2025 American Athletic Conference Basketball Tournament
Last season, UAB earned an 85-69 win over Temple in the finals of the American Athletic Conference tournament. It was the first time since 2021 that Memphis didn’t at least reach the championship, but many believe the Tigers will be right back in the finals this year. Penny Hardaway’s team just went 26-5 overall and 16-2 in AAC play, and this is a group that has what it takes to make a run in the NCAA Tournament. However, just like in previous years, nothing is certain in this conference. This might end up being a one-bid league when all is said and done, but a couple of teams are capable of giving Memphis some trouble. With all of that in mind, keep reading for our picks and predictions for what should be a fantastic five days of action.
How to Watch the American Athletic Conference Tournament
When: March 12 – 16
Where: Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas
Format: Seeding based on record in conference; top-four seeds receive byes to quarterfinals
Watch: ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPN+; Championship Game on ESPN at 3:15 pm ET on March 15
College Basketball Odds | College Basketball Betting Splits | Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines | Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings
American Athletic Conference Tournament Bracket
American Athletic Conference Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds
- Memphis Tigers (-105)
- North Texas Mean Green (+190)
- UAB Blazers (+750)
- Tulane Green Wave (17-1)
- Florida Atlantic Owls (14-1)
- East Carolina Pirates (55-1)
- Temple Owls (40-1)
- Wichita State Shockers (30-1)
- South Florida Bulls (120-1)
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane (300-1)
- UTSA Roadrunners (75-1)
- Rice Owls (100-1)
- Charlotte 49ers (1000-1)
(odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)
Favorite To Win American Athletic Conference Tournament
Memphis is the betting favorite to throw it back to 2023 and win the AAC tournament. The Tigers are the 47th-ranked team in our VSiN Power Ratings. They’re also a top-50 group for KenPom, and EvanMiya has the Tigers as the 37th-ranked team in Relative Rating. Memphis is just a rock-solid defensive team. At the absolute worst, they’re the second-best defensive team in the conference. However, they also happen to have the conference’s second-leading scorer in PJ Haggerty (21.2 points per game). And he’s not the only superb guard on this Tigers team. All in all, there’s a reason Memphis only lost two games in conference play, and both of those losses came in close games on the road. Let’s see if the Tigers can continue to march through the AAC field over the next week or so.
American Athletic Conference Tournament Darkhorse
If you’re not taking one of the favorites, you might want to take a shot on Wichita State. The Shockers had an up-and-down year, but they dealt Memphis one of their only AAC losses of the season. Wichita State also played two extremely close games against North Texas, showing that the team has what it takes to compete with the very best this conference has to offer. The Shockers also happen to look a little better than their record when you look at advanced stats. The one thing that’s really holding the team back is some abysmal 3-point shooting. Wichita State shoots only 29.1% from 3 and is also just 360th in the nation in 3-point rate. The Shockers will need to knock down some shots in order to make a run this week. But they are a good defensive team and they play hard every night.
Players to Watch in American Athletic Conference Tournament
Haggerty is the most explosive offensive player for Memphis. The 6-foot-3 guard enters the tournament after having scored at least 20 points in seven of his last 10 games, and there’s very little that opponents can do to keep him from scoring. Tyrese Hunter, who you might remember from Iowa State and Texas, is also excellent in the backcourt. And Dain Dainja and Colby Rogers are two other consistent contributors for this Tigers team. As the only non-guard amongst the players listed above, Dainja is inherently very important. Memphis will need him to play well inside this week.
For North Texas, Atin Wright is the player to keep an eye on. The Mean Green have eight players that play at least 21.4 minutes per game, so anybody can step up and be a key contributor on any given night. However, Wright plays just about 30 minutes every game. He’s one of the best shooters in the conference, knocking down 41.7% of his 3s on 6.6 attempts per game. North Texas is a good defensive team, but the offense lags behind. So, it’s imperative that Wright gets it going in this tournament. However, Brenen Lorient is another big-time player for this Mean Green team, even if his stats don’t pop quite like Wright’s. Lorient is a versatile forward that gets the job done on both ends of the floor.
UAB is once again led by last year’s tournament MVP Yaxel Lendeborg. The forward is averaging 17.1 points, 10.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.6 steals per game for the Blazers. Lendeborg can do absolutely everything there is to do on a basketball court, and he has the highest BPM in the AAC. UAB will be a popular pick this week because of his ability to dominate games, and Lendeborg isn’t alone. Three other players on the Blazers average double figures in scoring, and this rotation has eight solid players.
Another player that deserves a shout is Temple’s Jamal Mashburn Jr., who is the AAC’s leading scorer at 22.0 points per game. Mashburn hasn’t played since early February, but he’s listed as day-to-day and the Owls haven’t ruled him out for the tournament. If he returns, he’s the type of player that can spark a tournament run.
It’s also hard not to shine a light on Wichita State’s Quincy Ballard, who is fourth in the conference in BPM and gives the Shockers a dimension that a lot of other teams in the AAC don’t have. He’s a legitimate game changer at the center position.
Betting Pick to Win The American Athletic Conference Tournament
While Memphis beat North Texas during the regular season, the Tigers were playing at home and only won that game by four points. On a neutral floor, things should tilt a little more towards the Mean Green. And that’s especially true with that neutral floor being a 45-minute drive from the University of North Texas. That said, I would roll with the Mean Green to win this tournament. There’s a +210 price out there. The reality is that North Texas is right on par with Memphis defensively, and the team should be able to rise to the occasion offensively in a more favorable setting. Motivation will also be on the Mean Green’s side, as they need to win this tournament in order to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Makinen Power Ratings for American Athletic Conference
Steve Makinen’s Betting Trends for the AAC Conference Tournament
- Opening round single-digit favorites are just 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%) in their last 21 tries in the AAC tourney.
- In the American quarterfinals, underdogs of 6 points or less that played in the opening round are on a 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS (70%) stretch vs. teams that enjoyed a bye. In that same span since 2014, underdogs of 6.5 points or higher are 1-20 SU and 9-12 ATS (42.9%).
- In the nine-year history of the AAC tourney, Under the total is 6-3-1 (66.7%) in the championship game. Favorites are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS (70%) in those contests, allowing just 60.4 PPG.
- It’s not a frequent occurrence, as the AAC has been a relatively lower-scoring league, but totals of 146.5 or more in the tourney have gone 8-3 Under (72.7%) since 2016.
More Steve Makinen Conference Tournament Betting Trends.
Check out the other previews in our 2025 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.
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