We’re nearing the end of the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Wednesday, March 12th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 12th
NBA Best Bets Today – March 12th
Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat – 8:00 pm ET
The Heat have been struggling lately, losing four consecutive games. The last two also happened to be home games against the Bulls and Hornets. That’s not great for a team that is chasing the top spot in the division. However, it should be noted that Miami is finally getting somewhat healthy. Nikola Jovic is out for the team tonight, but we should see pretty much everybody else. And this team is only going to get better as Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell, two of the Heat’s deadline acquisitions, play more minutes with everybody and get used to the system. And I really like Miami’s chances against Los Angeles tonight.
As ridiculous as this number is, the Clippers are 0-10 against the spread in away games in the second half of the season. Los Angeles just hasn’t been a trustworthy team when playing on the road, and going to Miami always presents some challenges.
We just need to hope that Miami can execute offensively against a great Los Angeles defense, but I’d be surprised if we don’t see a nice performance after a four-game losing streak. Also, under Erik Spoelstra, the Heat are 13-2 straight-up in home games when coming off a loss by 3 or fewer against division rivals.
It’s also possible that I’m burying the most important thing here, but Los Angeles played a somewhat tight game in New Orleans last night. That means we won’t see Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers tonight, and he’ll be joined by Norm Powell and Ben Simmons on the inactive list.
Bet: Heat -1.5 (-114 – 1.5 units)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics – 7:30 pm ET
Going into this game, motivation will be extremely important. Oklahoma City gets up for every regular season game, but Boston has been guilty of sleep-walking at certain points this season. However, I’d be surprised if the Celtics can’t find some intensity against the best team in the Western Conference.
The Thunder also happen to have a pretty troubling injury report coming into this one. Not only is Jalen Williams out this evening, but Alex Caruso is questionable. Sure, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis are also questionable for the Celtics, so things aren’t perfect for Boston. But this is the third game in four days for Oklahoma City, so the team is already facing an uphill battle when it comes to a rest spot. That said, being without Williams sounds rough, as he’s the only player outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander that can be counted on to create consistent offense for the Thunder. And Gilgeous-Alexander will be in a rough spot tonight, as he’ll be hounded by Jrue Holiday and Derrick White all night.
It’s also hard to ignore that the Celtics are 18-3 straight-up and 15-6 against the spread as home favorites of 6 or less under Joe Mazzulla. The games that get Boston are the ones in which the team is favored by 10 or more against a mediocre opponents.
Bet: Celtics -1.5 (-120 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 12th
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets – 10:00 pm ET
A quick look at our NBA Prop Bet Analyzer shows that Jaden McDaniels has gone Over his combined points, rebounds and assists total in 12 of the last 15 games. Well, I don’t see any reason to go away from it here. Since the start of March, McDaniels is averaging 17.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game. He has been tremendous in every aspect of the game, and it’s nice that he has continued his good run of play even with Julius Randle back in the mix. McDaniels also happened to have 13 points, eight rebounds and four assists the last time he saw Denver, and that was before this recent bump in production. So, this matchup hasn’t been bad for McDaniels in the past, and it should only be better this evening. This is the third game in four days for Denver, so there should be some tired legs on defense.
Bet: McDaniels Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)
New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 pm ET
Karl-Anthony Towns had three assists in just 28 minutes in a win over the Kings last game, and I would be surprised if the big man doesn’t have at least three against the Blazers tonight. With Jalen Brunson out, New York has no choice but to run some more offense through Towns, who is clearly the second-best player on the team. And while Towns should be able to do a ton of damage as a scorer in this game, don’t sleep on his ability to spot out cutters and open shooters. Also, I really like the matchup for Towns. While this Blazers team has had some stretches in which it has turned things up defensively, the team is just 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating over the last five games. The group has been a bit disjointed over the last few weeks, so Towns should be able to take advantage.
Bet: Towns Over 2.5 Assists (-108)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Suns Alt Spread +10.5 vs. Rockets & Timberwolves Alt Spread +10.5 vs. Nuggets (-119 – 1.5 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 296-302-3 (-3.82 units)
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