Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, April 7, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Take of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 72-60-3 (54.5%). Here is today’s result:
– PHI-MIA OVER 212.5
DK Betting Splits system #14, team strength system #5, and both Makinen ratings projections all favor Over
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Road teams are 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS in last 10 of Kings-Pistons head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+6.5 at DET)
* Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 254-306-3 ATS (45.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-135 SU and 70-90-5 ATS (43.8%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+13.5 at MIA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): HOME TEAMS – MIAMI ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and a ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-DET
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-DET
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Over the total was 103-90 (53.4%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
4/7: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-DET (o/u at 230.5)
* MIAMI is on an 11-15 SU and ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
4/7: FADE MIAMI vs. Philadelphia
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-13.5 vs. PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 41-39 SU and 46-33-1 ATS in its last 80 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
4/7: PHILADELPHIA at Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+13.5 at MIA)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 109-88 (55.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 221-173 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 278-215 (56.4%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIA (o/u at 212.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.3% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (208-229 ATS, 47.6%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (277-278 ATS, 49.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+13.5 at MIA)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 254-306-3 ATS (45.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-135 SU and 70-90-5 ATS (43.8%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+13.5 at MIA)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +6.5 (+1.1)
2. PHILADELPHIA +13.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +13.5 (+4.3)
2. SACRAMENTO +6.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAC-DET OVER 230.5 (+0.6)
2. PHI-MIA OVER 212.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +13.5 (+1.8)
2. SACRAMENTO +6.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHI-MIA OVER 212.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: SAC-DET UNDER 230.5 (-1.9)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(533) SACRAMENTO at (534) DETROIT
* Road teams are 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 of SAC-DET head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO
(535) PHILADELPHIA at (536) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head games versus PHI
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMIi
The post NBA Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Monday, April 7 appeared first on VSiN.
