RBC Heritage Best Bets and Golf Odds:
The 11th time was the charm for Rory McIlroy as he finally captured the career Grand Slam, which he had been striving for since 2015. At last, McIlroy is a Masters champion, but it could only happen in dramatic and tumultuous fashion.
After Thursday’s first round, it looked like McIlroy was going to have to wait yet another year to win the green jacket. For the first time in many years, he was off to a good start before disaster struck, and he made two double bogeys in his final four holes to shoot an even-par round. However, he would not give in and shot back-to-back 6-under rounds of 66 to have a two-shot lead heading into Sunday.
Paired with his 2024 U.S. Open nemesis Bryson DeChambeau, McIlroy’s two-shot lead was gone after the first hole with another double bogey, and he actually lost the lead for the first time on the second hole. Nevertheless, he regained the lead, and it ballooned to a five-shot advantage heading into Amen Corner (11, 12, 13).
McIlroy got to the par-5 13th with a four-shot lead and made a sensible decision to lay up and then proceeded to hit an awful 86-yard wedge shot into Rae’s Creek and made double bogey to trim his lead to just one stroke over Justin Rose. He maintained that lead until the 16th, but then Rose carded a bogey on 17, whereas McIlroy made birdie. Then, Rose made birdie on 18 and McIlroy could not save par out of the bunker and missed a five-foot putt on the low side to find himself in a playoff.
After Rose nearly holed his approach on the first playoff hole only to have it roll 10 feet past the hole, McIlroy hit his approach, where he led the field all week, to inside three feet. With Rose not converting birdie, he had to settle for another playoff defeat at the Masters (2017 to Sergio Garcia). The stage was finally McIlroy’s alone, and he converted the putt to join Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, Ben Hogan, Gary Player and Gene Sarazen as winners of the career Grand Slam.
Win or lose, McIlroy was likely not going to be in the frame of mind to tee it up this week even at a “Signature” event at the RBC Heritage in South Carolina.
Instead, defending event champion Scottie Scheffler (4-1) will be the clear favorite once again. Scheffler made a valiant effort to become the first Masters champion to defend his title since Tiger Woods in 2002 but settled for fourth.
Collin Morikawa (11-1), Ludvig Åberg (12-1), who got to within one stroke of the lead in Sunday’s final round before a bogey/triple bogey finish to fall to seventh, and Xander Schauffele (14-1), who finished T-8 at Augusta for his first top-10 of 2025, follow on the odds board.
Patrick Cantlay has finished third, third and second here the last three years, and he is priced at 20-1 along with Justin Thomas.
Corey Conners (22-1) was in the mix for contention all weekend at the Masters before settling for a T-8 for his fourth top-10 finish in his last five tries at Augusta.
Shane Lowry (28-1) was in the mix until late Saturday and stuck around after a 9-over round of 81 on Sunday to be greenside, as did Tommy Fleetwood (30-1), and greet his good buddy McIlroy with a bear hug after his friend’s victory.
Russell Henley (28-1), Viktor Hovland (33-1), 2022 RBC Heritage winner and 2023 runner-up Jordan Spieth (40-1), Sepp Straka (40-1), Sungjae Im (40-1), who was T-5 last week and Jason Day (40-1), who was T-8 last week, are other notables in this field.
Rose, who settled for his fifth career runner-up in a major championship, is 66-1 this week.
The Event
The RBC Heritage was established in 1969 as the Heritage Classic, and the inaugural event was won by “The King” himself, Arnold Palmer, at just 1 under par (283), which is still the highest score to win this event. Harbour Town Golf Links at Sea Pines Resort on Hilton Head Island has been the event’s host since its inception. RBC, the Royal Bank of Canada, has been the event’s title sponsor since 2012. Except for 2020 (due to COVID-19), the RBC Heritage has been played on the week following the Masters from 1983 to its present date.
Ten men have won this tournament more than once through 2021.
5 wins
Davis Love III: 1987, 1991, 1992, 1998, 2003
3 wins
Hale Irwin: 1971, 1973, 1994
Stewart Cink: 2000, 2004, 2021
2 wins
Johnny Miller: 1972, 1974
Hubert Green: 1976, 1978
Tom Watson: 1979, 1982
Fuzzy Zoeller: 1983, 1986
Payne Stewart: 1989, 1990
Boo Weekley: 2007, 2008
Jim Furyk: 2010, 2015
Other notable winners here include Jack Nicklaus (1975), Nick Faldo (1984), Bernhard Langer (1985), Greg Norman (1988), Nick Price (1997), Jordan Spieth (2022), Matt Fitzpatrick (2023) and Scottie Scheffler (2024).
The Field
72 players are in this week’s limited field for the “Signature” event at the RBC Heritage.
Most elite players rarely play the week after a major. However, with $20 million on the line, including a $3.6 million share to the winner, it’s back to the grind immediately after the Masters.
The Course
Harbour Town Golf Links was designed in 1967 by Pete Dye and assisted by Jack Nicklaus, which was the first foray into course design for the “Golden Bear.” Harbour Town plays as a par-71 of 7,213 yards. It is a Coastal links that is tree-lined with doglegs and narrow sight lines off the tee as you will find with most courses in the Carolinas. The trees can also disguise the wind. Some of these dogleg holes force you to lay up off the tee with less than driver.
The fairways and rough are overseeded Ryegrass, and the greens are overseeded Poa Trivialis. The rough was shortened two years ago and will be around 1.5 inches this year.. The average fairway width is around 33.5 yards, which is less than tour average, so ball striking has an even greater importance. The tiny, dome-shaped greens (a Dye trademark) average around 3,700 square feet and are the second smallest on the PGA Tour and will roll at an average speed (11.5) on the stimpmeter.
Water comes into play on nine holes, with six of those affecting approach shots.
Most of the first 16 holes at Harbour Town play inland as the course weaves through natural woodlands that are surrounded by a residential housing development.
The 17th and 18th holes are the highlights at Harbour Town. The 17th hole is a par-3 with a beautiful background of the Calibogue Sound. It plays 185 yards over water to a green fronted by a large bunker that runs the entire length to the left side with bunkers on the right.
The 18th is one of the most famous holes on the PGA Tour. It is a tough par-4 that features the famous 90-foot Harbour Town Lighthouse. Though it has a massive 75-yard wide fairway, it plays as one of the most difficult holes on the course because of the water that lines the left side of the hole along with the wind gusts that blow off the Calibogue Sound right into the player’s face.
Pete Dye is the designer so there is a fair number of Dye courses every year on the PGA Tour schedule if you are looking for a course correlation. They include:
Austin Country Club – WGC Dell Matchplay since 2016
Crooked Stick – 2012 and 2016 BMW Championship.
Ocean Course – Kiawah Island – 2012 and 2021 PGA Championship
TPC River Highlands – The Travelers
TPC Louisiana – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
TPC Sawgrass – The Players Championship
TPC Stadium, PGA West – The American Express since 2016
Whistling Straits – 2010 and 2015 PGA Championship
Aside from the Dye designs (especially TPC River Highlands and TPC Sawgrass), other courses with strong correlations include Waialae CC, Sedgefield CC, Pebble Beach, and Sea Island Resort.
The Hilton Head Island Packet provides an interactive hole-by-hole guide of Harbour Town Golf Links.
RBC Heritage Recent History/Winners
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-19/265); 4-1
2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17/267); 28-1*
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13/271); 40-1**
2021: Stewart Cink (-19/265); 125-1
2020: Webb Simpson (-22/262); 30-1
2019: C.T. Pan (-12/272); 160-1
2018: Satoshi Kodaira (-12/272); 250-1***
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13/271); 80-1
2016: Branden Grace (-9/275); 40-1
2015: Jim Furyk (-18/266); 25-1****
2014: Matt Kuchar (-11/273); 18-1
2013: Graeme McDowell (-9/275); 40-1*****
2012: Carl Pettersson (-14/270); 55-1
2011: Brandt Snedeker (-12/272); 35-1******
2010: Jim Furyk (-13/271); 14-1*******
Playoff win over Jordan Spieth – *
Playoff win over Patrick Cantlay – **
Playoff win over Si Woo Kim – ***
Playoff win over Kevin Kisner – ****
Playoff win over Webb Simpson – *****
Playoff win over Luke Donald – ******
Playoff win over Brian Davis – *******
Note: The RBC Heritage became a “Signature” event with a limited field beginning in 2024.
Statistical Analysis
Scottie Scheffler led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach during his victory last year. Harbour Town has the second-smallest greens on the PGA Tour, so strong iron play is at even more of a premium than usual.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Collin Morikawa 1.192
- J.J. Spaun 1.097
- Xander Schauffele 1.022
- Sepp Straka 0.973
- Scottie Scheffler 0.871
- Shane Lowry 0.867
- Justin Thomas 0.837
- Nick Taylor 0.793
- Viktor Hovland 0.749
- Tommy Fleetwood 0.748
- Tom Hoge 0.703
- Sami Valimaki 0.690
- Bud Cauley 0.661
- Ryan Gerard 0.612
- Patrick Cantlay 0.598
- Will Zalatoris 0.594
- Robert MacIntyre 0.565
- Michael Kim 0.562
- Russell Henley 0.561
Slightly less than half of the approach shots play from the 150-200-yard range.
Average Proximity to the Hole Gained — Yards Per Round — 150 to 175 Yards (Last 24 rounds)
- Tommy Fleetwood 10.57
- Lucas Glover 8.57
- Cam Davis 8.51
- Tom Hoge 8.44
- Jacob Bridgeman 8.27
- Nick Taylor 8.17
- Justin Thomas 8.02
- Corey Conners 7.43
- Andrew Novak 7.33
- Joe Highsmith 7.31
- Maverick McNealy 7.14
- Will Zalatoris 7.06
- Russell Henley 5.95
- Sepp Straka 5.81
- Brian Harman 5.77
- Daniel Berger 5.63
- Sam Stevens 5.24
- Ryan Gerard 5.07
Average Proximity to the Hole Gained — Yards Per Round — 175 to 200 Yards (Last 24 rounds)
- Joe Highsmith 14.17
- Bud Cauley 13.33
- Sepp Straka 13.14
- Viktor Hovland 12.80
- Keegan Bradley 12.62
- Eric Cole 12.48
- Will Zalatoris 11.87
- Xander Schauffele 11.40
- Shane Lowry 11.38
- Corey Conners 10.24
- Russell Henley 9.48
- Matthieu Pavon 8.77
- Max Homa 8.66
- Tom Hoge 8.23
- Thomas Detry 8.15
- Michael Kim 8.15
- Chris Kirk 7.22
While it is not all that difficult to gain strokes Around The Green here, these are small and firm greens, so the short games must be tidy.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Min Woo Lee 0.498
- Brian Campbell 0.419
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.398
- Andrew Novak 0.388
- Michael Kim 0.385
- Sungjae Im 0.366
- Russell Henley 0.358
- Si Woo Kim 0.354
- Daniel Berger 0.350
- Shane Lowry 0.315
- Stephan Jaeger 0.293
- Matt Kuchar 0.282
- Adam Hadwin 0.278
- Mackenzie Hughes 0.277
- Justin Thomas 0.271
- Collin Morikawa 0.268
- J.T. Poston 0.259
- Max Homa 0.258
- Davis Thompson 0.252
- Patrick Rodgers 0.250
Scrambling (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 72.08%
- Michael Kim 67.76
- Denny McCarthy 67.50
- Patrick Rodgers 66.79
- Matt Kuchar 66.67
- Sam Stevens 66.01
- Shane Lowry 65.61
- Nick Taylor 65.24
- Jacob Bridgeman 65.07
- Collin Morikawa 64.84
- Daniel Berger 64.79
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 64.71
- Andrew Novak 64.48
- Jason Day 64.40
- Bud Cauley 63.76
- Eric Cole 63.61
- Sungjae Im 63.39
- Ryan Gerard 63.20
- Min Woo Lee 63.19
- Tom Hoge 63.10
- Corey Conners 63.05
Harbour Town ranks fourth lowest on the PGA Tour for average Driving Distance at 278.5 yards. It is a fairly typical Pete Dye risk/reward course where if you drive the ball to the safe side, then the approach shot is more difficult. However, if you hit closer towards trouble (water hazards, bunkers), then the approach shot is easier to the hole.
The best way to account for off the tee and driving performance is Good Drives Gained.
Good Drives Gained (Last 24 rounds)
- Aaron Rai 27.2
- Ryo Hisatsune 25.3
- Corey Conners 25.1
- Russell Henley 23.4
- J.J. Spaun 23.3
- Collin Morikawa 23.2
- Daniel Berger 22.7
- Sepp Straka 20.7
- Patrick Cantlay 19.2
- Viktor Hovland 17.7
- Harris English 17.7
- Lucas Glover 17.4
- Robert MacIntyre 17.3
- Tommy Fleetwood 15.1
- Bud Cauley 14.4
- Sami Valimaki 14.2
- Jordan Spieth 14.2
- Brian Harman 13.9
- Shane Lowry 12.8
- Akshay Bhatia 12.5
Six of the 11 par-4s measure 400-450 yards.
Strokes Gained Par-4s 400-450 Yards (Last 24 rounds)
- Aaron Rai 13.9
- Jordan Spieth 13.3
- Gary Woodland 12.6
- Scottie Scheffler 12.6
- Tommy Fleetwood 12.1
- Austin Eckroat 10.9
- Michael Kim 10.3
- Sahith Theegala 8.6
- Corey Conners 8.1
- Justin Thomas 8
- Robert MacIntyre 7.8
- Min Woo Lee 7.7
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 7.5
- Patrick Rodgers 6.8
- Sungjae Im 6.5
- Billy Horschel 6.2
- Brian Harman 5.4
- Denny McCarthy 5.3
- J.T. Poston 5.1
- Jason Day 5
Harbour Town is a course that is more about positioning than overpowering the course.
Strokes Gained: Courses < 7,200 Yards (Last 24 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 56.5
- Justin Thomas 49
- Ludvig Åberg 40.9
- Collin Morikawa 40.4
- Sepp Straka 40.4
- Michael Kim 35
- Patrick Cantlay 31.2
- J.J. Spaun 30.7
- Russell Henley 30.2
- Austin Eckroat 29.1
- Eric Cole 29
- Min Woo Lee 26.3
- Sungjae Im 25.7
- Tom Hoge 25.5
- Lucas Glover 23.3
- Aaron Rai 22.9
- Max Greyserman 22.2
- Maverick McNealy 22.1
- Jason Day 21.6
- Nick Taylor 21.1
- Jacob Bridgeman 20.6
- Ryo Hisatsune 20.3
Lastly, we can look at recent history on Pete Dye courses as all of his layouts are risk/reward.
Strokes Gained Total — Pete Dye Courses (Last 24 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 64.9
- Justin Thomas 47.2
- Brian Harman 45.9
- Wyndham Clark 42.3
- Tom Hoge 35.3
- Xander Schauffele 34.9
- Patrick Cantlay 32.6
- Corey Conners 31.9
- Daniel Berger 30.4
- Sepp Straka 29.2
- Denny McCarthy 28.9
- Min Woo Lee 28.3
- Aaron Rai 26.5
- Collin Morikawa 26.3
- Sahith Theegala 25.9
- Russell Henley 22.2
- Matt Fitzpatrick 21.6
- Ludvig Åberg 21.4
- Tommy Fleetwood 20.3
Selections
Collin Morikawa (11-1, DraftKings)
The 2025 Masters was disappointing for Morikawa as he was never in it over the weekend and finished T-14.
However, he was third overall for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (Off The Tee + Approach) just behind the two playoff participants McIlroy and Rose.
Harbour Town has always been seemingly a perfect course for Morikawa, and he does have two top-10s here.
Patrick Cantlay (20-1, DraftKings)
Similar to Morikawa, Cantlay has a winless drought dating close to two-and-a-half years.
If there is a place to get off that schneid, one would think it would be at Harbour Town, considering his form reads 3-3-2-MC-3-7-3.
Cantlay also has a strong record on Pete Dye designs for many seasons now.
Tommy Fleetwood (33-1, FanDuel)
After Rory McIlroy stepped off the 18th green, having finally won the Masters to complete the career Grand Slam, Shane Lowry was the first player to greet him with a giant bear hug. The next player to greet him was Fleetwood.
Like McIlroy’s pursuit of the Grand Slam, Fleetwood has been in pursuit of a milestone for a long time — his first PGA Tour victory.
The Englishman has won seven times on the DP World Tour but has yet to win in America.
He putted miserably at Augusta, which led to a T-21 finish, but he was third behind McIlroy and third-place finisher Patrick Reed for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green.
Perhaps seeing his buddy McIlroy get a monkey off his back will be that small boost to help Fleetwood remove his own monkey off his back.
Sungjae Im (40-1, DraftKings)
Im finished fifth at Augusta despite not getting much out of his ball striking until Sunday’s final round.
He has gone 13-21-7-12 over his last four visits to Harbour Town.
The South Korean has three top-5 finishes this season and looks close to breaking his winless spell (three-and-a-half years on the PGA Tour, won each of the last two years on the Korean Tour).
Daniel Berger (50-1, FanDuel)
Berger finished T-21 at the Masters but ranked sixth in the field for Greens In Regulation.
He was third at Harbour Town in 2020.
His three PGA Tour victories, at Southwind, Pebble Beach and Colonial, have all been on shorter or more technical courses that cater more to ball strikers.
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