Los Angeles Angels 2025 preview
It is entirely possible that the Los Angeles Angels hit rock bottom last season. Even dating back to their days as the California Angels, last season’s 99 losses were the most in franchise history. It was a fitting type of result given that Shohei Ohtani signed with the hated Dodgers and the Angels inexplicably held on to him in the midst of a lost season rather than trying to get a big trade package that could have reshaped the direction of the organization.
This is an organization that hasn’t had a winning season since dropping “of Anaheim” from the name following the 2015 campaign. And that was a team that finished -14 in run differential and got very fortunate to finish on the plus side of break-even. The Angels have one playoff appearance in the last 15 seasons. Big-money free agents haven’t panned out. Not spending hasn’t panned out. This has consistently been one of the worst farm systems in baseball. The list goes on and on.
But, it does seem like much-maligned owner Arte Moreno is ready to try and improve the ballclub. The Halos were one of the more active teams in free agency. I don’t know that they brought in a ton of impact guys, but Jorge Soler, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Travis d’Arnaud, J.D. Davis, Yusei Kikuchi, Kyle Hendricks, and Kenley Jansen are all big-league names with some pedigree. It would also help if that Mike Trout guy could play more than 29 games.
Quantity over quality won’t get it done, not even in the AL West, where I believe that the top of the division could be coming back to the pack. Any upgrades for the Angels could be helpful on the heels of a 63-99 season, especially if those low commitments lead to Trade Deadline opportunities.
But, I’ll be honest. It looks like another long season in Anaheim.
2025 Los Angeles Angels Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 24)
World Series: +20000
AL Pennant: +12000
AL West: +3000
Win Total: 71.5 (-120/+100)
Make Playoffs: Yes +900 / No -1800
Los Angeles Angels Preview: Offense
This was a poor offense last season. The Angels were 27th in wOBA at .296 and posted just a 90 wRC+. Remember, they get graded on a pretty beneficial curve because Angel Stadium can be a tough place to hit with the heavy air and other atmospheric factors, but they were still 10% below league average when adjusted for the run environment and the park factor.
As a baseball fan, it has been really sad to see what has happened to Mike Trout. I can only imagine what it’s like as an Angels fan. Trout has played 36, 119, 82, and 29 games over the last four seasons. It has been a variety of different injuries that have had him sidelined, so we can’t really point to one single thing. He’s still a tremendously productive player when he’s out there, but he turns 34 in August and I can’t imagine that things get better on the health front.
The Angels are moving Trout to RF to put him in a corner and may even use him as a DH more often. The problem there is that the Angels signed Jorge Soler, who is a decent power bat, but an abominable outfielder. Trout serving as the DH in certain parks, with certain pitchers, in certain matchups, makes sense. Soler, who only hit 21 homers last season and saw a pretty big drop from his 36-homer effort in 2023, adds a nice element of offense thanks to his walk rate and power potential, but does cut into some of that with his defensive foibles and below average baserunning.
Speaking of injury worries, the Angels have to hope that Zach Neto’s growth isn’t stunted by the shoulder surgery that he had in November. He’s expected to miss the start of the season after posting a solid .330 wOBA and 114 wRC+. He’s a kid that hit at every level in the minors and just turned 24 in January. Another leap from Neto would be big for the long-term future of the team, but I’m always wary of shoulder injuries and how they can cut into power production. Neto hit 23 HR last season and stole 30 bags.
The glass half-full approach would be to say that Neto, Taylor Ward, Nolan Schanuel, and Logan O’Hoppe are all above average hitters. They’re all back in the mix and guys like Schanuel and O’Hoppe, specifically, have higher ceilings and more room for growth as young hitters than their predecessors. I don’t think we’ll ever get the Jo Adell breakout, but I guess he did have some gains in Hard Hit% and Barrel% that are really promising. That’s more than I can say for Schanuel’s really bad contact quality. At least he walks a lot to offset what could be a drop in batting average.
The glass half-empty approach would be to say that the Angels really haven’t had a lot of success developing internally. As the league adjusts to Neto, Schanuel, and O’Hoppe, will they be able to adjust back? Case in point, O’Hoppe batted .276/.328/.472 in the first half with 14 of his 20 homers. He batted .196/.266/.312 in the second half with a 64 wRC+ and struck out over 38% of the time.
And unless Trout is healthy, what does an upgrade mean for those guys? Being a few points of wRC+ better? That’ll help, and maybe get the team back into the 70s in the ‘W’ column, but what does that mean?
Los Angeles Angels Preview: Pitching
It takes a lot of bad performance to lose 99 games. So, it should come as no surprise that the Angels were 26th in ERA and 29th in FIP last season. Only the Rockies struck out a lower percentage of batters and those poor guys have to deal with pitching in Denver half of the time. The Angels don’t have that excuse. But, to exacerbate their issues, they also had the second-highest BB% in the league.
Successes were few and far between here. Jose Soriano was a revelation, as he had a 3.42 ERA with a 4.14 xERA and a 3.80 FIP in his 113 innings. Griffin Canning was a bust over 31 starts and he’s now with the Mets. Tyler Anderson led the rotation with 179.1 innings and he’s back, partnering up with southpaw Yusei Kikuchi at the top of the depth chart.
Kikuchi signed a three-year, $63 million deal with the Angels very early in free agency. After really struggling in his first four seasons after coming over from Japan, the 34-year-old left-hander has found himself, racking up 5.9 fWAR over the last two seasons. He’s found a little more consistent velocity and had his best K/BB season last year with 206 K and 44 BB. He had a 4.75 ERA in Toronto with a 3.66 FIP before getting traded to the Astros, where they optimized his arsenal and he had a 2.70 ERA with a 3.07 FIP in 60 innings.
He’s a solid pitcher and being in Anaheim should help his high home run rate. Of course, being in Seattle really didn’t do it, so I guess we’ll see. If Soriano is legit and Anderson can continue his career resurgence, the rotation looks a tad more promising than last season. After all, the Angels used 18 different starting pitchers.
One of those was Reid Detmers, who threw 87.1 innings with a 6.70 ERA, but a 4.14 xERA and a 4.72 FIP. The Angels actually sent him down to the minors for some reason, even though they weren’t going anywhere and he’s one of their most talented arms. I’d love to see him traded somewhere that values pitching development. He’s in the mix to start, but I think he’d be better off with a fresh start.
I guess the Angels are hoping Kyle Hendricks has something left after an atrocious 2024 campaign. He had a 5.92 ERA with a 4.81 xERA and a 4.98 FIP as his K% plummeted and his BB rate rose. I’m not a fan of him, even in this park, but the Angels might be better defensively, so that could help. All in all, this rotation is subpar and not that much improved, even with Kikuchi on board.
The Jansen add is nice in the pen and Ben Joyce is a fireballer with health concerns. I don’t see a good bullpen here and if one of the top two get hurt, it’s a bottom-five group.
Los Angeles Angels Player to Watch
1B Nolan Schanuel
Let’s talk a little bit more about Schanuel. The 11th pick in the 2023 MLB Draft got to the bigs very quick. In one season of minor league ball across three levels, he slashed .365/.505/.487. His strike zone awareness is impeccable and he can get himself into good hitter’s counts, which helps the average and on-base percentage. But, the .362 SLG is what stands out to me and why I think pitchers will adjust and challenge him more.
Growth is possible. He had a 93rd percentile Squared-Up% with a 91st percentile Chase% and a 96th percentile Whiff%. When he swings, he doesn’t miss. However, he also had a 7th percentile average exit velocity, a 9th percentile Barrel%, and a 4th percentile Hard Hit%. His bat speed ranks in the 2nd percentile. He does not project to be a guy to drive the baseball. He had a 3.5% Barrel%, around hitters like Andres Gimenez and Bryson Stott.
I think he’s a smart, savvy hitter and he’ll continue to walk to produce value, but I don’t think his ceiling is much above what we saw.
Los Angeles Angels Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
Will the Angels avoid 90 losses this season? That’s basically what this win total line is asking you. Are there enough improvements here with Kikuchi, some MLB-caliber bats, and maaaaaybe more than 29 games from Trout? I could see a scenario in which that happens. They won 73 games in 2022 and 2023, so that’s kind of what you’re looking for and I don’t think this team is that much worse. You know, except for the whole missing Ohtani thing.
There just isn’t a lot of ceiling here. Any offensive gains are likely to be nominal at best and maybe offset by regression from other guys. The rotation is underwhelming and so is the bullpen. But, that’ll always be the case with a team that has a win total in the low 70s. I don’t see much growth here and this is the fifth-best team in the AL West to me, so I lean Under, but not strongly enough to bet it with such a low line.
Lean: Under 71.5
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