This Week’s NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL preseason games of Week 3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFLPS board.
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #1: Looking back at the 2023 NFL preseason majority handle bettors on sides were just 14-30 ATS (31.8%). Until proven otherwise, any August majority handle in the NFL should be faded.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #2: For the 3+ week 2023 NFL preseason majority bets groups on sides were just 17-32 ATS (34.7%). This is another majority group that should be faded until further notice.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #3: Looking back at the 2023 NFL preseason majority handle bettors on totals were just 19-28 ATS (40.4%). While not as bad as the side percentages, still a continued fade opportunity in 2024.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #4: For the 3+ week 2023 NFL preseason majority bets groups on totals were just 18-29 ATS (38.3%). A little less success for majority bets than handle on totals.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the handle backed either team in a 2023 preseason game that saw a line move of 3-points or more from open to close, that group was just 3-13 ATS (18.8%), a percentage low topped only by #9 below.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO, BUFFALO, PITTSBURGH, GREEN BAY, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE, NEW ENGLAND
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle backed either team in a 2023 preseason game that had a point spread of 3-points or higher, that majority group went just 9-21 ATS (30%). This is a slight drop off from the 31.8% overall win rate in system #1, so worth further consideration.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, JACKSONVILLE, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO, PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, GREEN BAY, DALLAS, TENNESSEE, DENVER, NEW ENGLAND
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of number of bets backed a 2023 NFL preseason team in a game with a point spread of 2.5 points or lower, that group was just 4-12 ATS (25%). This is almost 10% worse than the overall bets majority win rate. Look to fade the majority number of bettors in expected tight games this month.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, BUFFALO, PHILADELPHIA, NY JETS, SEATTLE
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority number of bets was 60% or greater on any team in the 2023 NFL preseason, that group went 9-21 ATS (30%). These bigger majorities lost more than the overall groups.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, MIAMI, DETROIT, BUFFALO, LA RAMS, PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE, DALLAS, NY JETS, SEATTLE, NEW ORLEANS, DENVER, WASHINGTON
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #9: In the 2023 NFL preseason, when DraftKings lines moved towards the road teams throughout the week but majority handle bettors stuck with the home teams, that group went just 1-7 ATS (12.5%). This might be the lowest DK splits percentage system I’ve posted for any sport, albeit the sample size is very small.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #10: In games between conference opponents, majority handle bettors were just 4-11 ATS (26.7%) when backing one of the teams. Most preseason games are of the non-conference variety, this is another opportunity to fade majorities at a higher success rate.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, PHILADELPHIA
Were there any systems in the 2023 NFL preseason in which majorities actually won? YES! Here are those two spots:
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #11: In the 2023 NFL preseason, when DraftKings totals moved 2 points or more on any given game from open to close, majority number of bets groups were 10-7 (58.9%). This is nowhere near as definitive as the negative systems thus far but still a possible spot in which the back the majority.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: IND-CIN, CHI-KC, MIA-TB, SF-LVR, CAR-BUF
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #12: In the 2023 NFL preseason, majority handle bettors at DraftKings were 8-6 (57.1%) when betting totals in conference games. Again, not spectacular, but a profitable follow chance.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-CIN, MIN-PHI
NFL Preseason Systematic Betting Concepts
The following NFL betting trend systems were from the article NFL preseason betting concepts for 2023 posted the day prior to the NFL Hall-of-Fame Game
Line ranges have proven very telling
Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, there have been 14 teams that have been favored by more than seven points. Nine of these heavy favorites won their games outright. However, they were 4-10 ATS (28.6%). At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 150-119-4 ATS for 55.8% (in 2024 they are 7-7 ATS). Most games however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 176-114 ATS, good for 60.7%! On that last angle, underdogs in 2023 went 13-8 ATS (in 2024 that last angle is 14-4 ATS).
System Match(es):
Favorites more than -7: NONE
Favorites -3.5 to -7 (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, JACKSONVILLE, SAN FRANCISCO, PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, DALLAS, TENNESSEE, DENVER, NEW ENGLAND
Underdogs +1 to +3 (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY, MIAMI, BUFFALO, PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE, NY JETS, SEATTLE
Home-field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
In looking at the home/road results of the last 12 NFL preseasons, there’s been only two years where home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS. Last year, hosts were just 21-27 ATS (in 2024 they are 16-16 ATS). If you’re simply guessing on these games, or wagering them for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their “home-field advantage” tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 386-344 ATS edge, good for 52.9%, and essentially enough to make a reasonable profit without any other handicapping considered. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 79-40 ATS as such since 2015, good for 66.4%! On cue, these road underdogs in 2023 went 6-3 ATS (in 2024 these road underdogs are 4-2 ATS).
System Match(es):
Road Underdog of 2.5 points or less (PLAY ALL): NONE YET (watch for CHICAGO at KC, MIAMI at TB, MINNESOTA at PHI, BALTIMORE at GB)
“37” is a magic number for totals
Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proven to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone Over at a rate of 57.7% (282-207), including 10-3 last preseason (in 2024 they are 3-12). Those closing totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 56.8% clip (541-411) (in 2024 they are 14-4).
System Match(es):
Totals >=37 (PLAY UNDER): MIA-TB, CLE-SEA
Totals < 37 (PLAY OVER): ALL OTHER GAMES
Big wins have a carryover effect
NFL teams coming off preseason wins of 20+ points and favored are on a 24-7 SU and 18-10-2 ATS (64.3%) surge since 2013. Most bettors tend to favor a yin-yang strategy in the preseason, assuming that the scales balance out, but in truth, big wins have provided big momentum for the next game as well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (-1 at KC), DENVER (-3.5 vs. ARI)
Teams off double-digit losses are bad bets at home, good on road
Double-digit games are noteworthy as indicators of the potential performance of the losing team in the follow up game. When these teams have played at home the following week, they have gone just 34-52 ATS (39.5%) since 2013 (in 2024 they are 0-4 ATS). When they faced their next contest on the road, they have performed well, 55-41 ATS (57.3%) in that same time span, including 7-3 ATS last year (in 2024 they are 2-0 ATS). This near-15% variance is something you are going to want to give consideration to in the final two weeks of this year’s preseason.
System Match(es):
D-D LOSS TEAMS @ HOME (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+6.5 vs. IND), TAMPA BAY (-3 vs. MIA), LAS VEGAS (+6 vs. SF), GREEN BAY (-3 vs. BAL)
D-D LOSS TEAMS ON ROAD (PLAY ALL): NY GIANTS (-1 at NYJ), CLEVELAND (-2 at SEA)
Teams that didn’t score well at all are good Over bets the next game
Struggling offenses tend to bounce back well in the next outing of the preseason as teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason contest have gone 79-60-1 Over the total (56.8%) in next game since 2010. These teams average 20.2 PPG in the next contest, while giving up 20.6. If you’re looking for a short-term ATS edge on these teams, they are also on a current 14-5 ATS (73.7%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): IND-CIN, MIA-DET, CAR-BUF, PIT-DET, BAL-GB, LAC-DAL, NE-WAS
Fade home teams that had huge defensive efforts last time out
Teams playing at home after allowing 7 points or fewer in their previous preseason game are just 21-29-1 SU and 18-31-2 ATS (36.7%) since 2010. Their average points allowed in the follow-up contest balloons to 19.6 PPG, a lofty total by preseason standards.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO (+2.5 vs. CAR), DENVER (-3.5 vs. ARI)
Preseason games between conference opponents lean heavily Under
Interestingly, dating back to September 2015, preseason games between opponents from the same conference have trended heavily Under the total, going 63-38 Under (62.4%) (in 2024 they are 7-1). Just over one-third of preseason games fall into this category. Furthermore, if you add the qualifiers from #7 above to that time span, preseason games between conference opponents with totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 52-24 rate (68.4%) since September 2015 (in 2024 they are 5-1)!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-CIN, MIN-PHI
*Totals >=37* (PLAY UNDER): NONE YET THIS WEEK
This Week’s NFLPS Strength Ratings
The following NFL bettingtrends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS +6 (+5.1), 2. BUFFALO +2.5 (+4.7), 3. DETROIT +6.5 (+3.3), 4. PHILADELPHIA +1 (+3.0), 5. NEW ORELANS +3.5 (+2.5)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -1 (+1.7), 2. HOUSTON -6.5 (+1.6), 3. DENVER -3.5 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS +6 (+6.5), 2. BUFFALO +2.5 (+2.1), 3. LA CHARGERS +3.5 (+1.7) and ARIZONA +3.5 (+1.7), 5. NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -1 (+3.3), 2. TAMPA BAY -3 (+2.5), 3. GREEN BAY -3 (+2.2), 4. CLEVELAND -2 (+1.9), 5. INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 4 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-CIN OVER 34.5 (+3.4), 2. CLE-SEA OVER 38 (+0.8), 3. JAX-ATL OVER 35.5 (+0.7), 4. NYG-NYJ OVER 31.5 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-TB UNDER 37.5 (-4.9), 2. LAR-HOU UNDER 34 (-4.0), 3. TEN-NO UNDER 36.5 (-3.5), 4. LAC-DAL UNDER 33.5 (-2.5), 5. NE-WAS UNDER 34 (-2.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS +6 (+5.7), 2. BUFFALO +2.5 (+3.9), 3. PHILADELPHIA +1 (+3.8), 4. DETROIT +6.5 (+3.2), 5. LA CHARGERS +3.5 (+3.0)
This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -1 (+1.8), 2. DENVER -3.5 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-KC OVER 32 (+2.6), 2. BAL-GB OVER 33.5 (+1.8) and MIN-PHI OVER 33.5 (+1.8), 4. IND-CIN OVER 34.5 (+1.3), 5. SF-LVR OVER 35 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JAX-ATL UNDER 35.5 (-3.5), 2. MIA-TB UNDER 37.5 (-2.9), 3. LAC-DAL UNDER 33.5 (-2.2), 4. NE-WAS UNDER 34 (-1.7), 5. TEN-NO UNDER 36.5 (-1.5)
Top NFLPS Team Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of preseason action:
Overall NFL Betting Trends
ATLANTA is on a 5-20-1 SU and 5-21 ATS skid in the preseason
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+7 vs. JAX)
Baltimore has lost its last six preseason games ATS after an incredible 21-1-1 ATS stretch
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (+3 at GB)
BUFFALO is on a 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS surge in the preseason but is 2-4 ATS in last six
CHICAGO is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in two preseasons under head coach Matt Eberflus, not including the storm shortened 2024 Hall-of-Fame Game
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-1 at KC)
DALLAS is 4-3 SU and ATS in its last seven preseason games after going 6-21-3 ATS in its prior 30
DENVER is 12-5 Under the total in its last 17 preseason games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in ARI-DEN (o/u at 35.5)
DETROIT is on a 13-5 Over the total surge in preseason games, allowing 24.2 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER in PIT-DET (o/u at 35.5)
HOUSTON is on an 11-2 Under the total run in preseason games, total point production 32.6 PPG
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-HOU (o/u at 34)
LA RAMS are on a 2-5 SU and ATS skid, outscored 24.3-12.4 on average
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (+6.5 at HOU)
LAS VEGAS is on an impressive 12-6 SU and ATS preseason surge
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (+6 vs. SF)
MINNESOTA is on a 2-11 SU and 4-8 ATS skid
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-1 at PHI)
NEW ENGLAND is on a current 12-4 Under the total surge in the preseason
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NE-WAS (o/u at 34)
NEW ORLEANS has gone 19-6-1 Under the total in its last 26 preseason tilts
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TEN-NO (o/u at 36.5)
NY GIANTS are on unique 11-4 Over the total run, total point production 42.2 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER in NYG-NYJ (o/u at 31.5)
The NY JETS are on 11-3-1 SU and 11-4 ATS run in the preseason
System Match: PLAY NY JETS (+1 vs. NYG)
PHILADELPHIA has gone 5-13-2 SU and 6-13-1 ATS in the last 20 preseason games
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+1 vs. MIN)
PITTSBURGH is 6-2 SU and ATS in last eight and is 19-5 SU and 17-7 ATS dating back to 2017
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-6.5 at DET)
SEATTLE has gone Under the total in 11 of its last 13 preseason contests
System Match: PLAY UNDER in CLE-SEA (o/u at 38)
Home/Road NFL Betting Trends
ATLANTA is just 2-9-1 SU and 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home preseason games, as well as 10-2 Under the total
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+7 vs. JAX), also PLAY UNDER in JAX-ATL (o/u at 35.5)
BUFFALO has won and covered six of last seven preseason home games
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2.5 vs. CAR)
CHICAGO is on an impressive run on 9-3-1 ATS in last 13 road preseason games, and is 8-1 Over the total in its last nine
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-1 at KC), also PLAY OVER in CHI-KC (o/u at 32)
CINCINNATI has gone 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road preseason tilts but just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 at home
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+6.5 vs. IND)
CLEVELAND boasts a 9-2-1 SU and 10-2 ATS mark in its last 12 preseason contests away from home
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-2 at SEA)
DETROIT is on skids of 1-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in home preseason games
System Match: FADE DETROIT (+6.5 vs. PIT)
LAS VEGAS has won seven of the last eight preseason home games SU and ATS, holding opponents to 10.7 PPG
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (+6 vs. SF)
NEW ENGLAND is 12-5 Under the total in its last 17 preseason road affairs
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NE-WAS (o/u at 34)
PHILADELPHIA is on a 0-6-1 SU and 0-7 ATS skid at home in the preseason
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+1 vs MIN)
SAN FRANCISCO has gone Under the total in eight of its last nine road preseason games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in SF-LVR (o/u at 35)
SEATTLE is on an 11-1 UNDER the total run in home preseason games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in CLE-SEA (o/u at 38)
Since 2013, TAMPA BAY is just 5-14 SU and 4-15 ATS in home preseason contests
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-3 vs. MIA)
WASHINGTON is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home preseason games
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+5.5 vs. NE)
Off SU Win/Loss NFL Betting Trends
CAROLINA is on 11-5 SU and 11-4-1 ATS run in its last 16 preseason games following a loss the week prior, but 2-9 ATS in last 11 following a win
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA (-2.5 at BUF)
WASHINGTON has gone 9-1 Under the total in last 10 games following up a preseason loss
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NE-WAS (o/u at 34)
Favorite/Underdog NFL Betting Trends
BUFFALO is on a 10-1 SU and ATS surge as a preseason underdog
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2.5 vs. CAR)
CHICAGO is 15-4 ATS since 2015 as a preseason underdog
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (*if they become an underdog at KC, -1 currently)
CINCINNATI is on a 9-3 ATS surge as a preseason underdog but is 2-8 ATS as chalk
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+6.5 vs. IND)
CLEVELAND is 8-0-1 ATS since 2017 as a preseason underdog but 1-8 ATS in the last nine as a favorite
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-2 at SEA)
DALLAS is on a 4-12-3 ATS skid as preseason favorite
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-3.5 vs. LAC)
NEW ORLEANS is 2-8 SU and ATS in its last 10 as preseason underdog
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs. TEN)
NY GIANTS are 16-7 ATS in last 23 as preseason underdogs but 2-9 ATS last 11 as favorites
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS (-1 at NYJ)
Top NFLPS Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ preseason action:
8/22/24 – (105) INDIANAPOLIS at (106) CINCINNATI
* Underdogs have won the last five ATS in preseason head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+6.5 vs. IND)
8/23/24 – (111) MIAMI at (112) TAMPA BAY
* Road teams have won the last five ATS in preseason head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+3 at TB)
8/24/24 – (127) NY GIANTS at (128) NY JETS
* NY JETS have covered last three ATS in preseason head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY NY JETS (+1 vs. NYG)
8/25/24 – (133) ARIZONA at (134) DENVER
* The last three games of the ARI-DEN preseason head-to-head series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 35.5)
8/25/24 – (135) NEW ENGLAND at (136) WASHINGTON
* Favorites have won last three ATS in preseason head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND (-5.5 at WSH)
The post NFL Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (Preseason Week 3) appeared first on VSiN.
