NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Thursday, May 1:
Here are Thursday’s NHL predictions.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators (-120, 5.5)
Game Six (Maple Leafs lead series 3-2)
7 p.m. ET
Following Saturday’s 4-3 overtime win in Game Four, Brady Tkachuk told the Senators, see you back here for Game Six, and he and his teammates delivered on the promise. “This is not just about our team, it’s about our city. You can feel the excitement, and we’re going to need it tonight,” the Ottawa captain said.
Trying to close teams out and win a playoff series has been next to impossible for the Maple Leafs. Toronto is now 1-13 in its last 14 games when having the opportunity to put away a team and advance to the next round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. One trend from this year’s postseason that points to a Toronto win tonight, albeit a very small sample size. Both Tampa and Dallas won their next games after being shut out. For those of you who like to wager on the full game totals, both went Over.
If you like Toronto to win tonight, then I would play the reverse puck line (-1.5, +240). In the games won by underdogs in this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, they have won by two or more goals in 11 of the 15 wins. I am passing on picking a winner tonight as I gave out at the start of the series, separate wagers for the series to be decided in six and seven games (both at +200). I also had Leafs forward, Matthew Knies to score at least three goals (also a winner). My best bet for tonight’s game is for Ottawa captain, Matthew Tkachuk, to record four or more shots on goal. He has hit this number in all but one game in the series. I will also make a couple of small plays on an empty net goal to be scored and the third period Over two goals.
Game Six Predictions:
Matthew Tkachuk Over 3.5 SOG (-155) – 2 units
Empty net goal (+115) – .25 units
3rd period Over 2 goals (-102) – .25 units
Vegas Golden Knights (160, 5.5) at Minnesota Wild
Game Six (Golden Knights lead series 3-2)
7:30 p.m. ET
This has been one of the most exciting series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. We have had back-to-back overtime games, and four of the five games have had six goals or more. One lineup change for Vegas tonight is Pavel Dorofeyev, injured in Game Five, is out for Game Six. In comes Victor Olofsson, who will see number one power play time. All five games in this series have featured two or more goals in the first period. Four of the five games have had a goal from each team in the opening 20 minutes.
Jack Eichel has looked more like himself in the past few games, and it’s been especially noticeable in his shot totals—11 shots on goal (5,6) in the past two games. FanDuel offers shots on goal props (regulation only), and that is the approach I will take with Eichel to reduce the juice. I will play Eichel’s alternate shots on goal prop to include overtime, with it being at “plus money.”
There has been no stopping the Wild’s Kirill Kaprizov (five goals, four assists) and Matt Boldy (five goals, two assists) in this series. I wouldn’t discourage you from playing their goal and assists props individually, but I will play it safe and parlay them to each record a point tonight.
Game Six Predictions:
1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-116) – 1 unit
1st Period BTTS (+180) – .50 units
Jack Eichel Over 2.5 SOG/regulation only (-120) – 1 unit
Jack Eichel Over 3.5 SOG/includes OT (+160) – .35 units
Kirill Kaprizov/Matt Boldy Over ½ point parlay (-142) – 1 unit
Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche (-190, 6.5)
Game Six (Stars lead series 3-2)
9:30 p.m. ET
The Colorado Avalanche hopes to avoid being knocked out by the Dallas Stars in back-to-back years in the Stanley Cup Playoffs as the series now shifts back to Denver. Full marks to Dallas, who came into the postseason on an eight-game losing streak and have been without their best defenseman, Miro Heiskanen and leading goal scorer Jason Robertson for the entire series.
After scoring five goals in regulation through the first four games, the Stars erupted for six goals in Game Five. One of the trends that I have been tracking is the team that loses the previous game scoring the opening goal of the following game. This trend is 22-10 in this year’s playoffs, and the Avalanche have scored the first goal of the game following their two previous losses to Dallas. If you want to get a little aggressive, you could play Dallas to score the first goal of the first period at “plus money.”
In addition to playing the Avs to score the first goal, I will be on Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen to go over their shots on goal props. MacKinnon leads the playoffs with 31 shots on goal and has yet to have fewer than four shots on goal in any game. Rantanen has had three or more shots on goal in a game just once in the series.
Game Six Predictions:
Colorado Avalanche to score the 1st goal of the game (-145) – .50 units
Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 SOG (-164) – 2.5 units
Mikko Rantanen Over 2.5 SOG (+110) – .50 units
Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers (-170, 5.5)
Game Six (Oilers lead series 3-2)
10 p.m. ET
After jumping on the Oilers and taking a 2-0 series lead, the Los Angeles Kings find themselves one loss away from being eliminated by the Oilers for the fourth consecutive postseason. Edmonton opened as a (-135) favorite and has been steamed up to (-170). From our VSIN Betting Splits page, the Oilers are taking in 77% of the bets and 80% of the handle. I do believe that Edmonton closes the series out tonight, but the money line is way too pricey for my liking. I do like the value of betting the Oilers to win on the puck line (-1.5 goals) and will also target the Oilers to score an empty-net goal.
Edmonton’s Evander Kane has two goals and three points in the last three games to go along with 13 shots on goal (5,4,4). Leon Draisaitl has earned a point in all five games in the series and has run his playoff point streak against the Kings to 19 games. Connor McDavid has points in four of the five games in the series and 14 of the last 15 playoff games against the Oilers.
Game Six Predictions:
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals (+152) – .25 units
Edmonton Oilers/Los Angeles Kings 1st Period Under 1.5 goals (+106) – .25 units
Edmonton Oilers to score empty net goal (+290) – .25 units
Evander Kane Over 2.5 SOG (+130) – 1 unit
Connor McDavid point/Evander Kane Over 2.5 SOG (+148) – .25 units
Leon Draisaitl point/Kane Over 2.5 SOG (+154) – .25 units
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