College Football Bowl Game Betting Trends:
The following betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football bowl games occurring after December 25, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top betting trends and systems for this section’s college football bowl games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* DUKE is 32-14 (69.6%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2014
Trend Match: PLAY DUKE (+14.5 vs. Ole Miss)
*College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 60-43-2 ATS (58.3%) over the last 10 years.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (-2.5 vs. Vandy), USC (+3.5 vs. Texas AandM)
* VIRGINIA TECH is 7-21 (25%) ATS in the last 28 games following up a SU win
Trend Match: FADE VIRGINIA TECH (+6.5 vs. Minnesota)
* BUFFALO is 15-14 SU and 19-10 ATS (65.5%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-2 vs. Liberty)
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections: MIAMI (FL) -3 vs. Iowa St (+5.9 difference)
Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2024 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another.
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this section’s games as of Monday, December 23, 2024. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. We will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%), although a slight improvement at 34-36 ATS in 2024. This angle has produced at around a 46% consistently since first discovered, so I would expect an end of season slow down. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOWLING GREEN, TEXAS TECH, SYRACUSE, TEXAS A&M, NC STATE, COLORADO, MISSOURI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, TEXAS STATE, MINNESOTA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 231-251 ATS (47.9%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. This year it is actually 67-63 ATS, so I would expect this to cool down over the rest of the season. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS A&M, NORTH CAROLINA, MIAMI (FL), NC STATE, COLORADO, ARMY, MISSOURI, LOUISVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA, GEORGIA, NORTH TEXAS, MINNESOTA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 405-444 ATS (47.7%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS ST, NAVY, GEORGIA TECH, TEXAS TECH, SYRACUSE, TEXAS A&M, BOSTON COLLEGE, ARMY, MISSOURI, ALABAMA, LOUISVILLE, TEXAS, OREGON, TEXAS STATE, MINNESOTA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 52. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 57-44 (56.4%). This remains pretty rare, as it occurred in only 12 of 406 games this season.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): EAST CAROLINA-NC STATE, NORTH TEXAS-TEXAS STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 26-15 (63.4%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKLAHOMA-NAVY, IOWA-MISSOURI
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 76-49 (60.8%), improving this season a bit after a 24-15 start. This system also improved its win percentage in 2023, so it’s on an upward climb. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of the number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIAMI (OH)-COLORADO STATE, LA TECH-ARMY, ALABAMA-MICHIGAN, MINNESOTA-VA TECH
CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a slight majority number of money line bets on a team (51-60%), bettors boast a respectable 26-19 SU (57.7%) record for +5.37 units of profit and an ROI of 11.9%. This has happened in only about one of every ten games on average, so it is rare.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): GA TECH ML, COLORADO STATE ML, BUFFALO ML
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
Best College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)
* BUFFALO is 15-14 SU and 19-10 ATS (65.5%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-2 vs. Liberty)
Neutral field underdogs are great in revenge
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 49-30 ATS (62%).
System Match (PLAY): OHIO STATE (*if they become underdogs vs. Oregon)
Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter
Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 692-605 ATS (53.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ALABAMA (-11 vs. Michigan), OHIO STATE (-2.5 vs. Oregon)
Extreme stat next game CFB betting systems
Playing well offensively but losing a good sign for the next outing
College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 60-43-2 ATS (58.3%) over the last 10 years.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (-2.5 vs. Vandy), USC (+3.5 vs. Texas A&M)
Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders
Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 78-52 ATS (60%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARMY (-17.5 vs. LA Tech), IOWA (+3 vs. Missouri), MICHIGAN (+11 vs. Alabama)
This Section’s College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This section’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARIZONA ST +14 (+5.3)
2. NOTRE DAME +1.5 (+2.7)
3. COLORADO STATE +3 (+2.5)
4(tie). LSU +1.5 (+2.0)
LIBERTY +2 (+2.0)
This section’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI (FL) -3 (+5.9)
2. OLE MISS -14.5 (+4.1)
3. ARKANSAS -2 (+3.5)
4. TEXAS STATE -10.5 (+3.2)
5. PENN STATE -11 (+2.9)
This section’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MICHIGAN +11 (+5.0)
2. DUKE +14.5 (+4.6)
3. VIRGINIA TECH +6.5 (+3.0)
4(tie). COLORADO STATE +3 (+2.6)
ARKANSAS STATE +8 (+2.6)
This section’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LOUISVILLE -2.5 (+4.0)
2. ARMY -17.5 (+3.8)
3. BUFFALO -2 (+2.3)
4. TEXAS STATE -10.5 (+2.0)
5. ARKANSAS -2 (+0.3)
This section’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TEXAS TECH-ARKANSAS OVER 53.5 (+5.1)
2. UCONN-N CAROLINA OVER 53 (+4.3)
3. MINNESOTA-VIRGINIA TECH OVER 42.5 (+3.7)
4. DUKE-OLE MISS OVER 52 (+3.3)
5. IOWA STATE-MIAMI (FL) OVER 56 (+2.6)
This section’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAFAYETTE-TCU UNDER 58 (-5.9)
2. ALABAMA-MICHIGAN UNDER 43 (-3.2)
3. SYRACUSE-WASHINGTON STATE UNDER 59.5 (-3.1)
4. BOSTON COLLEGE-NEBRASKA UNDER 45.5 (-3.0)
5. LOUISVILLE-WASHINGTON UNDER 49.5 (-1.3)
This section’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON ST +16 (+12.7)
2. LIBERTY +2 (+7.8)
3. LA LAFAYETTE +12.5 (+7.5)
4. LSU +1.5 (+6.8)
5. WASHINGTON +2.5 (+5.8)
This section’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ALABAMA -11 (+7.5)
2. OLE MISS -14.5 (+7.4)
3. KANSAS STATE -6.5 (+6.5)
4. ARKANSAS -2 (+6.0)
5. OKLAHOMA -3 (+5.6)
This section’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TEXAS TECH-ARKANSAS OVER 53.5 (+7.3)
2. IOWA STATE-MIAMI (FL) OVER 56 (+6.6)
3. NOTRE DAME-GEORGIA OVER 44 (+5.0)
4. NORTH TEXAS-TEXAS STATE OVER 64 (+4.6)
5. LOUISVILLE-WASHINGTON OVER 49.5 (+2.8)
This section’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DUKE-OLE MISS UNDER 52 (-3.5)
2(tie). PITTSBURGH-TOLEDO UNDER 51 (-3.1)
EAST CAROLINA-NC STATE UNDER 58.5 (-3.1)
4. LA LAFAYETTE-TCU UNDER 58 (-2.5)
5. ARKANSAS STATE-BOWLING GREEN UNDER 53 (-1.2)
Top College Football Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top college football team situational trends that have developed in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA STATE is 26-15-1 (63.4%) ATS as Underdog since 2018
* ARIZONA STATE is 5-8 ATS (38.5%) in the last four seasons in Non-Conference games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA STATE (+13.5 vs. Texas)
* ARKANSAS is Over the total in all four games as a favorite this season
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in TTU-Ark (o/u at 53.5)
* BOWLING GREEN is 7-13 (35%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2019
Trend Match: FADE BOWLING GREEN (-8 vs. Arkansas State)
* BYU is 7-1 to the Over in their last eight games
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in BYU-Colorado (o/u at 54.5)
* DUKE is 32-14 (69.6%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2014
Trend Match: PLAY DUKE (+14.5 vs. Ole Miss)
* GEORGIA is 23-13 (63.9%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2020
Trend Match: PLAY GEORGIA (-1.5 vs. Notre Dame)
* GEORIGA TECH is 8-20-1 ATS (28.6%) as a favorite since 2018
Trend Match: FADE GEORGIA TECH (-2.5 vs. Vanderbilt)
* IOWA STATE is 16-7 (69.6%) ATS as underdog since 2021
Trend Match: PLAY IOWA ST (+3 vs Miami (FL))
* KANSAS STATE is 44-29-2 (60.3%) ATS since 2019
Trend Match: PLAY KANSAS STATE (-6.5 vs. Rutgers)
* LIBERTY is 25-8 (75.8%) ATS as underdog since 2014
Trend Match: PLAY LIBERTY (+2 vs. Buffalo)
* LOUISIANA TECH is 36-22-1 (62.1%) Over the total since 2019
* LOUISIANA TECH is 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season
Trends Match: PLAY LOUISIANA TECH (+17.5 vs. Army), also PLAY OVER the total in LA Tech-Army (o/u at 44)
* LOUISVILLE is 6-11 (35.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2021
Trend Match: FADE LOUISVILLE (-2.5 vs. Washington)
* LSU is 22-14 (61.1%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2019
* LSU is 24-15 (61.5%) Over the total since 2022
Trends Match: PLAY LSU (+1.5 vs Baylor), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 59.5)
* MIAMI (OH) is on a 35-20-1 (63.6%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in Miami (OH)-Colorado State (o/u at 42)
* MICHIGAN is 34-20-1 (63%) ATS in the last four seasons (including 18-7 ATS in Road/Neutral games)
Trend Match: PLAY MICHIGAN (+11 vs. Alabama)
* NORTH CAROLINA is 1-7-1 ATS as a favorite this season
Trend Match: FADE NORTH CAROLINA (-3 vs. UConn)
* OLE MISS is 10-1 to the Under in the last 11 games
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in Duke-Ole Miss (o/u at 52)
* PENN STATE is 34-18 (65.4%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2019
Trend Match: PLAY PENN STATE (-11 vs. Boise State)
* PITTSBURGH is 38-23 (62.3%) Over the total since 2020
* PITTSBURGH has lost five straight SU after starting the season 7-0
Trends Match: FADE PITTSBURGH ML, also PLAY OVER the total in Pitt-Toledo (o/u at 51)
* RUTGERS has gone 13-3 (81.3%) ATS in the last 16 Non-Conference games
* RUTGERS has gone Over the total in six of the last seven games to finish 2024
Trend Match: PLAY RUTGERS (+6.5 vs. Kansas State), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 50.5)
* SOUTH CAROLINA is 14-6 (70%) ATS as a favorite in the last four seasons
Trend Match: PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA (-9.5 vs. Illinois)
* TEXAS A&M is 17-9 (65.4%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2018
Trend Match: PLAY TEXAS A&M (-3.5 vs. USC)
* VIRGINIA TECH is 7-21 (25%) ATS in the last 28 games following up a SU win
Trend Match: FADE VIRGINIA TECH (+6.5 vs. Minnesota)
* WASHINGTON is just 5-8 (38.5%) ATS in the last 13 games following a SU loss
* WASHINGTON is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season
Trends Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+2.5 vs. Louisville)
Top College Football Head-to-Head Series Trend
These are the top head-to-head college football series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(271) OHIO STATE vs. (272) OREGON
*Underdogs have covered all four meetings since 2010
Trend Match: PLAY OREGON (+2.5 vs. OSU)
The post College Football Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends – Bowl Games appeared first on VSiN.
