NFL Player Props Week 13:
Week 13 is already well underway with the four holiday games, but we still have all sorts of betting options for the rest of the weekend. That includes a lot of chances to make money in the player props market. After looking at the weather, matchups, injuries, and other factors, some things stood out more than others.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 13
Najee Harris (PIT) Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
There have been two games started by Russell Wilson where he has not gone over his posted passing yards prop for this game of 225.5. Those games were against the Ravens and Commanders. The Steelers ran the ball 43 times against Washington and 34 times against Baltimore.
I’m guessing that the thought process from Arthur Smith is to play keep-away as much as possible and spare the defense from having to shoulder a tremendous burden against good offensive teams. The Bengals are absolutely a good offensive team.
Cincinnati is bad all around on defense, but as much as we’ve had the pass defense under the microscope, they are 30th in Rush EPA against and 31st in Rushing Success Rate. Harris has gone over this number in eight of 11 games and I anticipate that the Steelers will be trying to protect their possessions as much as possible.
Adam Thielen (CAR) Over 3.5 Receptions (-120)
Thielen played 61% of the snaps last week in his first action since Week 3. The spread would suggest a positive game state for player props regarding the passing game and Thielen had four targets last week with three catches for 57 yards.
Tampa Bay is 31st in Dropback Success Rate against and 29th in Dropback EPA. The familiarity that former OC Dave Canales has with the Buccaneers’ personnel should come in handy here, as the Panthers are also running low on pass-catcher bodies, with Ja’Tavion Sanders and Jalen Coker out. That should increase the flow of targets and the number of snaps for Thielen.
Isaiah Likely (BAL) Under 2.5 Receptions (-120)
Likely has fallen out of favor in the Baltimore offense. He was inactive a few weeks ago and had zero catches over 35 snaps last week against the Chargers. He’s only gone over this number three times since his Week 1 breakout performance.
The Eagles have allowed the fourth-fewest receptions to tight ends. That’s quite an accomplishment given that they are leading more often than not, so the game state for the opposition dictates throwing the football. In a big game for both teams, if Likely isn’t a top option, I can’t see him getting the targets.
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