On Thursday, December 26th, we’ll see the Pittsburgh Panthers take on the Toledo Rockets in the GameAbove Sports Bowl. This is the first of three games on the schedule for Thursday, and this really should be a good one. With that in mind, keep reading for odds, analysis and predictions for this showdown. But make sure you also check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.
GameAbove Sports Bowl: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Toledo Rockets
How To Watch Pittsburgh vs. Toledo
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
When: 2:00 pm ET on Thursday, December 26th
Channel: ESPN
Pittsburgh vs. Toledo Odds
Moneyline: Pittsburgh -250, Toledo +205
Spread: Pittsburgh -6.5 (-115), Toledo +6.5 (-105)
Total: Over 51 (-110), Under 51 (-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. And shop around for the best prices!
Pittsburgh vs. Toledo Prediction
Neither one of these teams enters this game with a whole lot of momentum. Pittsburgh was actually 7-0 at the start of the season, and quarterback Eli Holstein was looking like a sleeper in the Heisman Trophy conversation. But Holstein ended up getting injured and the Panthers unraveled from there. Pat Narduzzi’s team lost its final five games of the year, including a bad home loss against Virginia on November 9th. The offense never really found a rhythm with Nate Yarnell stepping in for Holstein. And the defense couldn’t stop anyone.
Looking to this game, the quarterback situation is a mess for Pittsburgh. Narduzzi has noted that he is hopeful Holstein will be out there, but he’s listed as questionable and there’s no guarantee he’ll be healthy if he plays. And considering Holstein’s ability to run is part of what makes him great, it’s not exactly encouraging that his ankle isn’t in great shape. Yarnell also happens to be in the transfer portal. So, it seems like David Lynch could get the nod here. The freshman has attempted just nine passes this year, and one of them was picked. At that point, does the fact that this is a Power Four versus Group of Five matchup even matter anymore?
The good news for the Panthers is that it seems like Desmond Reid will play. The running back has rushed for 797 yards and four touchdowns on only 151 carries this year, and he’s explosive whenever he has the ball. However, Toledo will be ready to stop the run if Holstein doesn’t play. This Rockets team isn’t great when it comes to Rush EPA per play allowed (0.011), but they might be able to load up the box and dare the Panthers to throw.
Toledo also happens to have a pretty explosive passing game. Tucker Gleason has thrown for 2,457 yards with 22 touchdowns and only seven picks this year, and he should be able to make some big plays over the top in this one.
Overall, Toledo has a little more certainty when it comes to the depth chart. The Rockets did lose a few players to the transfer portal and opt-outs, but it’s nothing compared to what the Panthers are dealing with. Toledo also has the added motivation here, as smaller schools love the chance to compete with the big boys. It’s also a little hard to overlook that Narduzzi is 2-4 both straight-up and against the spread in bowl games.
I’m not going to play every single bowl game I write up, but I’m taking the Rockets and buying a point. Toledo should be able to make this a respectable game, and I wouldn’t even be surprised if the team won. I also can’t imagine Pittsburgh putting Holstein in harm’s way. He’s going to be the team’s quarterback next season, so why play him at less than 100% in what is essentially a meaningless contest?
For anybody interested in the total, I don’t have much there. However, the number has dropped from 51.5 to 51, and Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation makes it pretty easy to imagine this turning into an ugly game — even though the conditions are perfect at Ford Field.
Pick: Toledo +7.5 (-136)
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