MLB Best Bets Today March 31:
The first full week of the MLB season starts with a Monday slate that features a ton of interleague action. There are three NL games and three AL games to go along with eight interleague matchups. We’re getting deeper into the pitching rotations now, as a lot of fourth and fifth starters are getting the ball today and tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how those guys fare, as many of them either made the team from a roster battle, were coming back from injury, or stepped up the quality of their stuff in the offseason.
Each day gives us more data points and more sample size to work with, plus more discussion about torpedo bats, so we’ll see how it all plays out. Even with the Yankees’ home run barrage, the league is just batting .231/.310/.392 on the whole with a 22.4% K% and a 9.4% BB%.
It would be wise to check out my stats glossary, as you’ll see a lot of those terms and the application of them in my handicapping. Also, check out my 30 MLB Team Previews and my list of roster updates since the previews are about a month or so old.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for March 31:
Texas Rangers (-118, 9) at Cincinnati Reds
6:40 p.m. ET
The Rangers hit the road for the first time after taking three of four from the Red Sox in a pretty low-scoring series at Globe Life Field. Only 24 runs were scored between the two teams, as pitching ruled the day pretty much every day. Now Texas heads to Cincinnati with Kumar Rocker on the bump against Brady Singer.
Singer is now in the Reds pitching factory and we’ve already seen some big changes. He’s adopted a cutter, which is a good complement to his sinker/slider arsenal. Throwing primarily two pitches, Singer had a 47.1% GB% last season for the Royals and also had a 22.3% K%. Given that hitters can guess what pitch he’s throwing, as nearly 87% of his tosses were either a sinker or a slider, that is a good K% and a 10.3% SwStr%, while below average, isn’t bad with one primary pitch that doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs.
Singer didn’t get a lot of chases last season, but the cutter could help with that. In Spring Training, he also leveraged his four-seamer more frequently as a way of neutralizing his big platoon split. Lefties batted .291/.367/.488 against him with a .370 wOBA last season and hit 15 of the 22 homers that he allowed. I’ll be more worried about Singer when it warms up in Cincy, but temps are in the 40s tonight.
Rocker obviously has a ton of talent and upside, but he is rough around the edges. He struck out 16 over his final two Spring Training outings, but he did walk nine guys in four March starts. His pitch efficiency is a bit of a question mark and the Reds ranked in the top 10 in Chase Rate in their first series of the season against the Giants. I could see Rocker running up the pitch count and having an early exit here.
The Rangers were one of the teams that did not have Friday off because they didn’t need to incorporate a bad weather day into the schedule. They have some bullpen issues as a result. All of the close games, including three wins, mean that relievers have hit the ground running. Luke Jackson, Chris Martin, Robert Garcia, and Shawn Armstrong would be working for a fourth time in five days. Jacob Webb and Hoby Milner would be working for a third time in four days. That is a lot at this time of the year.
The Reds are missing closer Alexis Diaz, but their middle relievers have pitched well and Ian Gibaut was not used in a leverage role on Sunday after his disastrous Thursday outing. Even if Rocker does find a way to shine, I think the Rangers bullpen is compromised and I do like Singer’s upside on a cold day with a revamped arsenal.
Pick: Reds -102
Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres (-135, 8)
9:40 p.m. ET
The Guardians continue their road trip to start the season, as Luis Ortiz makes his Cleveland regular season debut. San Diego will send out a really interesting guy in Kyle Hart, who shined last season in the KBO, but is now back in the U.S. pitching at the MLB level. He was never that great in the minors, but made some adjustments and fared really well for the NC Dinos, winning the Choi Dong-won Award, the KBO’s version of the Cy Young.
Erick Fedde came back to the States and has fared relatively well, but I’m not so sure I like what Hart brings to the table. He’s a low-velo lefty with a lot of sweeping pitches and more of a junkball arsenal. In the era of velocity, it could work out for him to throw some different things, but he’s unlikely to generate a lot of swings and misses, especially against the Guardians.
In two MLB Spring Training starts for completed games, including one against Cleveland, he allowed eight runs on 10 hits in 7.2 innings of work. He did throw two shutout innings in another one that was called before it was official. But, still, the Guardians are a very patient lineup that doesn’t chase and should be able to get him in the zone. Also, they do project as a pretty decent offense against lefties this season.
Ortiz had an awful time in Arizona, allowing 21 runs on 23 hits in 18.2 innings of work. He had 14 strikeouts against 13 walks. The raw stuff is good, but the Padres, as we saw when Spencer Schwellenbach had two strikes on San Diego hitters in 12 of 20 plate appearances, but still only had four strikeouts, make a ton of contact. Ortiz has not commanded or located well thus far and I’m sure the Guardians are trying to make tweaks and adjustments to maximize his potential.
These are two really good bullpens, so I don’t really want to dabble in a total play on the full game, but I do think that the 1st 5 Over 4.5 is a good wager here. I think we’ll get enough run-scoring chances and hopefully we get the teams to cash in when they have the opportunity. If Jose Ramirez isn’t in the lineup, you’ll probably get a better price on it later. I still like it whether he’s there or not.
Pick: Guardians/Padres 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-110)
Chicago Cubs (-142, 8.5) at Sacramento Athletics
10:05 p.m. ET
The Athletics open up the home portion of their season as they now reside in Sacramento instead of Oakland. It should be fascinating to see how the park plays as we go forward and we do have the wind blowing out with some cool temps for the first game.
Those should be decent pitching conditions for both guys, as the wind might help a little, but with a chance of rain in the forecast, the air will be pretty thick and the winds will be slowing down throughout the game. Estes is an extremely extreme fly ball guy, as he posted a GB% of just 24.6% last season. He’s not a guy that I’d want in my rotation when it gets warm in Sactown and I don’t think he will be.
Anyway, what I’m looking at here, though, is Under 3.5 strikeouts for Estes. There is a chance he gets rocked. He gave up eight runs on 11 hits in his final Spring Training tune-up, so that’s a bit scary. But, he’s a guy with just a 16.8% career K% at the MLB level. The Cubs did swing and miss a good amount against Arizona to start the season, but they also faced Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt, who are all significantly better than Estes.
Estes faced 75 batters in the Spring and only struck out 10 of them for a 13.3% K%. I think he’ll be okay with pitching to contact given the conditions tonight and hitters are pretty aggressive about trying to put balls in play against him with a 55% Swing% in his MLB innings. The Cubs are running back a pretty similar lineup to last season, just with a very good hitter in Kyle Tucker also in there. They were ninth in SwStr% last season and just outside the top 10 in Chase Rate. I think they’ll fare better in this series than they did in the last one.
Pick: Joey Estes Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)
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