going basically wire-to-wire last time out at 9-1, it is fair to wonder how she’ll do with increased distance and traffic, but she checks a lot of boxes as a strong contender.

SCR. Five G (SCR; Franco/Weaver): Scratched on May 1.

9. Tenma (8-1; J.J. Hernandez/Baffert): The well-bred daughter of Nyquist and Amagansett has some recent history to overcome. She’s won five of her six career races, including two stakes wins this year at Santa Anita. But, California shippers have only won the Kentucky Oaks once in the last 13 years. It is worth noting, though, that the winner was a Baffert-trained filly by the name of Abel Tasman. Baffert did the same thing with Plum Pretty in 2011. He seems to have a good handle on which Cali horses to ship. This weekend also represents Baffert’s return to Kentucky Derby weekend at Churchill Downs after a three-year suspension.

Tenma is certainly worthy of some attention, especially since father Nyquist, the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner, was okay with leveling up in distance, but that’s something Tenma has shown some trouble with so far.

10. Take Charge Milady (13-1; B. Hernandez/McPeek): What a difference a year makes. The dynamic duo of Brian Hernandez and Kenny McPeek had Thorpedo Anna in this race last year. They bring Take Charge Milady to the starting gate here, as the filly closed very well in the Ashland against La Cara. It was a really big bounce back effort after not being a factor at all in the Honeybee, where rider Julien Leparoux smartly pulled her back during a brutal trip. Interestingly, Hernandez rode Anonima to sixth in that race and now draws the trusted mount in the Oaks. He did ride her in the Ashland for the first time and that felt like a “Spring Training” start to prepare for this race.

11. Good Cheer (7/5; Saez/Cox): The clear favorite for Friday night is a perfect 6-for-6 as she approaches $1 million in earnings. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro and Wedding Toast will add an eighth of a mile for the first time, as she’s run five times at 1 1/16 and once at a mile. Her resume includes Churchill wins in the Rags to Riches Stakes and the Golden Rod, along with Fair Grounds wins in the Rachel Alexandra and FG Oaks. The 11 post should be to her advantage, as Saez should get the trip he wants here to stalk the pace. It is worth mentioning that Good Cheer is a bit of a rarity in that her mom is also a six-time stakes winner who did very well in New York. She also finished fourth and 11th in two Kentucky starts, for whatever that’s worth.

12. Anna’s Promise (22-1; Alvarado/David): The runner-up in the Gulfstream Park Oaks needed six tries to break her maiden, which she did at seven furlongs. She followed that up with a nice allowance win at GP a month later and had a decent effort in her stakes debut. She’s quite the long shot here after being claimed by trainer Carlos David following the second win of her career. Father Promises Fulfilled won once in a two-turn race, but mostly ran as a sprinter. Mother Caroline Lois never ran more than a mile. Good for Anna’s Promise to be in this field, but she’d have had a better shot at seven furlongs or a mile to make some money this weekend.

13. Bless the Broken (11-1; Velazquez/Walden): Those looking for one of the shots to fill out an exotic may want to look at John Velazquez from the 13 post on Bless the Broken. The winner of the Bourbonette Oaks on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park is one of the stronger closers in the race. With a lot of horses that haven’t had a data point at this distance, she got one at the Demoiselle, where she did finish seventh. As a 3-year-old, she’s 3-for-3 hitting the board and her first data point of the year came on a sloppy track, where she closed on Simply Joking.

If nothing else, we should all be rooting for trainer Will Walden and team. His story was the profile of a World Horse Racing YouTube Video about how he got sober and began a program to help others with substance abuse be around the barn and get their lives on track.

14. Quietside (9-1; J. Ortiz, J.A. Ortiz): With a very short price on Good Cheer, a lot of horseplayers will be looking for a filly with more value and Quietside will be a popular one. The daughter of Malibu Moon and Benner Island is 6-for-6 in hitting the board, with three wins, including stakes victories in the Fantasy and Honeybee in her last two starts. It is a revenge spot for John A. Ortiz after Quietside was second to Good Cheer in the Golden Rod last year. Tyler Gaffalione had that ride. Jose Ortiz has had the last two and he’ll look for a third win in a row.

Kentucky Oaks Picks

Win: 9 Tenma

Trifecta Box: 6/9/11/13

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