FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks:
Aaron Rai had been on the precipice of earning his first PGA Tour victory for close to two seasons and finally broke through Sunday at the Wyndham Championship. He finished 18 under par, beating Max Greyserman by two shots and cashing a 35-1 winner for this column (to go along with Lydia Ko at 40-1 in the Olympics).
Rai, a two-time winner on the DP World Tour, closed with a 6-under round of 64. He was four strokes back after Greyserman holed out from 91 yards for eagle on the par-4 13th, then unexpectedly shared the lead a hole later when Greyserman drove out of bounds and made a quadruple-bogey eight on 14.
The Englishman led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and Fairway Proximity, plus was second for Scrambling, third for Greens In Regulation and seventh for Driving Accuracy. Last week, we mentioned that Rai led the field entering the Wyndham for Fairways Hit Percentage, Good Drive Percentage and was third for Strokes Gained: Approach.
Greyserman — who shot 60 in the second round — birdied the par-5 15th to pull a shot ahead, then four-putted the par-3 16th for a double bogey and failed to overtake Rai in the final two holes.
Rai moved up to 25th in the FedEx Cup Playoff standings with the victory that capped a hot summer. Greyserman moves up to 47th off consecutive runner-up finishes at the 3M Open and the Wyndham Championship.
Every player in the Wyndham field had to play 36 holes while some had to do more because of a rainout on Thursday and weather delays on Friday and Saturday. However, the regular season is concluded, and the PGA Tour is on to the FedEx Cup Playoffs where the Top 70 in the standings will tee it up in Memphis, home of FedEx, this week for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
A week removed from winning Olympic gold, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+350), who has a slightly less than 2,000-point lead in the FedEx Cup Playoff standings, is the tournament favorite as he is every week, but he has never finished inside the top 10 here in six career appearances.
Xander Schauffele (8-1) won his second major championship of the season four weeks ago at the British Open. The World No. 2 player has just one top-10 finish at Memphis in six career starts.
Rory McIlroy (9-1) returned from a month off after giving away the U.S. Open to finish with top-5s at the Scottish Open and the Olympics, but he missed the cut at the British Open. He finished third here last year.
Collin Morikawa (14-1) has played good golf all season but is struggling to finish on Sunday as he remains winless in 2024.
Also without a victory in 2024 are Ludvig Åberg (20-1), who is playing his first full season on the PGA Tour, Patrick Cantlay (25-1) and Olympic silver medalist Tommy Fleetwood (25-1).
Last week’s winner Rai is 45-1.
There are a multitude of former winners in Memphis who are playing this week, not including last year’s champion Lucas Glover as he finished 78th in the FedEx Cup points. Past winners in the field include 2022 winner Will Zalatoris (110-1), 2020 winner Justin Thomas (40-1) and 2013 Memphis winner Harris English (125-1).
The Field
The Top 70 players in the FedEx Cup Point standings make up this week’s field. The top 50 in the points after this week’s event will move on to next week’s BMW Championship to be held at Castle Pines Golf Club in Denver. After next week’s event, the top 30 move on to the Tour Championship to be held at its customary venue of East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.
The FedEx St. Jude features a $20 million purse and is a no-cut event.
Here is the field courtesy of PGA Tour Communications:
The current FedEx Cup Standings are here.
The Course
Located in Memphis, Tenn., TPC Southwind was built in 1988 and was designed by Ron Prichard, in consultation with PGA Tour professionals Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green. It is regarded as one of the more difficult TPC courses.
The layout plays as a 7,243-yard par-70. The Zoysiagrass (like East Lake in Atlanta) fairways are some of the narrowest (29 yards wide on average — seventh narrowest out of 46 PGA Tour courses) on tour. The Bermuda rough measures to 2.5 inches and can be tricky and unpredictable. The greens, made of Champion Bermudagrass, are straightforward and average speed (12 stimpmeter) but are some of the smallest (third on tour) at just 4,300 square feet.
With 11 holes having the danger of water, TPC Southwind has the most “water balls” on tour by far.
Other TPC Southwind course facts are provided by the Golf Course Superintendents Association of America.
Here is the official FedEx St. Jude Championship scorecard courtesy of PGATOUR.com:
Comparable courses to TPC Southwind include TPC Sawgrass, PGA National, Innisbrook, East Lake, Waialae and Pebble Beach.
Recent History/Winners
FedEx St. Jude Championship
2023: Lucas Glover (-15/265); 90-1*
2022: Will Zalatoris (-15/265); 28-1**
WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
2021: Abraham Ancer (-16/264); 45-1***
2020: Justin Thomas (-13/267); 12-1
2019: Brooks Koepka (-16/264); 11-1
FedEx St. Jude Classic
2018: Dustin Johnson (-19/261); 7-1
2017: Daniel Berger (-10/270); 28-1
2016: Daniel Berger (-13/267); 33-1
2015: Fabián Gómez (-13/267); 400-1
2014: Ben Crane (-10/270); 175-1
2013: Harris English (-12/268); 66-1
2012: Dustin Johnson (-9/271); 20-1
2011: Harrison Frazar (-13/267); 275-1****
2010: Lee Westwood (-10/270); 12-1*****
Playoff win over Patrick Cantlay – *
Playoff win over Sepp Straka – **
Playoff win over Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama – ***
Playoff win over Robert Karlsson – ****
Playoff win over Robert Garrigus & Robert Karlsson – *****
You will notice a common theme among most of the recent winners here in that they are all proficient with approach play.
Statistical Analysis
A plurality of the strokes gained on this course are on approach. Over the last seven years, the winner has averaged seventh on approach during the winning week with Zalatoris leading the field for the category in 2022 and Thomas ranking second for his 2020 victory.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 season)
- Scottie Scheffler 1.485
- Tony Finau 0.890
- Tom Hoge 0.885
- Corey Conners 0.853
- Xander Schauffele 0.779
- Aaron Rai 0.723
- Shane Lowry 0.609
- Ludvig Åberg 0.601
- Si Woo Kim 0.524
- Justin Thomas 0.517
- Jhonattan Vegas 0.512
- Akshay Bhatia 0.479
- Austin Eckroat 0.414
- Rory McIlroy 0.397
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.391
At TPC Southwind, there are 12 doglegs and some of the narrowest fairways on tour plus multiple water hazards, fairway bunkers and penal Bermuda rough. Distance is not as important off the tee, but finding fairways is paramount. The Fairways Hit Percentage and Good Drive Percentage are better indicators for off-the-tee success this week.
Fairways Hit Percentage (2024 season)
- Aaron Rai 73.41%
- Collin Morikawa 71.98
- Sepp Straka 71.02
- Brendon Todd 70.22
- Austin Eckroat 69.60
- Tommy Fleetwood 69.39
- Russell Henley 68.54
- Shane Lowry 67.34
- Si Woo Kim 67.28
- Mark Hubbard 66.96
- J.T. Poston 66.70
- Scottie Scheffler 66.58
- Brian Harman 66.51
- Tom Kim 65.44
- Emiliano Grillo 65.32
Good Drive Percentage (2024 season)
- Aaron Rai 87.87%
- Jhonattan Vegas 86.75
- Russell Henley 85.66
- Brendon Todd 84.66
- Mark Hubbard 84.65
- Si Woo Kim 84.51
- Akshay Bhatia 84.01
- Austin Eckroat 83.68
- Chris Kirk 83.61
- Tom Hoge 83.30
- Jordan Spieth 83.23
- Tony Finau 83.05
- Keegan Bradley 82.98
- Billy Horschel 82.96
- Brian Harman 82.82
Around two-thirds of the approach shots will come from 125 to 200 yards out, so we can examine the Proximity buckets within those ranges.
Proximity 125-150 Yards (2024 season)
- Tom Hoge 19′ 2″ (feet, inches to the hole)
- Tom Kim 20′ 1″
- Shane Lowry 20′ 4″
- Matthieu Pavon 20′ 4″
- Scottie Scheffler 20′ 4″
- Chris Kirk 21′ 0″
- Russell Henley 21′ 1″
- Corey Conners 21′ 2″
- Emiliano Grillo 21′ 2″
- Billy Horschel 21′ 2″
- Akshay Bhatia 21′ 6″
- Si Woo Kim 21′ 6″
- Max Greyserman 21′ 8″
- Ben Griffin 21′ 8″
- Seamus Power 21′ 8″
Proximity 150-175 Yards (2024 season)
- Scottie Scheffler 23′ 1″
- Rory McIlroy 24′ 4″
- Emiliano Grillo 24′ 8″
- Corey Conners 24′ 9″
- Keegan Bradley 25′ 0″
- Ludvig Åberg 25′ 1″
- Sepp Straka 25′ 1″
- Brian Harman 25′ 4″
- Stephan Jaeger 25′ 7″
- Seamus Power 25′ 8″
- Jhonattan Vegas 25′ 9″
- Austin Eckroat 26′ 1″
- Tony Finau 26′ 3″
- Eric Cole 26′ 4″
- Collin Morikawa 26′ 4″
Proximity 175-200 Yards (2024 season)
- Byeong Hun An 29′ 4″
- Collin Morikawa 29′ 11″
- Adam Hadwin 30′ 0″
- Ludvig Åberg 30′ 2″
- Hideki Matsuyama 30′ 3″
- Jhonattan Vegas 30′ 6″
- Viktor Hovland 30′ 10″
- Cameron Young 31′ 2″
- Scottie Scheffler 31′ 7″
- Erik van Rooyen 31′ 8″
- Austin Eckroat 31′ 9″
- Aaron Rai 31′ 9″
- Akshay Bhatia 32′ 4″
- Tom Hoge 32′ 5″
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 32′ 10″
Three of the last five winners at TPC Southwind led the field in the Scrambling (Glover, Ancer, Koepka) during their respective victorious weeks.
Scrambling (2024 season)
- Xander Schauffele 70.41%
- Alex Noren 68.12
- Hideki Matsuyama 67.91
- Scottie Scheffler 67.62
- Denny McCarthy 66.34
- Mackenzie Hughes 65.05
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 65.03
- Billy Horschel 65.01
- Tommy Fleetwood 64.80
- Russell Henley 64.69
- Collin Morikawa 64.63
- Maverick McNealy 64.48
- Rory McIlroy 64.47
- Max Homa 64.42
- Aaron Rai 64.19
Six of the 12 par-4s at TPC Southwind measure from 450-500 yards.
Strokes Gained par-4s 450-500 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 45.8
- Rory McIlroy 37.7
- Ludvig Åberg 35.4
- Xander Schauffele 31.3
- Hideki Matsuyama 30
- Viktor Hovland 28
- Aaron Rai 27.5
- Collin Morikawa 24
- Mark Hubbard 23.4
- Alex Noren 22.7
- Jordan Spieth 22.4
- Maverick McNealy 21.7
- Max Greyserman 21.4
- Russell Henley 21.4
- Sungjae Im 20.6
Birdies are not all that easy to come by except the par-5s, so Birdie or Better Percentage gives us an indication of who can steal a couple of circles on the scorecard.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 season)
- Scottie Scheffler 28.19%
- Wyndham Clark 25.50
- Byeong Hun An 25.21
- Xander Schauffele 24.88
- Sam Burns 24.70
- Tom Hoge 24.47
- Tony Finau 24.41
- Rory McIlroy 24.41
- Jhonattan Vegas 24.38
- Nick Dunlap 24.20
- Maverick McNealy 24.13
- Sungjae Im 24.07
- Erik van Rooyen 24.02
- Ludvig Åberg 23.99
- Max Greyserman 23.93
- Davis Thompson 23.93
The unpredictability of the Bermuda rough, plus 11 water danger holes, and numerous greenside bunkers protecting smaller greens will result in numerous squares or worse all over the course.
Bogey Avoidance (2024 season)
- Scottie Scheffler 9.20%
- Xander Schauffele 9.47
- Aaron Rai 12.05
- Alex Noren 12.40
- Collin Morikawa 12.94
- Ludvig Åberg 13.05
- Ben Griffin 13.05
- Tommy Fleetwood 13.23
- Hideki Matsuyama 13.33
- Billy Horschel 13.35
- Rory McIlroy 13.39
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 13.43
- Russell Henley 13.57
- Jason Day 13.69
- Victor Perez 13.81
The greens are not all that difficult to putt at TPC Southwind. Nevertheless, it can be what decides the event because each player likely will miss at least a handful of greens each round.
Strokes Gained Putting Bermuda Greens (Last 50 rounds)
- Maverick McNealy 38.8
- Ben Griffin 35.5
- Denny McCarthy 35.3
- Thomas Detry 34.1
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 33.8
- Billy Horschel 32.4
- Alex Noren 30
- Sahith Theegala 29
- Xander Schauffele 27.5
- Harris English 27.4
- Wyndham Clark 27.3
- Russell Henley 27.1
- Jason Day 26.6
- Matt Fitzpatrick 25.1
- Jordan Spieth 22.9
Selections
Rory McIlroy (11-1, Circa Sports)
Other than the missed cut at the British Open largely due to being on the bad side of the weather draw, McIlroy has not finished outside the top 15 since May.
He gagged away the U.S. Open, finished top 5 in the RBC Canadian Open, Scottish Open and the Olympic.
McIlroy finished third here last year just one stroke out of the playoff and is arguably the top player who cares the most about winning the FedEx Cup considering he is the all-time leader with three.
Patrick Cantlay (28-1, Circa Sports)
The 2021 FedEx Cup champion has won FedEx Playoff events in two of the last three seasons and was also runner-up here last year, losing in a playoff to Lucas Glover.
He has seen his best pal Xander Schauffele win two major championships this year, so that has to provide some extra motivation to keep up. Schauffele won Olympic gold in 2021 and Cantlay immediately won his FedEx Cup after that.
This is the time of year when Cantlay typically peaks and his last nine FedEx Playoff events have yielded three victories, a runner-up and a two more top-10 finishes.
Russell Henley (35-1, FanDuel)
Henley was in the mix at Royal Troon but settled for a T-5 in the British Open.
He has two top-10s here in Memphis, including a sixth last year.
Like Rai last week (and this week for that matter), Henley is a fairway finder and keeps it out of trouble, which will serve him well this week.
Billy Horschel (49-1, Circa Sports)
Horschel finished seventh last week at the Wyndham while cheering on his friend and Ponte Vedra Beach neighbor Aaron Rai to his first PGA Tour victory.
Before last week, he finished runner-up at the British Open for his best career major championship finish.
The 2014 FedEx Cup champion has four top-10 finishes in the last 10 years in Memphis.
Austin Eckroat (170-1, Circa Sports)
Eckroat earned his first PGA Tour career victory earlier this season in the Cognizant Classic at PGA National, which is a fair correlation to TPC Southwind with all the water on the course.
He finished sixth last week at the Wyndham, which was his best finish since that maiden victory. At the Wyndham, he rated fourth for Strokes Gained Off The Tee and sixth for Driving Accuracy.
Placement markets and matchups will be available on Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks
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