This Week’s NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the 2024 NFL preseason games of Week 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFLPS board.
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #1: Looking back at the 2023 NFL preseason, majority handle bettors on sides were just 14-30 ATS (31.8%). Until proven otherwise, any August majority handle in the NFL should be faded.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #2: For the 3+ week 2023 NFL preseason, majority bets groups on sides were just 17-32 ATS (34.7%). This is another majority group that should be faded until further notice.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #3: Looking back at the 2023 NFL preseason, majority handle bettors on totals were just 19-28 ATS (40.4%). While not as bad as the side percentages, there is still a continued fade opportunity in 2024.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #4: For the 3+ week 2023 NFL preseason, majority bets groups on totals were just 18-29 ATS (38.3%). A little less success for majority bets than handle on totals.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the handle backed either team in a 2023 preseason game that saw a line move of 3 points or more from open to close, that group was just 3-13 ATS (18.8%), a percentage low topped only by #9 below.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, LAS VEGAS
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle backed either team in a 2023 preseason game that had a point spread of 3 points or higher, that majority group went just 9-21 ATS (30%). This is a slight drop off from the 31.8% overall win rate in system #1, so worth further consideration.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, DETROIT, NY JETS, LAS VEGAS, TENNESSEE, CINCINNATI, LA RAMS
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of number of bets backed a 2023 NFL preseason team in a game with a point spread of 2.5 points or lower, that group was just 4-12 ATS (25%). This is almost 10% worse than the overall bets majority win rate. Look to fade the majority number of bettors in expected tight games this month.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, BALTIMORE, BUFFALO, GREEN BAY, KANSAS CITY, LA CHARGERS, NEW ORLEANS, INDIANAPOLIS
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority number of bets was 60% or greater on any team in the 2023 NFL preseason, that group went 9-21 ATS (30%). These bigger majorities lost more than the overall groups.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, BALTIMORE, NY JETS, BUFFALO, SAN FRANCISCO, KANSAS CITY, INDIANAPOLIS, LA RAMS
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #9: In the 2023 NFL preseason, when DraftKings lines moved towards the road teams throughout the week but majority handle bettors stuck with the home teams, that group went just 1-7 ATS (12.5%). This might be the lowest DK splits percentage system I’ve posted for any sport, albeit the sample size is very small.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY JETS, BUFFALO, CLEVELAND, ARIZONA, LA RAMS
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #10: In games between conference opponents, majority handle bettors were just 4-11 ATS (26.7%) when backing one of the teams. Most preseason games are of the non-conference variety, this is another opportunity to fade majorities at a higher success rate.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, PITTSBURGH, JACKSONVILLE, ARIZONA, INDIANAPOLIS, LA RAMS
Were there any NFL betting trend systems in the 2023 NFL preseason in which majorities actually won? YES! Here are those two spots:
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #11: In the 2023 NFL preseason, when DraftKings totals moved 2 points or more on any given game from open to close, majority number of bets groups were 10-7 (58.9%). This is nowhere near as definitive as the negative systems thus far but still a possible spot in which the back the majority.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: PHI-BAL, TB-CIN
PLAY UNDER in: GB-CLE, LVR-MIN
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #12: In the 2023 NFL preseason, majority handle bettors at DraftKings were 8-6 (57.1%) when betting totals in conference games. Again, not spectacular, but a profitable follow chance.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: DET-NYG, HOU-PIT, KC-JAX, NO-ARI, DAL-LAR
PLAY UNDER in: DEN-IND
NFL Preseason Systematic Betting Concepts
The following NFL betting trend systems were from the article NFL Preseason Betting Concepts for 2024.
Line ranges have proven very telling
Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, there have been 13 teams that have been favored by more than 7 points. Nine of these heavy favorites won their games outright. However, they were 4-9 ATS (30.8%). At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been reliable, going 143-112-4 ATS for 56.1%. Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 162-110 ATS, good for 59.6%! On that last angle, underdogs in 2023 went 13-8 ATS.
System Match(es):
Favorites more than -7: NONE
Favorites -3.5 to -7 (PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, NY GIANTS, LAS VEGAS, TENNESSEE, CINCINNATI, DALLAS
Underdogs +1 to +3 (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, NY JETS, BUFFALO, GREEN BAY, KANSAS CITY, LA CHARGERS, ARIZONA, DENVER
Home-field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
In looking at the home/road results of the last 12 NFL preseasons, there have been only two years where home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS. Last year, hosts were just 21-27 ATS. If you’re simply guessing on these games or wagering them for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their “home-field advantage” tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams have owned a 370-328 ATS edge, good for 53%, and essentially enough to make a reasonable profit without any other handicapping considered. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 75-38 ATS as such since 2015, good for 66.4%! On cue, these road underdogs in 2023 went 6-3 ATS.
System Match(es):
Road Underdog of 2.5 points or less (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, GREEN BAY, KANSAS CITY, DENVER
“37” is a magic number for totals
Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proven to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone Over at a rate of 58.9% (279-195), including 10-3 last preseason. Those closing totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 56.4% clip (527-407).
System Match(es):
Totals < 37 (PLAY OVER): CAR-NE, DET-NYG, PHI-BAL, WAS-NYJ, SEA-LAC, DAL-LAR
Totals >=37 (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIA, HOU-PIT, CHI-BUF, LVR-MIN, GB-CLE, SF-TEN, TB-CIN, KC-JAX, NO-ARI, DEN-IND
Preseason games between conference opponents lean heavily Under
Interestingly, dating back to September 2015, preseason games between opponents from the same conference have trended heavily Under the total, going 56-37 Under (60.2%). Just over one-third of preseason games fall into this category. Furthermore, if you add the qualifiers from #3 above to that time span, preseason games between conference opponents with totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 47-23 rate (67.1%) since September 2015!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-NYG, HOU-PIT, KC-JAX, NO-ARI, DEN-IND, DAL-LAR
Totals >=37 (PLAY UNDER): HOU-PIT, KC-JAX, NO-ARI, DEN-IND
This week’s NFLPS Strength Ratings
The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+6.3), 2. TAMPA BAY +3.5 (+3.5), 3. MIAMI +2.5 (+3.3), 4. CAROLINA +7 (+2.7), 5. LA RAMS +4.5 (+2.6)
This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -1 (+3.3), 2. SEATTLE -2 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+4.5), 2. CAROLINA +7 (+3.1), 3. NY JETS +3 (+2.7), 4. KANSAS CITY +2.5 (+1.0), 5. PHILADELPHIA +1 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -4.5 (+1.4), 2. INDIANAPOLIS -1 (+1.0), 3. CHICAGO -1 (+0.8), 4. ATLANTA -2.5 (+0.5), 5. SEATTLE -2 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-BAL OVER 34 (+1.2), 2. WAS-NYJ OVER 34 (+0.9), 3. CAR-NE OVER 33.5 (+0.7) and CHI-BUF OVER 38 (+0.7), 5. SF-TEN OVER 38.5 (+0.4) and KC-JAX OVER 39 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LVR-MIN UNDER 39 (-4.9), 2. GB-CLE UNDER 39.5 (-4.3), 3. TB-CIN UNDER 38 (-2.6), 4. ATL-MIA UNDER 38 (-2.2), 5. HOU-PIT UNDER 37.5 (-0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+6.7), 2. TAMPA BAY +4.5 (+3.6), 3. GREEN BAY +2.5 (+3.5), 4. CAROLINA +7 (+2.9), 5. LA RAMS +4.5 (+2.2)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -1 (+2.1), 2. SEATTLE -2 (+1.8), 3. NEW ORLEANS -1.5 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-NYG OVER 34.5 (+2.5), 2. PHI-BAL OVER 34 (+1.4), 3. WAS-NYJ OVER 34 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-CLE UNDER 39.5 (-5.1), 2. TB-CIN UNDER 38 (-4.1), 3. ATL-MIA UNDER 38 (-3.1), 4. SF-TEN UNDER 38.5 (-2.9), 5. LVR-MIN UNDER 39 (-2.5)
Top NFLPS Team Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of preseason action:
Overall Trends
Teams that lose HOF game have followed up with a 0-5 SU and ATS in next game in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-2.5 at PIT)
ATLANTA is on a 5-18-1 SU and 4-20 ATS skid in the preseason
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 at MIA)
BALTIMORE has lost its last four preseason games ATS after an incredible 21-1-1 ATS stretch
BUFFALO is on a 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS surge in the preseason but is 1-3 ATS in the last four
CHICAGO is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in two preseasons under head coach Matt Eberflus, not including the storm-shortened 2024 Hall-of-Fame Game
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-1 at BUF)
DALLAS is 3-2 SU & ATS in its last five preseason games after going 6-21-3 ATS in its prior 30
DENVER is 11-4 Under the total in its last 15 preseason games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in DEN-IND (o/u at 38)
DETROIT is on a 12-4 Over the total surge in preseason games, allowing 24.9 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in DET-NYG (o/u at 34.5)
HOUSTON is on a 9-2 Under the total run in preseason games, total point production 32.1 PPG
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in HOU-PIT (o/u at 37.5)
LA RAMS are on a 0-5 SU and ATS preseason skid entering 2024, outscored 29.8-12.2 on average
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (+4.5 vs. DAL)
LAS VEGAS is on an impressive 12-4 SU and ATS preseason surge
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (-3.5 at MIN)
MINNESOTA has lost 10 straight preseason games while going 2-8 ATS
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+3.5 vs. LVR)
NEW ENGLAND is on a current 11-4 Under the total surge in the preseason
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in CAR-NE (o/u at 33.5)
NEW ORLEANS has gone 17-6-1 Under the total in its last 24 preseason tilts
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in NO-ARI (o/u at 37)
NY GIANTS are on unique 11-2 Over the total run, total point production 44.5 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in DET-NYG (o/u at 34.5)
The NY JETS are on 9-3-1 SU and 9-4 ATS run in the preseason
System Match: PLAY NY JETS (+3 vs. WSH)
PHILADELPHIA has gone 3-13-2 SU and 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 preseason games
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+1 at BAL)
PITTSBURGH has won its last six preseason games SU and ATS and is 18-4 SU and 16-6 ATS dating back to 2017
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+2.5 vs. HOU)
SEATTLE has gone Under the total in nine of its last 11 preseason contests
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in SEA-LAC (o/u at 35)
Home/Road Trends
BALTIMORE is currently on a 12-game home preseason winning streak (10-2 ATS) and is 21-3 SU in its last 24
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-1 vs. PHI)
BUFFALO has won and covered its last six preseason home games
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+1 vs. CHI)
CHICAGO is on an impressive run on 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 road preseason games, and is 7-1 Over the total in its last eight
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-1 at BUF), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 38)
CINCINNATI has gone 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road preseason tilts but just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 at home
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-4.5 vs. TB)
DALLAS is 1-16 SU and 3-14 ATS on the preseason road since 2012
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-4.5 at LAR)
GREEN BAY broke a seven-game road preseason losing streak in 2023 but is still 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight such contests
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY (+2.5 at CLE)
HOUSTON has won its last five true road preseason games SU and ATS
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-2.5 at PIT)
JACKSONVILLE home preseason games have been a struggle, 8-14 SU and 6-15-1 ATS in its last 22
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-2.5 vs. KC)
LA CHARGERS are looking to end 1-10 SU and 2-8-1 ATS skid in preseason home games
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS (+2 vs. SEA)
SAN FRANCISCO has gone Under the total in seven of its last eight road preseason games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in SF-TEN (o/u at 38.5)
Off SU Win/Loss NFL Betting Trends
HOUSTON is 9-1 SU and ATS in its last 10 games rebounding from a preseason loss
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-2.5 at PIT)
Favorite/Underdog Trends
ATLANTA is on 1-8 ATS skid as a preseason favorite
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 at MIA)
BUFFALO is on a 9-1 SU and ATS surge as a preseason underdog
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+1 vs. CHI)
CHICAGO is 14-4 ATS since 2015 as a preseason underdog
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (*if they become an underdog at BUF, -1 currently)
CINCINNATI is on a 9-2 ATS surge as a preseason underdog but is 2-7 ATS as chalk
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-4.5 vs. TB)
CLEVELAND is 8-0-1 ATS since 2017 as a preseason underdog but 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a favorite
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs. GB)
DALLAS is on a 4-11-3 ATS skid as a preseason favorite
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-4.5 at LAR)
GREEN BAY has lost seven straight games SU as preseason dog (0-6-1 ATS)
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY (+2.5 at CLE)
INDIANAPOLIS is on an 8-0-3 ATS surge as a preseason underdog
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (*if they become an underdog vs. DEN, -1 currently)
NEW ORLEANS is 2-8 SU and ATS in its last 10 as a preseason underdog
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (*if they become an underdog at ARI, -1.5 currently)
NY GIANTS are 16-6 ATS in its last 22 as preseason underdogs but 1-9 ATS in its last 10 as favorites
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS (-3.5 vs. DET)
PITTSBURGH is 9-2 SU and ATS in the last 11 as preseason underdog
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+2.5 vs. HOU)
SAN FRANCISCO is on a 6-0-1 ATS streak as preseason underdog
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5 at TEN)
Top NFLPS Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ preseason action:
Thursday, August 8
(103) CAROLINA at (104) NEW ENGLAND
* The last six games of the CAR-NE preseason head-to-head series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 33.5)
* NEW ENGLAND is 5-1 ATS in these last six preseason head-to-head games
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS (-7 vs. CAR)
Friday, August 9
(111) PHILADELPHIA at (112) BALTIMORE
* The last three games of the PHI-BAL preseason head-to-head series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 34)
Saturday, August 10
(125) TAMPA BAY at (126) CINCINNATI
* The last three games of the TB-CIN preseason head-to-head series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 38)
(117) LAS VEGAS at (118) MINNESOTA
* Home teams have won the last three ATS in the preseason head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS (+3.5 vs. LVR)
(127) SEATTLE at (128) LA CHARGERS
* Under the total is 4-1 ATS in the last five preseason head-to-head games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 35)
(115) CHICAGO at (116) BUFFALO
* The last three games of the CHI-BUF preseason head-to-head series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 38)
The post NFL Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (Preseason Week 1) appeared first on VSiN.
