In the second of two Christmas Day matchups in Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season, the Houston Texans host the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium. We’ll continue diving into all of the stand-alone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 17 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Ravens vs. Texans
When: Wednesday, December 25th at 4:30 pm ET
Where: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
Channel: Netflix
Ravens vs. Texans Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, December 23rd. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Ravens -218, Texans +180
Spread: Ravens -4 (-112), Texans +4 (-108)
Total: Over 47.5 (-108), Under 47.5 (-112)
Ravens vs. Texans Analysis
Laying 3.5 or 4 points can be a bitter pill to swallow in the NFL, but the early indications are that public bettors are happy to do it with Baltimore. Our VSiN DraftKings betting splits page and Circa betting splits page show that most of the tickets and money in the second Christmas Day game have come in on the Ravens. And while you typically want to stay away from betting heavy public favorites, that might be the way to go in this game.
The Ravens have some issues defensively. They’re still a bottom-10 team when it comes to Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.111). However, the Texans are very beat up in their receiving core. Sure, Nico Collins is back for Houston. He’s C.J. Stroud’s favorite target and he looks completely healthy. But losing Tank Dell is a blow to an offense that already lost Stefon Diggs for the season. And if the Ravens just have to worry about one pass-catching option throughout this game, they should be able to figure it out. Baltimore is a very good team when it comes to rushing defense, so Joe Mixon shouldn’t really go crazy here. It will just be a matter of how much Stroud can do in his head-to-head duel against Lamar Jackson. And I don’t think that’s going to go well for the second-year quarterback — especially without his full group of weapons.
This Baltimore team has an EPA per play of 0.196 on the season, and there isn’t a better team in the league when it comes to Dropback EPA per play (0.332). Well, Houston might be a good team when it comes to Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.024), but I have doubts about whether the Texans secondary can make enough plays in this game. Derrick Henry is going to find some holes to hit in the running game. That will inevitably open up some opportunities for Jackson to hit some home runs down the field. He’ll also undoubtedly do some damage with his legs.
Baltimore’s defense makes the team beatable, and that’s why the team has had an up-and-down regular season. But it takes a very good offensive team to keep pace with the Ravens. Sure, the Texans will have some long, successful drives of their own, and they might be able to keep up for a while. But there will probably be a few possessions in which Houston comes up short, and that should be enough to make the difference.
The Texans are also 1-2 against the spread when facing teams that average 4.9 or more yards per carry this season. And they’re 1-3-1 ATS on a short week. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 4-1 both SU and ATS as road favorites of 7 or fewer points.
If you don’t want to deal with laying more than a field goal, there’s always the Over. While the number is pretty high, these teams won’t have to deal with any elements playing in a retractable roof stadium. Baltimore has gone Over in 12 of the 15 games it has played this season. And while Houston is 5-9-1 to the Under this year, it’s far more likely that the Ravens suck the Texans into a shootout. It’s also entirely possible that we see Baltimore jump up to an early lead, which would then mean that Houston would have to pass the rest of the way. That would be a great scenario for Over bettors with this Ravens secondary.
Ravens vs. Texans Player Props
Mark Andrews Anytime TD Scorer (+210)
This was my play when the Ravens took on the Steelers last week. Andrews was going off at better than +200 to score, despite having found the end zone in three consecutive games. Well, now that Andrews has scored in four straight games and eight of his last 10, I’m not going away from it. Andrews might not be the same target monster he was in previous years, but he’s as good as any tight end when it comes to carving out space in the end zone. And Jackson is always looking to put it on him. So, I’m riding the hot hand with another plus-money touchdown scorer play.
Ravens vs. Texans Pick
I’m not planning to play this game right now, but I’ll consider coming in on the Ravens if the spread drops. However, if forced into action here, I’d pay up a little to lay 3 with Baltimore. I think the Ravens are a little too talented for the Texans, but I do have a good amount of respect for DeMeco Ryans. He has been a good big-game coach in his time in Houston. I might look into parlaying Baltimore moneyline with something over the weekend, so check out our Pro Picks page to see how I attack this one.
Lean: Ravens -3 (-128)
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