The college football season is entering the homestretch, but the action is heating up here at VSiN! Make sure you keep up to date on everything for the impending week of action by checking out our Week 11 CFB Betting Hub. It has links to all the articles for the week. From trends and odds reports to best bets from all our VSiN writers.
Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns
Despite being carted off in the first half of the loss to Georgia on Saturday with a hamstring injury, Florida quarterback DJ Lagway is questionable to play this weekend against Texas. Lagway practiced in limited fashion on Wednesday, but it is hard to believe he risks aggravating his hamstring further. I am handicapping this game under the assumption – always a risk – that walk-on redshirt freshman Aidan Warner should start this game against the Longhorns.
Lagway is not the only Florida player dealing with injury either. Cornerback Devin Moore was lost in the Georgia game as well and has already been ruled out. Five other starters are considered questionable for this game. This is already a team that has been decimated by injuries, and it could be even thinner if some of those questionable players are not ready to go by the time kick-off arrives.
All of this brings me to Texas.
First and foremost, this should be a matchup in which the Longhorns’ defense feasts. Warner was awful in relief of Lagway last weekend. The Yale transfer went 7-of-24 for 66 yards and 2.8 yards per attempt. He threw an interception and committed a second turnover-worthy play that he did not pay for. The most troubling sign is that Warner wasn’t even pressured. According to PFF, he was kept clean on 21 of his 27 dropbacks and still posted a 35.4 passing grade.
Texas’ defense is extremely sound. It comes into this game second in opponent EPA per dropback, eighth in EPA per rush and fifth in ECKEL rate (The rate at which your defense allows an explosive touchdown or first down inside the 40-yard line on a given drive). There is no reason to expect an efficient effort from Warner or this offense.
Circa Sports opened this line at -24 on Sunday but it was bet down to -21.5 which is the current consensus number. I’m of the belief that the original opening line was the more accurate number. If Lagway ends up missing this game as expected this line number probably gets closer to that opening number on Saturday.
Best Bet: Texas (-21.5)
Georgia Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels
Ask anyone what they think about Georgia and one of the first things likely to come up is the play of quarterback Carson Beck. Over his last two starts Beck has thrown two touchdowns to six interceptions. He has already surpassed his interception total from last season, and has committed more turnover-worthy plays as well. On the surface it has been ugly, but under the hood there are some positive signs.
Beck has committed 14 turnover-worthy plays this season. His turnover-worthy play rate (4.2%) is the worst of his career and the fifth-highest among qualified SEC quarterbacks. However, much of the damage done by Beck stems from two games. Against Alabama and Florida the Bulldogs’ signal-caller threw six interceptions and committed 10 total turnover-worthy plays. On his 214 other dropbacks he has thrown 12 touchdowns with six interceptions on just four turnover-worthy plays. That is a turnover-worthy play rate of just 2.0% which is extremely low.
My point here is that I do not want to overreact to a couple of poor starts when the vast majority of Beck’s body of work point to him being very good. Before his last two starts Beck was the 18th-best passer in the country by PFF standards. Downgrading the Bulldogs because of two poor outings would be a mistake by my measure. Which is why I’m looking to buy on bad news this week.
It seems unlikely that wide receiver Tre Harris will be back this week for Ole Miss. That is a blow for an offense which must face one of the best defenses in the country. Georgia is seventh in opponent EPA per rush and 15th in EPA per dropback. Its explosive play rate allowed is ninth-best in the country (28.6%). Against lesser defenses in Kentucky and LSU the Rebels were held to a combined 5.52 yards per play. The Rebels are also quietly average on third and fourth down. They come into this game 46th in the country in success rate on late downs and the Bulldogs are one of the best defenses in those situations, as they rank ninth.
The market does not agree with me here. Bettors can get their hands on -2.5 with ease as of Thursday morning. I’ll bite and take the chance at buying low with Beck and the Bulldogs this weekend.
Best Bet: Georgia (-2.5)
The post College Football Picks: Week 11 best bets from Jonathan Von Tobel appeared first on VSiN.
