NFL Conference Championship Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:
We are down to four teams in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy this season, and conference championship Sunday is always one of the best football days of the year. After pouring through another big VSiN NFL Analytics Report and an in-depth trends piece dedicated specifically to the championship round of the playoffs, I’m here to share my best bets for the weekend. My season record sits at 86-83-3 ATS (50.9%) after a disappointing divisional-round performance. Although we both won based on the line we got on the Kansas City-Houston game, do you know who is 2-0 so far in the playoffs? My guy Bill Adee’s AI strategy that he has been sharing in his morning newsletter, is based on my round-by-round trend pieces. Hopefully, you saw those tidbits in the newsletter, as I have found them to be fascinating. He offered another selection for Sunday: Philadelphia -6…should I fade or follow? Read on to find out!
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Going back to May of this past year, I wrote this about the Commanders as I offered my season win-total prop wagers for the season: “The moves the franchise has made in the offseason is the reason I think this team has a chance for the biggest improvement from season-to-season of anyone.” At the time, I loved the head coach Dan Quinn hire after all the work he did as Dallas’ defensive coordinator. I also loved the dynamic threat that QB Jayden Daniels brought to the table. In my opinion, those are the specific reasons we are where we are. Will it be enough to get them to the ultimate destination, a Super Bowl? Well, so much has changed in Washington lately, in particular since Monday, that I say…why not?
I have looked at this game from all different perspectives, and I keep coming back to this. I just can‘t see how, like last week versus the Rams, this recently one-dimensional Philadelphia offense is going to separate, especially with the weather forecasted to be seasonably mild on Sunday. Laying the 6 points just doesn’t sit well with me. I would be much more inclined to take Philly on a money line. However, I’m here to pick a point spread and/or total winner, and my deciding factor was the recent conference championship scoring totals trends: The benchmark for home success increases to 30 points this round. Hosts that score 30 points or more are on a 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS (83.3%) surge. Those that don’t reach the 30-point mark are 14-14 SU and 8-20 ATS (28.6%) since 2002.
On the other side, the magic point total for road teams in conference championship playoff action is even more definitive however, and that benchmark has proven to be 20 points. Visitors scoring 20 points or more are 17-14 SU and 22-8-1 ATS (73.3%) when they reach that mark since 1998. When scoring less than 20 points, the record of the road teams has dropped dramatically to 3-24 SU and 7-20 ATS (25.9%) since 1995. Philly scored 30+ points only six times this season in 18 games. Washington scored 20+ points in all but two games.
If you’re looking for trends, these are some of my favorites: 1) Washington is 26-12-1 ATS (68.4%) when coming off a SU win since 2019 2) Philadelphia is 20-4 Under the total in January games since 2011. 3) Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 30-35 SU but 41-22-2 ATS (65.1%) since 2004. And 4) In the last 27 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone 15-12 SU but just 10-17 ATS (37%). This trend dates back to 2003.
More on that last angle of this being a divisional game and a rematch of Washington’s 36-33 win in December, Philadelphia is just 9-12 SU and 6-14-1 ATS in the last 21 rematch games and teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent and were then favored in the playoff contest are just 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS (29.4%) since 2017. I think this game is tight throughout, and I don’t discount Washington’s chances to pull an upset.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll call for a 24-21 decision, Washington +6 and Under 47.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I have been trying to talk myself into different ways in which Buffalo might be able to go into Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday and emerge victorious, and I keep coming back to one particular point: Teams that struggle early in their playoff quests to reach the top typically continue to do so throughout. Name a recent team that defies that line of thinking? The Bills, with the current core of head coach Sean McDermott & QB Josh Allen just have never been able to climb to the top of the mountain. Now granted, last week’s win may have been a good step in getting to that point, but the top of the mountain is still in front of them, and we all know who that is…their nemesis, the Chiefs.
The Bills are 0-3 SU and ATS against QB Patrick Mahomes and KC. Not surprising since Mahomes boasts a 28-10 SU & 23-13 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019. The fact that the Bills offense is deemed to be so much better this season than KC’s is moot in that road teams outscoring their home opponent offensively by 5.0+ PPG have really struggled in the NFL playoffs of late, 3-12 SU and 4-10-1 ATS since 2004. I personally believe neither the Bills nor the Ravens get to the point they want to until head coach Andy Reid’s team is no longer in the picture.
I also see the argument that this Buffalo team is “different” in that they are no longer afflicted by questionable decision-making and turnovers. However, road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 4-21 SU and 9-16 ATS (36%) since 2004.
I know everyone is just hoping for someone new in the Super Bowl, in particular, someone other than the Chiefs that seem to get the benefit of the doubt every time, but when I see that hosts favored by less than 7 points are 17-6 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2%) in their last 23 conference championship tries, and home teams are 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS (61.1%) in the last 18 AFC title clashes,
I can’t help but think KC, at 15-2, is underpriced at -1.5. I also can better appreciate that the “public bettors” at DraftKings are backing the Bills, but the sharper group at Circa is siding with KC. Regarding the total, this is one of my favorite angles: matchups pitting a #1 seed versus a #2 seed in the conference championship games have trended Over the total at a 13-5-1 (72.2%) rate since 2002. This will apply to the Chiefs-Bills contest, one that features perhaps the two best QBs in the league.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll say 27-24 Chiefs, KC -1.5 and Over 47.5.
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