We’re nearing the end of the 2025 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, which is one of my favorite clay-court events of the season. The semifinals, played in Monaco’s Monte-Carlo Country Club, will pit tournament favorite Carlos Alcaraz against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the early match, and then Alex de Minaur will take on Lorenzo Musetti in the second. I’ll include some of my thoughts on the two matches below, but I occasionally add some picks to the picks page. I’ll also have plays for other tournaments on that page, so it definitely pays to be a VSiN Pro. Our Summer Special is only $59 and covers you through August 1st. That means you’ll get a ton of my tennis picks and write-ups, as well as the content we provide for all other sports — including our live programming!
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Carlos Alcaraz
I need to be clear and mention right off the bat that I won’t have anything in this match. I have a future on Alcaraz to win the title, so I’m not looking to add anything. However, I do think this is a match that Alcaraz can win rather quickly. The four-time Grand Slam champion has played high-level tennis for a good portion of this tournament. He just got off to bad starts in his first and third matches, allowing Francisco Cerundolo and Arthur Fils to take the opening set from him. But I don’t see Davidovich Fokina doing the same, and I also don’t see the 25-year-old playing two tight sets against Alcaraz.
Davidovich Fokina is off to a great start to the 2025 season, and he’s a player that can be explosive from the baseline and has a good set of wheels on him. He’s also good at mixing in drop shots and keeping opponents on their toes, which is why he has been to a final at this event in the past. But Alcaraz is stronger, faster and more skilled than Davidovich Fokina. He’s also a much better server and returner. And I’m especially worried about Davidovich Fokina’s serve here. That has really never been a consistent weapon of his, and Alcaraz is an elite returner. So, I see the 21-year-old consistently putting pressure on Davidovich Fokina’s serve, and I also like Alcaraz to control most of the baseline exchanges.
Alcaraz is also just looking more and more like Alcaraz this week. Well, the more comfortable and confident he gets each match, the more unbeatable he’ll be. We could be looking at a big clay season.
Lean: Under 21.5 Games (-135)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alex de Minaur
De Minaur double-bageled Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals, winning 6-0, 6-0 in a match that took only 44 minutes. I hit a nice little future on that one, as I had de Minaur to win Quarter 2 at +650 odds. However, even as a bigger believer in de Minaur’s clay-court ability than most, I can’t wrap my head around the Australian being favored over Musetti.
Musetti actually beat de Minaur in Queen’s Club last year, winning 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 at a time when the Australian was scorching hot. De Minaur has also been a strong grass-court player throughout his career. Well, clay is Musetti’s surface. The Italian is 11th on the ATP Tour when it comes to clay-court Elo rating, and his number (1901.6) is significantly higher than de Minaur’s mark (1845.5). Also, over the last 52 weeks, Musetti’s 11-6 clay-court record trumps de Minaur’s 7-4 record. The Italian also has a much higher hold percentage (80.9% vs. 76.1%). Of course, de Minaur now has the highest clay-court break percentage (37.4%) of anybody on tour after that thrashing of Dimitrov. But I’ll take Musetti returning against the de Minaur serve over the other way around. I also think Musetti is a little more dangerous from the baseline.
The only thing I’m a little worried about here is Musetti being fatigued, as de Minaur is going to have a huge advantage in the rest department. But Musetti is a superior clay-court player, and this is a best-of-three tournament. So, I’m hoping he’ll be recovered, giving us a great value for this semi-final match.
Bet: Musetti ML (+125 – 1.5 units)
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