College Football Conference Championship Betting Trends:
Another college football regular season has flown by and we have arrived at championship week, with all nine FBS conferences playing their title games on Friday or Saturday, one less than we have become accustomed to. There are a few highly influential games that fans will be glued to, with some portion of the expanded CFP still left to be sorted out, in particular, the seeding. Unlike recent seasons where a berth in college football’s “final four” version of the playoffs was on the line in several games, many teams involved in games this weekend are already essentially locked in. Of course, nothing is ever set in stone, and the committee has been known to issue late surprises to upset the proceedings. Also, unlike recent years, all of the games are expected to be close, with the biggest point spread in any of the games set at just 5.5 points. It figures to be a great couple of days of football, and if history is any indication, anything can and will happen.
Perhaps the most interesting storyline concerning this weekend’s nine games is that in five of the games, a team playing its first year in a new conference will be going for a title, including three that played in different title games a year ago, two of them winning those games.
From a betting perspective, these conference championships are always huge draws, and besides the usual handicapping routines, studying the history of each game can give bettors an edge. As I mentioned, all of this year’s games are expected to be competitive. Double-digit point spreads have become not that uncommon for these games. On this weekend last year, three of the 10 games boasted double-digit lines, and two others showed in excess of a touchdown. Even with those gargantuan numbers hung on the games, favorites still managed to go 6-4 SU and ATS, running their two-year record to 14-6 SU and ATS. Perhaps the smaller lines will lead to more underdog success in 2024. That remains to be seen.
One thing that has been proven to be true over the last three years is that these games have been decisive. Only four of the 30 games in that span were decided by 7 points or less, and the outright winners in those contests are 30-0 ATS! That certainly offers some evidence for laying points with favorites and betting money lines with underdogs.
Are there any other trends by conference or overall systems that have developed that bettors should be paying attention to? I’m about to reveal answers to those questions as I look at the betting history of each of the league’s championship games and how it might affect this year’s contests. The games are in board number order.
Tulane (-5.5; 46.5) at Army
American Athletic Championship
Friday, 8:00 p.m.
For years, Army played as an independent program in college football. In its first season of American Athletic Conference competition, it finds itself in the league title game despite being picked in the bottom third of the conference projections at the outset of the season. The opponent in the game for the Knights is a much more experienced team on this stage, as Tulane plays for the third straight season for an AAC crown. The Green Wave were generally expected to be here after winning this game in 2022 and coming up shy in 2023. It is not a surprise to see them in the role of road favorites at West Point for Friday night. Army got here by defense, 166 points on the season, or 15.1 PPG.
Tulane has been sharp on both sides of the ball, putting up a league-high 469 points on offense (39.7 PPG) and yielding an equally impressive 18.4 PPG defensively. This of course, is one of four championship games held at home fields, and always has been. Hosting the game has been of great benefit, with home teams having won the prior six games before SMU’s 26-14 upset victory a year ago. The Mustangs have, of course, moved on to the ACC and will be playing for that championship this weekend. Overall though, road teams own a 3-2 ATS edge in the last five. Regarding totals, Over had converted in five of six games prior to last year’s Under. For those considering a correlated parlay for this one, the last four favorite covers have resulted in Overs on the total, while the last four underdog covers produced a 3-1 Under record. These teams did not meet in the regular season, but Tulane has beaten Army four times since 2015, going 4-0 ATS. Also, head coach Jon Sumrall’s team was 5-0 SU and ATS as a road favorite this season.
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (-4; 58)
Conference USA Championship
Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Just two seasons ago, Jacksonville State was competing in the FCS level of college football. After going 9-4 in 2023, including a New Orleans Bowl win, the Gamecocks now seek their first-ever Conference USA crown. Talk about a whirlwind two years for head coach Rich Rodriguez’s program. It won’t be an easy task, however, as Western Kentucky has been in the C-USA title game three times since 2015 and has won twice. The Hilltoppers also won at home against this same JSU squad this past weekend, 19-17, to clinch a spot in this contest.
Both teams sport 8-4 marks overall, with JSU having won the regular season CUSA crown with a 7-1 mark. They will be looking to extend a three-game SU and ATS winning streak for hosts in this conference title game series. Looking back even further, home teams are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS in the game, dating back to 2006. With a smaller-than-usual point spread for this game, it is also of note that favorites of less than 7 points are on an 0-4 SU and ATS skid. Five of the last six CUSA title games have gone Over the total, and winners in seven of the last nine games have topped the 40-point plateau.
UNLV at Boise State (-4; 58.5)
Mountain West Championship
Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
This will be the 12th annual Mountain West Conference Championship game and the eighth one that has featured Boise State. In the previous seven, the Broncos are 4-3 SU but just 2-5 ATS. They will play as a 4-point home favorite in a rematch of the title game of 2023 against UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels earned their way to this game last weekend by beating Nevada and earning a tiebreaker edge over Colorado State. This upcoming Friday night matchup is not only a rematch of last year’s MWC title game, but also one of an earlier season matchup in Las Vegas, a thrilling game that came down to the final possession and won by the Broncos, 29-24. It was the seventh straight win for Boise State in the head-to-head series, although road teams are on an impressive six-game ATS winning streak. The BSU win last season in Sin City in this game was rare in that they were favored, and it snapped a stretch of three straight outright wins by underdogs and an 8-1 ATS surge.
Besides another coveted conference title on the line this weekend, it is generally assumed that head coach Spencer Danielson’s team is playing to represent the Group of 5 teams in the expanded college football playoffs. Considering the stakes and game locale, it is a relatively tight point spread. You might be somewhat surprised to know that as of Monday afternoon, 65% of the handle at DraftKings had come in on the underdog UNLV team.
Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-2; 51)
Big 12 Championship
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
There aren’t a whole lot of teams hotter than Arizona State as we head into championship weekend. The Sun Devils won their final five games of the regular season and managed to clinch the key tiebreakers that helped them emerge as the #1 seed and favorite for this Big 12 title tilt. Clearly, the conference change from the Pac-12 was a blessing in disguise as they hadn’t even played for a title in that league since getting walloped 38-14 by Stanford back in 2013.
Iowa State meanwhile, has been a Big 12 participant since inception and has also never won a title in the league. In fact, it’s been over 110 years since the Cyclones won a conference championship of any sort. They have played in this game once before, in 2020, coming up short of Oklahoma, 27-21 as 5-point underdogs. Here, ISU is a 2-point dog to head coach Kenny Dillingham’s red-hot team, which is important since favorites have gone 5-2 SU and ATS in the previous seven installments of this title series.
As new as these teams are to championships, and in particular the Big 12 championship, it’s fitting that the head-to-head history between these teams is also blank. This is about as fresh of a matchup as you can get. Both teams share 10-2 records, with ASU having a three-game edge in the Vegas results. In fact, the Sun Devils shared the top spot nationally with 10-point spread victories. A lot of the statistics are very similar as well, thus the reason for the minimal 2-point line favoring ASU. This is the first of the title games played on a neutral field, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.
Ohio vs. Miami (OH) (-2.5; 44.5)
MAC Championship
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
The MAC title game is the second longest series of any of the leagues, dating back to 1997, and it has been played at Ford Field in Detroit in every one since 2004. Although both Ohio (5x) and Miami (OH) (6x) have each made plenty of appearances in this game, this will be the first time they face one another with the conference crown on the line. Miami (OH) is the defending MAC champ and looking to become the first team since Northern Illinois in 2011-12 to repeat.
Furthermore, no team has covered back-to-back MAC title contests since 2007-08. The Redhawks beat Toledo last year 23-14 as 7-point underdogs. This year, they are favored, but by just 2.5 points. That advanced their mark in this game to 4-2 SU and ATS. This will be a rematch contest from the regular season, with head coach Chuck Martin’s team looking to follow up a 30-20 win in Oxford in October. That was the fourth straight Over the total in the head-to-head series. This title game series has become a heavy underdog trending title contest, as dogs have won ATS at an 11-3-1 clip since 2008, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Under the total is also on a five-game winning streak, although the current number of 44.5 is only one point higher than the lowest posted number in this history of the MAC title game, which came last year (43.5).
Georgia vs. Texas (-2.5; 49)
SEC Championship
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
There were skeptics everywhere that figured teams like Texas and Oklahoma would meet their match this season in their first runs against the SEC, but the Longhorns proved everyone wrong by winning the regular season conference title, the only team with just one league loss. After winning the championship game in the Big 12 last year, they look to make it two in a row by beating Georgia for the coveted SEC crown. Obviously, experience and locale could prove to be important factors in this game, as the game is played in Atlanta, GA, and the Bulldogs are making their 12th appearance in this game. For the record, head coach Kirby Smart’s team is 4-7 SU and 6-5 ATS in the prior 11, including a 27-24 loss to Alabama last year.
This game will be a rematch from the regular season when Georgia handed Texas its only loss in somewhat dominant fashion, a 30-15 decision in Austin. Even still, many fans and bettors alike have questioned the Bulldogs’ worthiness, at least of comparing themselves to recent teams, as they’ve gone just 3-9 ATS and only seemed to click in a few contests in 2024. They typically play well on the big stage, however. Interestingly, the line setup is very unusual for this game, as only one of the last 11 SEC title games has seen a point spread less than 6 points. That game was in 2017, a 28-7 win for Georgia (-1.5) over Auburn.
Regarding overall trends, favorites have typically gotten the job done here, winning 17 of the last 22 SEC title games while going 11-10-1 ATS. However, underdogs are on a 3-1 ATS run currently. Over the total has converted in 16 of the last 21.
Marshall at Louisiana-Lafayette (-5.5; 56.5)
Sun Belt Championship
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Marshall has played for, and won conference championships over the last 30 years in both the MAC and Conference USA while there. The Herd will try to add a Sun Belt crown to the mix on Saturday when they travel to Lafayette to take on the Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana. It won’t be easy, as despite a 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS mark in 2024, Marshall finds itself as a 5-point underdog. This coming despite ULL playing with its backup quarterback. Of course, that backup isn’t just some random guy off the bench, as Chandler Fields is in his sixth season for Louisiana and has attempted 426 passes in his career while throwing 24 TDs. His team sports a 10-2 mark and clinched home-field advantage in this game with a 37-23 win at rival UL-Monroe last weekend.
This will be the Cajuns’ fourth time appearing in this game, although it will be the first time they will be favored. They are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in the prior three tries, winning outright and ATS in their only and most recent one at home, back in 2021. Head coach Michael Desormeaux’s team has beaten Marshall twice since 2021, once in league play and once in a bowl game. Looking closer at the Sun Belt title game series, overall, home teams are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. Over the total has converted in the two most recent games.
Clemson vs. SMU (-2.5; 56)
ACC Championship
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Although it wasn’t exactly “backing in” to this ACC title game, Clemson has a chance for a reprieve after losing last week at home to South Carolina to drop to 9-3. The Tigers got the ACC help they needed from Syracuse and now have a chance to get back into the expanded CFP with a win here. It’s been a few years since head coach Dabo Swinney’s team was able to compete on college football’s biggest stage, but they can reach their playoff goal with an ACC championship victory over none other than SMU, a team that finds itself playing for a title in its first year of league competition.
Make no mistake about it, though, the Mustangs belong here, winners of nine straight games heading into Saturday, and rightfully favored by 2.5 points. They were able to make the leap from Group of 5 and winning the American title last year to Power Conference without skipping a beat. There will be a massive experience edge for Clemson in this game, however, as they are no stranger to the ACC championship contest, having played in it nine times overall and in seven of the last nine seasons. The Tigers are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in those games! That said, recent history shows the line to be very beneficial to SMU, as favorites have won 12 straight times outright and the last seven ATS. Six of the last seven have gone Under the total.
Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5; 49.5)
Big Ten Championship
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
For the first time in eight years, the winner of the Big Game between Michigan and Ohio State will not be representing the conference in the title game. The last time it happened was in 2016, and ironically, it was the last time that Penn State played in and won the contest. The Nittany Lions’ opponent for 2024…yet another team playing a first season in a new league, Oregon. The #1 ranked team in the country is the only remaining unbeaten team and has adapted quite well to life in the Big Ten.
The Ducks still have a bad taste in their mouth from last year’s Pac-12 title game; however, as a loss to Washington kept them out of the CFP. Prior to that, they were a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in league championship games. Penn State’s win in 2016 was its only prior trip to Indy, and it beat Wisconsin 38-31. Both of these teams figure to be a lock for the 12-team expanded CFP so there is only conference and seeding bragging rights on the line. Oregon is a 3.5-point favorite, which is noteworthy since favorites are on winning streaks of seven games outright and three games ATS in this contest. However, this is the first time since 2017 that it won’t be a double-digit point spread associated with the matchup. It should be noted that the first seven Big Ten title games were played with single-digit lines, and underdogs were 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in those games.
Conference Championship Game Betting Systems
In looking back at all of the conference championship game logs since their inception in ’92, I was able to come up with the following five betting systems that have developed:
Group of 5 conference title game neutral field dogs are 12-14 SU but 18-7-1 ATS (72%) in their last 26 tries, including 15-4-1 ATS on lines of 3 points or more.
2024 Qualifying Teams: OHIO (+2.5) vs. Miami (OH)
Power 5 conference title game neutral field favorites are on a 27-6 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run.
2024 Qualifying Teams: ARIZONA STATE (-2) vs. Iowa State, TEXAS (-2.5) vs. Georgia, SMU (-2.5) vs. Clemson, OREGON (-3.5) vs. Penn State
Power 5 conference title game neutral field double-digit favorites are on a 23-game SU winning streak and are 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in a span that dates back to 2008. Over the total is also 12-6 (66.7%) in the last 18 of those games.
2024 Qualifying Teams/Totals: NONE, unfortunately, biggest point spread is a mere 3.5 points.
Conference title game totals of less than 50 have gone Over at a 23-12 (65.7%) rate since 2003. However, please note that all four games qualifying in 2023 went Under.
2024 Qualifying Games: OVER 46.5 in TULANE-ARMY, OVER 44.5 in OHIO-MIAMI (OH), OVER 49 in GEORGIA-TEXAS, OVER 49.5 in PENN STATE-OREGON
Conference title game totals of 64 or higher have gone Under at a 21-11-1 (65.6%) rate since 2004.
2024 Qualifying Games: NONE, unfortunately, biggest total is 58.5 points in UNLV-BOISE STATE
VIEW CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORICAL RESULTS CHART HERE
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