NFL Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends – Week 11

Week 11 NFL Betting Trends:

The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 11. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

*GREEN BAY has won the last 10 SU and ATS vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-5.5 at CHI)

NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-73 SU but 57-29 ATS (66.3%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+13 at DET)

The last 23 Monday Night Football games featuring home underdogs have seen Under the total go 18-4-1 (81.8%) as well, games producing just 37.3 PPG.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in HOU-DAL (o/u at 42)

NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS (78.6%) record in their last 14 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs. WAS)

* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
System Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-NYJ (o/u at 43.5)

Play road favorites against divisional opponents coming out of their bye week (Record: 33-16 ATS since 2002, 67.3%, +15.4 Units, 31.4% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-6 at CHI)

NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 15-15 SU but 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-13 vs. JAX)

* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on a 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3.5 at PHI)

Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 35-10 SU and 32-12-1 ATS (72.7%).
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-2.5 vs. ATL)

* KANSAS CITY is 15-3 SU and 17-1 ATS in its last 18 games as road underdog
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+2 at BUF)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. The record for this year has been 34-28 AYS, including 21-9 ATS backing road teams. It’s hard to see this one continuing. We will continue to recommend that if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, GREEN BAY, CLEVELAND, MIAMI, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, SAN FRANCISCO, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. So far in 2024, this is 20-17, but the bulk of the season’s 96 divisional games are still yet to come.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, GREEN BAY, SAN FRANCISCO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%), but 20-15 ATS in 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, GREEN BAY, SAN FRANCISCO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups have actually been quite sharp, as this majority group is 60-50 ATS (54.5%), performing at nearly the exact same level in each season. This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, LA RAMS, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, HOUSTON

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog. However, this system is 28-18 ATS for 2024, a major factor as to why bettors are doing well overall. I suspect if (or when) this turns, DK will regain the advantage.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY, LA RAMS, BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, ATLANTA, KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, DENVER, BUFFALO, CINCINNATI

The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a money line wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, a ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, BALTIMORE ML, KANSAS CITY ML

NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in 2024. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY ML, LA RAMS ML, MIAMI ML, DETROIT ML, MINNESOTA ML, SAN FRANCISCO ML, HOUSTON ML

NFL DK Betting Splits system #11: Majority number of bets groups have been at their best in 2024 on money lines in the Sunday afternoon games when backing small favorites (4 points or less, and approximately -220 or less). These groups boast an impressive 33-10 record for +18.93 units of profit and an ROI of +44%! These include the games in the 1:00 p.m. ET-4:30 p.m. ET starting slots, and with more choices at these times, bettors are faring well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE ML, NY JETS ML

These next systems cover totals…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAR-NE, ATL-DEN
UNDER – GB-CHI, LVR-MIA, MIN-TEN, IND-NYJ, HOU-DAL

NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GB-CHI, BAL-PIT, LVR-MIA, JAX-DET, MIN-TEN, IND-NYJ, SEA-SF, KC-BUF

NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): WAS-PHI, LAR-NE, ATL-DEN, CIN-LAC

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): ATL-DEN

NEW Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams and their coaches/quarterbacks in recent years of action:

(313) WASHINGTON at (314) PHILADELPHIA

* WASHINGTON is 26-9 Over the total when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
* WASHINGTON is 18-32 ATS (36%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 15-28 ATS (34.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS when coming off a non-conference defeat since 2016
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS skid when coming off upset loss
Systems Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3.5 at PHI), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48.5)

* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 15-2 SU and 11-5 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs WAS)

(467) ATLANTA at (468) DENVER

* ATLANTA is on 10-15 SU and 6-19 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
* ATLANTA’s Kirk Cousins is 18-11 SU and 20-7 ATS with his team coming off a road loss since 2015
* ATLANTA is 15-31 ATS (32.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADEs of ATLANTA (+2.5 at DEN)

* DENVER is 12-14 SU but 21-5 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019
* DENVER is 19-33 ATS (36.5%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER’s Sean Payton is 15-8 SU and 18-4 ATS in the last 23 games when coming off an outright road loss
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs, 1 FADE of DENVER (-2.5 vs. ATL)

(457) BALTIMORE at (458) PITTSBURGH

* BALTIMORE is 13-11 SU and 18-5 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7% since 2020
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 27-8 SU and 22-12 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
Systems Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-3 at PIT)

* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 28-19 SU and 33-12 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is 10-2 Under the total in his last 12 November starts
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson boasts a 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS record as a home underdog since 2012
Systems Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+3 vs. BAL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48)

(471) CINCINNATI at (472) LA CHARGERS

* CINCINNATI is 13-21 SU but 26-9 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016
* CINCINNATI is 53-63 SU but 71-42 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 13-3 Under the total versus non-divisional AFC foes since 2022
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 17-9 SU and 18-8 ATS (69.2%) vs. non-divisional conference foes
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is on a 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS surge with his team coming off an outright road loss
Systems Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+1.5 at LAC), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48)

* LA CHARGERS are 61-28 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 22-7 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 13-1 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER in CIN-LAC (o/u at 48)

(453) CLEVELAND at (454) NEW ORLEANS

* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 15-6 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is on 9-3 SU and 9-3 ATS run when coming off an outright home loss
* CLEVELAND’s Jameis Winston is on 7-1 Over the total streak as a short underdog of less than +3-points
Systems Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+1 at NO), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 44.5)

* Derek Carr (NO) is 33-28 SU and 19-39-1 ATS (32.8%) as a favorite.
* NEW ORLEANS is 22-40 ATS (35.5%) at home since 2017
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-1 vs. CLE)

(451) GREEN BAY at (452) CHICAGO

* GREEN BAY is 23-9 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 14-12 SU and 8-18 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
* GREEN BAY is 20-12 ATS (62.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-6 at CHI), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 40.5)

* CHICAGO is 8-19 SU and 7-20 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO is 19-32 ATS (37.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO’s Matt Eberflus is on a 16-10 Over the total surge when coming off an outright loss
* CHICAGO’s Matt Eberflus is on a 6-1 SU and ATS streak at home
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADEs of CHICAGO (+6 vs. GB), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 40.5)

(473) INDIANAPOLIS at (474) NY JETS

* INDIANAPOLIS is 27-15 SU and 30-10 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss since 2011
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Shane Steichen is on 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
Systems Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5 at NYJ)

* NY JETS are on 8-20 SU and 6-21 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss since 2011
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (-3.5 vs. IND), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)

(461) JACKSONVILLE at (462) DETROIT

* JACKSONVILLE is 8-48 SU and 14-41 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is on a horrific 4-38 SU and 10-32 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is on 15-2 Under the total surge when coming off a loss to NFC foe
* JACKSONVILLE’s Doug Pederson is 19-5 Under the total in November games since 2016
* JACKSONVILLE’s Doug Pederson is 38-23 Over the total in road games since 2016
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+13 at DET), also 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYs UNDER the total (o/u at 47)

* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 5-12 SU and 6-11 ATS skid vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33%
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 7-5 SU but 3-9 ATS as a home favorite of more than 7 points since 2018
Systems Match: FADE DETROIT (-13 vs. JAX)

(469) KANSAS CITY at (470) BUFFALO

* KANSAS CITY is 15-3 SU and 17-1 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on 9-1 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes is on 10-2 SU and 12-0 ATS roll as a road underdog
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 27-9 SU and 23-11 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+2.5 at BUF), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46)

* BUFFALO is 18-6 SU and 19-5 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott boasts a 14-3 SU and ATS record as a short favorite of less than 3 points since 2017
Systems Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-2.5 vs KC)

(455) LA RAMS at (456) NEW ENGLAND

* LA RAMS are 13-5 SU and 14-3 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018
* LA RAMS’s Sean McVay is just 8-14 SU and 5-15 ATS in its last 22 November games
* LA RAMS’s Matthew Stafford is 19-10 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (-4.5 at NE), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 43.5)

(459) LAS VEGAS at (460) MIAMI

* LAS VEGAS is 9-16 SU and 6-19 ATS vs. poor teams with point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2018
* LAS VEGAS’ Gardner Minshew is on 0-7 SU and ATS skid as a road underdog of +3 to +7 points
* LAS VEGAS’ Gardner Minshew is on 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS surge vs. teams with poor offenses scoring <19 PPG
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADEs of LAS VEGAS (+7 at MIA)

* MIAMI is on 28-16 SU and 28-15 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is 21-8 SU and 19-10 ATS (65.5%) in home games
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Systems Match: PLAY MIAMI (-7 vs. LVR)

(463) MINNESOTA at (464) TENNESSEE

* MINNESOTA is 29-17 SU and 30-14 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 76-55 SU and 84-47 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 23-8 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 4-11 SU and 2-13 ATS in the last 15 starts vs. teams with losing records
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-6 at TEN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 39.5)

* TENNESSEE is on 6-21 SU and 6-20-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+6 vs. MIN)

(465) SEATTLE at (466) SAN FRANCISCO

* SEATTLE is 19-6 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2011
System Match: PLAY OVER in SEA-SF (o/u at 48)

* SAN FRANCISCO is on 13-1 Over the total surge as a home favorite of -3 to -7 points
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 41-26 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 7-6 SU and 3-10 ATS in the last 13 vs. teams with lesser records
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is on 8-2 Over the total surge vs. divisional opponents
Systems Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5 vs. SEA), also PLAY OVER in SEA-SF (o/u at 48)

(475) HOUSTON at (476) DALLAS

* DALLAS’s Mike McCarthy is just 13-30-1 SU and 14-30 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+7.5 vs. HOU)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This NFL betting trend material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024, detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: LAR-NE(+4.5), MIN-TEN(+6), SEA(+6.5)-SF)

Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 155-179-10 ATS (46.4%). Road/Neutral games – 178-161-9 ATS (52.5%).
System Matches: FADE – NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE

Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 27-45 SU and 33-38-1 ATS (46.5%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE – SEATTLE

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: WAS(+3.5)-PHI, ATL(+2.5)-DEN, CIN-LAC(-1.5))

Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 85-116-1 ATS (42.3%). Road/Neutral games – 101-105-1 ATS (49%).
System Match: FADE – LA CHARGERS

Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 91-68 SU but just 56-92-11 ATS, for 37.8%!
System Match: FADE – LA CHARGERS

There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since ’14, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 78-79-1 ATS (49.7%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 107-140-1 ATS (43.3%) in that same time span.
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, ATLANTA

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These NFL betting trends and systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie that started seven or more games in that first season. The starters for this week include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), Drake Maye (New England), and Bo Nix (Denver).

(Games this week: WAS(+3.5)-PHI, GB-CHI(+6), LAR-NE(+4.5), ATL-DEN(-2.5))

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 114-112 ATS (50.4%) in home games but just 99-120-2 ATS (45.2%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 33-95 SU and 54-72-2 ATS (42.9%).
System Match: FADE – WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 35-10 SU and 32-12-1 ATS (72.7%).
System Match: PLAY – DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 43-95 SU and 57-77-4 ATS (42.5%) versus divisional opponents.
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 18-17 SU and 23-10-2 ATS (69.7%) in their last 35 such tries. Moreover, they are 19-5-1 ATS (79.2%) in their last 25 Monday Night contests.
System Match: PLAY – WASHINGTON

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These NFL betting trends and systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh), and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta).

(Games this week: BAL-PIT(+3), IND-NYJ(-3.5), ATL(+2.5)-DEN)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 120-71 SU and 101-79-11 ATS (56.1%).
System Matches: PLAY – PITTSBURGH, NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 82-66 SU and 82-64-2 ATS (56.2%).
System Match: PLAY – NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 –Veteran QB’s have shown a tendency to lead their teams back well after losses
In their last 135 starts with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 76-71 SU and 80-64-3 ATS (55.6%). This trend dates back to 2016.
System Matches: PLAY – NY JETS, ATLANTA

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 42-70 SU but 63-44-5 ATS (58.9%) when playing as underdogs of 3-points or more.
System Match: PLAY – PITTSBURGH

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NFL betting trends and systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or less first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 20-34 SU but 35-19 ATS (64.8%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+13 at DET)

TURNOVERS ARE KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 15-15 SU but 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-13 vs. JAX)

TNF, SNF, and MNF Team NFL Betting Trends and Systems

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 35-38 SU and 42-29-2 ATS (59.2%) in the last 73.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+3.5 at PHI)

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 39-25 SU and 37-25-2 ATS (59.7%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs. WAS)

A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 18-17 SU but 13-22 ATS (37.1%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs. WAS)

There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 19-19 SU and 25-12-1 ATS (67.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+3.5 at PHI)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 19-13 SU and 13-19 ATS (40.6%) in their last 32 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-1.5 vs. CIN)

SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 10-24 SU and 11-23 ATS (32.4%) in their last 34 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+1.5 at LAC)

Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 22-5 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-1.5 vs CIN)

More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 15-25 SU and 16-24 ATS (40%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-1.5 vs. CIN)

Bad SNF Team Trends

Cincinnati 2-8 SU and 5-5 ATS L10
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+1.5 at LAC)

LA Chargers 2-6 ATS skid
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-1.5 vs. CIN)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 13-12 SU and 15-9-1 ATS (62.5%) dating back to September 2021. The last 23 of these games have seen Under the total go 18-4-1 (81.8%) as well, games producing just 37.3 PPG.
Systems Match: PLAY DALLAS (+7.5 vs. HOU), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42)

Laying 7 points or more has for long not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 44-15 SU but just 19-38-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-7.5 at DAL)

In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-25 SU but 15-35-2 ATS (30%) in the last 52.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+7.5 vs HOU)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 36-33 SU but just 24-43-2 ATS (35.8%) in the last 69 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-7.5 at DAL)

Good MNF Team Trends

Dallas 7-2 SU and ATS L9
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 vs. HOU)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Dallas 13-6 ATS in the last 19
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 vs. HOU)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Washington 11-21 and 10-21-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+3.5 at PHI)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following NFL betting trends and systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion and then being favored in the latter games, are 89-18 SU and 69-38 ATS (64.5%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs. WAS)

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-42 SU and 16-39-4 ATS (29.1%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+13 at DET)

NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-73 SU but 57-29 ATS (66.3%) as underdogs of 5.5 points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+13 at DET)

NFL Streaks Betting System #9: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 22-62 SU but 52-30-2 ATS (63.4%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+2 at BUF)

NFL Streaks Betting System #10: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 20-25 SU but 28-15-2 ATS (65.1%) in their last 45 games versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 vs. HOU)

Pre-Bye Week NFL Betting Trends and Systems

The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason

Pre-bye week system #3
Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 70-37-2 ATS since 2010, 65.4%, +29.3 Units, 27.4% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS (-1 vs. CLE), NY JETS (-3.5 vs. IND), BUFFALO (-2 vs. KC)

Pre-bye week system #8
Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 41-8 SU and 33-15-1 ATS since ’08, 68.8%, +16.5 Units, 34.4% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+13 at DET)

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at Denver Broncos
Atlanta has gone 3-8-1 in its last 12 pre-bye week games overall
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+2.5 at DEN)

The Falcons are on a 7-2 UNDER the total run in pre-bye week road games
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-DEN (o/u at 44)

Buffalo Bills Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo is on a run of 13-4 Over the total in pre-bye week games
System Match (PLAY OVER): KC-BUF (o/u at 46)

The Bills haven’t played a pre-bye week home game since 2013, and are on a 3-9 SU and ATS skid in that scenario
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (-2 vs. KC)

Cincinnati Bengals Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at Los Angeles Chargers
Cincinnati has gone 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five pre-bye week games on the road
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+1.5 at LAC)

The Bengals are on a 7-2 Over the total surge in pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes
System Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-LAC (o/u at 47)

Jacksonville Jaguars Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at Detroit Lions
The Jaguars are 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 15 pre-bye week true road games
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+13 at DET)

Jacksonville is on a 6-1 Under the total surge in pre-week games
System Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-DET (o/u at 47)

New Orleans Saints Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Saints have won their last seven pre-bye week home games, going 5-2 ATS
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1 vs. CLE)

New Orleans is 4-1 Over the total in its last five pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes, scoring 28.6 PPG
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-NO (o/u at 44.5)

New York Jets Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Jets are on a 4-1 ATS run in pre-bye week games, winning their last two outright
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS (-3.5 vs. IND)

The Jets are 7-2-1 Over the total in their last 10 pre-bye week games when favored
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-NYJ (o/u at 43.5)

Post-Bye Week NFL Betting Trends and Systems

Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 110-45 SU and 92-59-4 ATS since ’99, 60.9%, +27.1 Units, 17.9% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-6 at CHI)

Post-bye week road favorite subsystems:
Vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 33-16 ATS since 2002, 67.3%, +15.4 Units, 31.4% ROI, Grade 68) System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-6 at CHI)

Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 28-18-2 since 2010, 60.9%, +8.2 Units, 17.8% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (PLAY OVER): GB-CHI (*if total drops below 40, o/u at 40 currently)

Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 22-11 SU and 23-10 ATS since 2019, 69.7%, +12.0 Units, 36.4% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+7.5 at MIA)

Post-bye week system #8:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 35-14 since ‘21, 71.4%, +19.6 Units, 40% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GB-CHI, CLE-NO, LVR-MIA, SEA-SF

Post-bye week system #9:
Play against teams coming off their bye week after a loss to a divisional opponent prior to the bye. (Record: 25-16 SU and 26-12-3 ATS since 2008, 68.4%, +12.8 Units, 33.7% ROI, Grade 62)
System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY (-6 at CHI), SEATTLE (+6.5 at SF)

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Cleveland Browns Post-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at New Orleans Saints
Cleveland is 5-8 SU and 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 post-bye week games but did beat San Francisco last year, 19-17 at home
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-1 at NO)

The Browns are on a 10-3 Over the total surge in post-bye week road games
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-NO (o/u at 44.5)

Green Bay Packers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at Chicago Bears
Green Bay is 9-1 Under the total in the last 10 post-bye week road games
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GB-CHI (o/u at 40)

The Packers are on a 6-1 SU and ATS post-bye week run versus divisional opponents
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-6 at CHI)

Las Vegas Raiders Post-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at Miami Dolphins
The Raiders are on a 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS skid in post-bye week games overall
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+7.5 at MIA)

Seattle Seahawks Post-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at San Francisco 49ers
In post-bye week games, Seattle has lost its L4 SU and ATS after a 6-1 run
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+6.5 at SF)

The Seahawks have played poorly in post-bye week divisional games, 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS since 1993
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+6.5 at SF)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following NFL betting trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons

Best NFL rematch teams lately
San Francisco: 14-5 SU and ATS in the last 19
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5 vs. SEA)

Best NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately
San Francisco: 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in the last 14 when having won initial outing
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5 vs. SEA)

This week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ENGLAND +4.5 (+1.4)
2. ATLANTA +2.5 (+0.8)
3. INDIANAPOLIS +4 (+0.7)
4. JACKSONVILLE +13 (+0.4)
5. PITTSBURGH +3 (+0.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI -7 (+2.5)
2. NEW ORLEANS -1 (+1.9)
3. SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 (+1.3)
4. MINNESOTA -6 (+0.9)
5. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+0.8)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. JACKSONVILLE +13 (+2.4)
2. NEW ENGLAND +4.5 (+2.0)
3. INDIANAPOLIS +4 (+1.2)
4. CINCINNATI +1.5 (+1.0)
5. CHICAGO +5.5 (+0.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS -1 (+4.2)
2. DENVER -2.5 (+2.0)
3. BALTIMORE -3 (+1.7)
4. BUFFALO -2 (+1.4)
5. MINNESOTA -6 (+0.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. JAX-DET OVER 47 (+1.4)
2(tie). BAL-PIT OVER 48 (+1.0)
HOU-DAL OVER 42 (+1.0)
4(tie). LVR-MIA OVER 44 (+0.5)
ATL-DEN OVER 44 (+0.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CIN-LAC UNDER 48 (-3.1)
2(tie). WAS-PHI UNDER 48.5 (-1.3)
KC-BUF UNDER 46 (-1.3)
4(tie). MIN-TEN UNDER 39.5 (-1.0)
IND-NYJ UNDER 43.5 (-1.0)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +7.5 (+7.3)
2. CHICAGO +5.5 (+3.6)
3. JACKSONVILLE +13 (+1.7)
4. CINCINNATI +1.5 (+1.5)
5. ATLANTA +2.5 (+1.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS -1 (+4.8)
2. BALTIMORE -3 (+4.7)
3. LA RAMS -4.5 (+2.6)
4. NY JETS -4 (+2.5)
5. MIAMI -7 (+1.7)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LVR-MIA OVER 44 (+3.7)
2. JAX-DET OVER 47 (+3.0)
3. ATL-DEN OVER 44 (+1.9)
4. MIN-TEN OVER 39.5 (+1.7)
5. KC-BUF OVER 46 (+1.1)

This week’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-NO UNDER 44.5 (-2.9)
2. LAR-NE UNDER 43.5 (-1.7)

Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(313) WASHINGTON at (314) PHILADELPHIA
* WASHINGTON is 10-4-2 ATS in the last 16 trips to Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

(467) ATLANTA at (468) DENVER
* ATLANTA has won the last three ATS vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(457) BALTIMORE at (458) PITTSBURGH
* The last seven games of the BAL-PIT rivalry went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(471) CINCINNATI at (472) LA CHARGERS
* CINCINNATI is on a 5-0 ATS winning streak on the road vs. Chargers
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS

(453) CLEVELAND at (454) NEW ORLEANS
* Underdogs are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight of the CLE-NO set
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(451) GREEN BAY at (452) CHICAGO
* GREEN BAY has won the last 10 SU and ATS vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS

(473) INDIANAPOLIS at (474) NY JETS
* Home favorites are on a 3-0 SU and ATS streak in the IND-NYJ set
System Match: PLAY NY JETS ATS

(461) JACKSONVILLE at (462) DETROIT
* Favorites are a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS in the JAC-DET series
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(469) KANSAS CITY at (470) BUFFALO
* Road teams are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 of the BUF-KC rivalry
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY ATS

(455) LA RAMS at (456) NEW ENGLAND
* Favorites are on a 4-0 SU and ATS streak in the LAR-NE series
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS ATS

(459) LAS VEGAS at (460) MIAMI
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the LVR-MIA series but lost last year
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(463) MINNESOTA at (464) TENNESSEE
* MINNESOTA is on a 6-1 ATS surge versus Tennessee
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(465) SEATTLE at (466) SAN FRANCISCO
* Under the total is 8-4 in SEA-SF series at SF since 2012
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(475) HOUSTON at (476) DALLAS
* Underdogs are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four of the HOU-DAL series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

The post NFL Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends – Week 11 appeared first on VSiN.