Tour Championship Best Bets and Golf Odds

The Tour Championship:

Keegan Bradley was the last man in the field for last week’s BMW Championship sitting at No. 50 in the FedEx Cup standings. While he did not go from last to first in the point standings (fourth), he finished first in the tournament, winning the event by one stroke over Sam Burns, Ludvig Åberg and Adam Scott. 

Bradley, at a pre-event price of 100-1, earned his seventh career PGA Tour victory, earned $3.6 million and rose to No. 11 in the Official World Golf Rankings. This week, he is 40-1 to win the season finale at the Tour Championship, the final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Scottie Scheffler (+115) finished just T-33 last week in Denver but still is the FedEx Cup Points leader and will begin the Tour Championship at 10 under par (more on the starting strokes format later).

Xander Schauffele (+225) resides in second for the points and will start at 8 under par. Schauffele won this event in 2017 and is also a three-time runner-up and twice has been the low 72-hole scorer since the event went to the starting strokes format in 2019.

Hideki Matsuyama (12-1) was solo second after 36 holes last week but withdrew with a back injury. 

Åberg (18-1) was in the hunt last week, but three costly bogeys on Sunday’s back nine forced him to settle for co-runner-up. 

Rory McIlroy (18-1) played better last week, finishing T-11, and has won this event three times and is a three-time FedEx Cup champion. 

The odds board follows with Collin Morikawa (25-1), Patrick Cantlay (30-1), Bradley, Burns (40-1) and Wyndham Clark (45-1). 

Viktor Hovland (65-1) is last year’s defending champion. 

Note that all of the odds listed above are to win the Tour Championship with the starting strokes. There is also a separate market counting just the 72-hole scores without the starting strokes. 

The Field

The Tour Championship began in November 1987 as an event for the Top 30 PGA Tour leading money winners and became the final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs in 2007. With only 30 players, there is no 36-hole cut. The FedEx Cup winner receives $25 million of the $100 million bonus money pool plus a five-year PGA Tour exemption. Although the staggered scoring mentioned above will determine the FedEx Cup winner, the scores (actual under-par score) without the seeding adjustment will determine the OWGR points allocation.

The Tour Championship started with the staggered starting strokes format in 2019.

The FedEx Cup Points Leader starts at -10. Second begins at -8, third at -7, fourth at -6, fifth at -5. Then 6-10 in the standings begin at -4, 11-15 at -3, 16-20 at -2, 21-25 at -1, and 26-30 at even par. 

Here is the staggered starting scoring for this week’s Tour Championship:

The Course 

East Lake Golf Club has been the permanent home of the Tour Championship since 2004. Located about five miles east of downtown Atlanta, East Lake, the oldest course in the city, was designed by Donald Ross in 1913 and has received several renovations, most recently by Andrew Green in 2023-24. 

No golf has been played here since last year’s Tour Championship. The course has been completely redone, including the removal of hundreds of trees, all turf has been replaced and every green has been redesigned.

The course has been lengthened from 7,346 to 7,490 yards for a par-71 as the 14th is now converted to a par-5. The greens are now planted with TifEagle bermuda (replacing Mini-Verde) and sit lower and are larger (6,238 square feet average). In addition to refurbished bunkers and greens. Green recontoured the fairways to create more movement and slide. In dry conditions, they’ll run faster with the switch to Zorro Zoysia. Tees have also been adjusted to emphasize more shot shaping. 

The East Lake layout was seen as fairly mundane, so Green was brought in to change everything and he did. 

East Lake Golf Club provides a video chronicle of the course renovations here.

Here is some course information describing the changes in further detail courtesy of the GSCAA (Golf Course Superintendents Association of America).

Here is the scorecard for this week’s Tour Championship courtesy of PGATOUR.com:

Tour Championship Recent History

Tour Championship Winners

2023: Viktor Hovland -27 (-19/261); 5-1

2022: Rory McIlroy -21 (-17/263); 12-1

2021: Patrick Cantlay -21 (-11/269); 4-1

2020: Dustin Johnson -21 (-11/269); 2-1

2019: Rory McIlroy -18 (-13/267); 9-1

2018: Tiger Woods (-11/269); 14-1

2017: Xander Schauffele (-12/268); 100-1

2016: Rory McIlroy (-12/268); 13-2*

2015: Jordan Spieth (-9/271); 9-1

2014: Billy Horschel (-11/269); 25-1

2013: Henrik Stenson (-13/267); 16-1

2012: Brandt Snedeker (-10/270); 40-1

2011: Bill Haas (-8/272); 45-1**

2010: Jim Furyk (-8/272); 20-1

2009: Phil Mickelson (-9/271)

2008: Camilo Villegas (-7/273)**

2007: Tiger Woods (-23/257)

Playoff win over Kevin Chappell & Ryan Moore – *

Playoff win over Hunter Mahan – **

Playoff win over Sergio Garcia – ***

72-Hole Low Scorers

2023: Viktor Hovland 12-1 and Xander Schauffele 12-1 (-19/261)

2022: Rory McIlroy; 8-1 (-17/263)

2021: Kevin Na; 70-1 and Jon Rahm; 7-1  (-14/266)

2020: Xander Schauffele; 12-1 (-12/268)

2019: Rory McIlroy; 8-1 (-13/267)

Trends and Angles 

Since the starting strokes format began in 2019:

• The worst the leader with starting strokes of -10 has finished was T-6 last year (Scheffler).
• No player from a starting position of -1 or even has finished inside the top 5.
• In four of five years, at least one player starting at -2 has ended up inside the top 5.
• The top 3 has included at least one player who started between -2 to -4 each year.

Statistical Analysis 

East Lake will play differently with all of the course changes, so some of the historical statistical data will be obsolete, but some stats still apply as indicators for success here.

Total Driving combines the Driving Distance Rank + Driving Accuracy Rank. The course is a bit longer and the fairways are still narrow (28 yards wide on average). 

Total Driving (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Ludvig Åberg 78 (20 + 58)
2. Rory McIlroy 84 (2 + 82)
3. Scottie Scheffler 93 (73 + 20)
4. Tommy Fleetwood 96 (91 + 5)
5. Xander Schauffele 96 (31 + 65)
6. Keegan Bradley 102 (47 + 55)
7. Sam Burns 110 (38 + 72)
8. Shane Lowry 110 (87 + 23)
9. Viktor Hovland 134 (55 + 79)
10. Collin Morikawa 134 (130 + 4)

Good Drive Percentage is the number of fairways hit, plus the number of greens or fringe in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot divided by the number of par-4s and par-5s played. 

Good Drive Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Aaron Rai 88.27%
2. Scottie Scheffler 86.35
3. Tommy Fleetwood 85.61
4. Sepp Straka 85.41
5. Collin Morikawa 85.31
6. Russell Henley 85.15
7. Viktor Hovland 84.23
8. Shane Lowry 84.20
9. Akshay Bhatia 83.74
10. Chris Kirk 83.23

Approach play is always a good basis point for what is essentially a new course for these players.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.287
2. Tom Hoge 0.922
3. Tony Finau 0.824
4. Xander Schauffele 0.747
5. Aaron Rai 0.711
6. Shane Lowry 0.554
7. Justin Thomas 0.537
8. Ludvig Åberg 0.512
9. Hideki Matsuyama 0.479
10. Viktor Hovland 0.468

Historically, around one-third of the approach shots hit here have been from 200 or more yards out from the pin.

Average Proximity Gained 200+ Yards — Feet Per Shot (Last 36 rounds)

1. Xander Schauffele 16.41
2. Byeong Hun An 14.73
3. Robert MacIntyre 13.97
4. Aaron Rai 13.22
5. Patrick Cantlay 12.08
6. Hideki Matsuyama 11.30
7. Ludvig Åberg 11.08
8. Scottie Scheffler 10.99
9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 10.42
10. Sungjae Im 9.58

11 of the 16 holes at East Lake are par-4s ranging from 390-510 yards.

Strokes Gained: Par-4s (Last 36 rounds)

1. Xander Schauffele 59.7
2. Scottie Scheffler 56.9
3. Collin Morikawa 47.4
4. Rory McIlroy 42.7
5. Aaron Rai 39.2
6. Robert MacIntyre 38.9
7. Sungjae Im 38
8. Russell Henley 36.2
9. Viktor Hovland 36.1
10. Hideki Matsuyama 35.2

The greens are an all new TifEagle Bermuda surface. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Bermuda Greens (Last 36 rounds)

1. Xander Schauffele 23.7
2. Billy Horschel 20.3
3. Sahith Theegala 18
4. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 17.9
5. Wyndham Clark 16.4
6. Sam Burns 14.4
7. Viktor Hovland 13.6
8. Adam Scott 13.2
9. Russell Henley 10.5
10. Akshay Bhatia 10.1

With essentially a new course layout, it is typically prudent to look at general scoring categories like Birdie Or Better Percentage and Bogey Avoidance. 

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 27.54%
2. Sam Burns 25.57
3. Xander Schauffele 25.04
4. Wyndham Clark 24.79
5. Tony Finau 24.75
6. Tom Hoge 24.39
7. Ludvig Åberg 24.38
8. Byeong Hun An 24.33
9. Sungjae Im 23.83
10. Viktor Hovland 23.58

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Xander Schauffele 9.48%
2. Scottie Scheffler 9.94
3. Aaron Rai 12.09
4. Tommy Fleetwood 13.02
5. Collin Morikawa 13.22
6. Hideki Matsuyama 13.30
7. Russell Henley 13.45
8. Billy Horschel 13.56
9. Ludvig Åberg 13.60
10. Robert MacIntyre 13.62

Selections

Viktor Hovland (16-1, BetMGM — Low 72-Hole Scorer)

Hovland won the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup at East Lake last year but has not won since.

He has up and down, largely because of swing changes he did not need to make. 

The iron play has been sharper of late, and he seems close to figuring it out. 

Sam Burns (20-1, BetMGM — Low 72-Hole Scorer)

After starting the 2024 season with four top-10 finishes on the West Coast Swing, Burns scuffled a bit in the spring having missed cuts at both the Masters and the PGA Championship.

Nevertheless, he is playing his best golf of the season over the last two weeks with a fifth at the FedEx St. Jude and a T-2 last week at the BMW. 

Burns finished fourth at East Lake last year. 

Tommy Fleetwood (20-1, FanDuel — Low 72-Hole Scorer)

While Burns is more of a recent-form play, Fleetwood is more of a course-fit play. 

He is one of the more accurate drivers of the ball in this field and accuracy will be more of a premium with these narrower fairways. 

Fleetwood also has good recent form, winning the Olympic silver medal in Paris and finishing T-5 at the BMW last weekend. 

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