NFL Divisional Round Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:
After publishing a fresh Analytics Report and an in-depth trends piece dedicated specifically to the divisional round of the playoffs, I’m here to share my best bets for the week. My season record sits at 85-80-2 ATS (51.5%), and we’re down to the final seven games of the season. Here are my NFL Divisional Round best bets.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
For as good as Kansas City looked in the three games prior to shutting down their starters versus Denver, it looms in the back of my mind that the Chiefs have not hit the 31-point mark all season long. In looking at my divisional round playoff trends article for this week, it has taken more points to win in the divisional playoff round as opposed to the wild card round.
Last week, I explained that only five home teams that had topped the 20-point mark lost in the last 23 years of wild card playoff action. They were 6-0 SU and ATS last week! The benchmark for the divisional round is a touchdown higher at 27 points, as home teams that reach that point total are 43-5 SU and 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2002, including both home covers in 2024. Failing to reach the 27-point mark has left home teams with a 20-24 SU and 7-35-2 ATS (16.7%) record since 2002 in divisional playoff games.
Let’s face it, though. This is the two-time defending champs playing, and Patrick Mahomes is still guiding the Chiefs offense. The odds/total combination only has them getting 25, but I think there is a good chance that this team has been playing “possum,” particularly in the second half of the season, as they have worked in some new/returning weapons.
Take a look at the trend on Mahomes as a big favorite: 33-2 SU but 12-22-1 ATS (35.3%) in his last 35 games as a favorite of more than 7 points (the average line was -10.7, team average PF: 27.8). That last part is noteworthy, in that his teams are still averaging nearly 28 PPG in that “losing trend.” Plus, in the playoffs, I really don’t like hoping for win/no cover scenarios. It does happen, but I don’t feel comfortable playing to that. Do we really think Houston can win outright? I don’t.
Road teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have struggled terribly in the NFL playoffs, going 8-27 SU and 11-24 ATS (31.4%) since 2009. Plus, much of what happened last week for head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team came as a result of the Chargers’ mistakes or fluky offensive bustouts. There were times, the whole first quarter, in fact, that the Texans looked inept. We can completely disregard the Chiefs’ season-ending loss to Denver as well, as teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce-back teams in the next outing, going 36-24-2 ATS (60%) since 2012. With favorites on runs of 12-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the HOU-KC series, and Saturday divisional home teams 25-5 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) over the last 15 seasons, I’ll back the Chiefs to start the divisional round with a convincing win.
NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: I’ll lay the 8.5 points with Kansas City
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
I have gone back & forth all week long on this game, debating as to whether or not Washington QB Jayden Daniels and his unique talent set can keep his team in the game. This is another game where I don’t feel like the underdog can win, and in the end, I just struggle with that line of wagering. This just feels like the Lions’ year to reach the sport’s ultimate stage, especially with how they ended the season in blowout fashion over the Vikings to secure the #1 seed.
Look at some of the key trends going in their direction: 1) Detroit is 17-4 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018 2) Detroit is 14-7 SU and 18-4 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019. 3) Detroit is on 19-10 SU and 21-7-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record.
There are other reasons you should be skeptical of Washington and the rookie Daniels, despite his unique ability to avoid turnovers this season. Look at this trend: Road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 3-19 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) since 2004. Furthermore, since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 20 games, going 20-124 SU and 56-84-4 ATS (40%), and in their last 18 playoff games, rookie quarterbacks are just 6-12 SU and ATS (33.3%). Take away Joe Flacco’s 2009 run and the record drops to 4-11 SU and ATS.
Bo Nix was overwhelmed last week against a superior opponent on the road. It could happen here, too. This head-to-head series has also been one of home dominance, with hosts going 12-3 SU and ATS since 1995. Ask yourself this: do we really see Detroit not getting 27 points here? Remember, home teams that reach that point total in this round are 43-5 SU and 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2002.
NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: I’ll lay the 8.5 points with Detroit
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4 p.m. ET
For anyone who watched the Eagles and Rams games last weekend and doesn’t believe LA has a chance in this game, I’d love to know why. I get the weather argument and the fact that the Eagles had a much better record than the Rams this season, but much of that is moot compared to how the teams are playing.
With as bad as the Eagles offense looked, in particular QB Jalen Hurts, had Philly been playing anyone other than a beat-up Packers’ roster, they probably wouldn’t be around this week. In what figures to have been better weather last week, Hurts and the Eagles gained just 121 yards passing and 5.3 yards per attempt. The Rams meanwhile dominated the Vikings passing attack, allowing just 3.3 yards per attempt. That is an insane number and gives them a good shot this week.
I’m not saying that I believe the Rams are for sure going to advance here, because it truthfully is a tough spot, but this is the one situation where I’m not comfortable this weekend in laying the big points with the host. The Rams have been fantastic in short rest scenarios, going 16-5 SU and 16-4 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018. And on the list of best NFL road rematch teams lately, you’ll find the Rams at 10-3 SU and 12-1 ATS in the last 13 on the road.
Most of what I have points to a lower-scoring game, especially with Philadelphia 20-3 Under the total in January games since 2011. If you go back in my divisional trends piece from this week, you will see that home teams that have covered the point spread in divisional round games are also on a 20-6-1 Over (76.9%) the total surge. Hosts averaged 33.5 PPG in those contests. Alternatively, road team covers have seen 16 Unders and 6 Overs (72.7%) since 2014. The hosts scored 11.2 PPG fewer in those road covers. In essence, home teams cover with offense. Road teams cover with defense. I think this game has 20-17 written all over it.
NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: I’ll take the Rams +6 and Under 44
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
The exclusive VSiN NFL Analytics Report this week offered up what I believe to be the “trend of the week” in terms of this year’s divisional round, and it applies to this game: Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent by 21 points or more are just 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS (33.3%) in the playoffs since 2012, including 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home.
If you forgot, the Ravens smoked the Bills 35-10 back in Week 4. At the time, it was expected to be a measuring stick type of game. Buffalo recovered and somehow wound up with a better record and home game here, but it does leave me, and the rest of the betting world for that matter, believing that head coach John Harbaugh’s team is the better one. Why else would they be favored? Are oddsmakers telling us who is going to win?
More on the earlier game between these teams. Did you know that Baltimore is on a 15-3 ATS run in its last 18 road rematch games? The Ravens are 44-22 ATS (66.7%) in road/neutral games since 2017 overall. Perhaps more impressively, Baltimore’s head coach John Harbaugh is on an 8-2 SU and 9-0 ATS run vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG. The Ravens are also 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games versus Buffalo. Looking at some recent playoff history in matchups just like this one, home teams that won one or two games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3 points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 11-20 SU and 10-21 ATS (32.3%) in their last 31 playoff tries.
With the Bills offense scoring 30.9 PPG in the regular season, we must also concern ourselves that home teams scoring 30+ points per game but not installed as double-digit favorites have not been good betting options in the postseason, going 13-21 ATS (38.2%) since 2004. The weather figures to play a factor here, but this Ravens team is more prepared than ever to deal with the snow and Buffalo crowd.
NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: I’ll go Baltimore -1.5 here to extend the Bills’ playoff woes
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