How to Evaluate the NFL Preseason:
We are all so excited for football to start. We don’t care that the starters don’t play or that the games seem boring and meaningless. Fans will watch the NFL preseason games with serious intentions, hoping their team’s first-round pick, or any draft pick for that matter, does something sensational to create excitement. As Art Modell, the former owner of the Browns, would often say to me, “Kid, we are selling hope.” In the preseason, hope springs eternal.
From that hope, our expectations are high, which then creates some ill-founded conclusions. Last year, on the first pass of his NFL career, CJ Stroud threw an out to his left, and it one-hopped out of bounds. Later in the same series against the Patriots, he threw a bad interception, leaving many, including myself, to believe he was a long, long way from being a good player. Stroud demonstrated significant improvement from his first series in the game, proving, once again, that the preseason isn’t for instant evaluations.
As we prepare for the regular season and our Week 1 bets, some will want to be enticed to place wagers on NFL preseason games, while others (like me) will want to learn as much about each team, following a few simple rules. My goal in the NFL preseason is to gain some wisdom about the teams and maneuver my power ratings of teams into the right category, knowing that in September, it will require more adjustments. As the great marketing advertising executive David Ogilvy once said: “Rules are for the obedience of fools and the guidance of wise men.”
The first rule of watching NFL preseason games is not to form any judgements, especially at the quarterback position. Has there been a better preseason quarterback than Sam Ellinger of the Colts? Doubtful. When the real games begin, Sam proves he isn’t ready for the fast pace of the game or how the defense alters its fronts and coverages play to play. In real games, he looks overwhelmed. In preseason, he looks like Drew Brees.
It was the same with Aidan O’Connell of the Raiders last year. He was the talk of the team until the games counted and he couldn’t adapt to the speed of the game. Yes, he had a few good moments against soft zone teams like the Chargers and Colts. However, when he faced good teams with diverse blitzing schemes, he struggled. (He had one complete pass after the first quarter versus the Chiefs in a game the Raiders won.)
Let’s not rush to judgment on any quarterbacks this summer, good or bad. We know Caleb Williams of the Bears and Bo Nix of the Broncos are locks to start, whether they light the league on fire or not. Both teams are fully committed to starting over with their rookies, understanding there will be growing pains. The preseason will be scripted for success for both players, as the defenses they face will not be elaborate or create new ways to blitz the pocket. The game will be slow and easy for the offense to handle, as the real work will occur during the scrimmages, which we cannot view.
As for other positions, hold back on the rookie class. They might look good playing in a game against certain players (remember, the level of competition is the biggest variable when watching the games). Once the season begins, the talent on the field and the speed of the game significantly increases.
For example, Jalen Carter of the Eagles looked like a sure-fire defensive rookie of the year, dominating the game in preseason and at the start of the year. By Week 9, he had four sacks, was disruptive inside, and the betting market was all over him to win the award. He ended the year getting two more sacks in the last eight games, looking badly out of shape and out of the running for Defensive Rookie of the Year. The NFL is a long season, and those who make a difference in helping a team might not look good early but could come on when the weather turns cold. Don’t judge, and remember, the key is not to overreact in either direction.
Rule number two is to study the offensive lines of each team, which will be challenging but highly necessary. For example, we watched Hard Knocks for five weeks during our summer recess from football, and we learned how the Giants wanted to place more assets into their offensive line. They felt quarterback Daniel Jones was not well protected and pressured over 30% of the time, and if they could add better linemen along with a great skilled player, Jones would shine. Nice in theory, horrible in reality. Nonetheless, they signed Jermaine Eluemunor as their starting right guard and Jon Runyan as their left guard. (Is signing those two players placing a priority? Call me skeptical.)
During the offseason, they were counting on former first-round pick Evan Neal to play to his expected level as a top 10 pick, which he hadn’t shown during his NFL career. Currently, Neal is still on PUP with no signs of returning. Eluemunor has been moved to right tackle, and the Giants signed Greg Van Roten and guaranteed his salary for the year to play right guard. Now, the right side of the Giants line is the same as the 2023 right side of the Las Vegas line—which wasn’t good enough for the Raiders. To make matters worse, their starting center, John Michael Schmitz, is injured and missing practices with a bad shoulder. With three new starters in the line, does that mean they have improved as were their intention? Not on paper, and this week we will see on the field.
Understanding the offensive line during the preseason is the key to all power ratings. We will watch their second line to determine if anyone could be an adequate starter or how well the group plays together. The Rams are missing three starters in their line. All of them are “iffy” for the opener vs. Detroit, so we must pay close attention to their line play this summer.
Initially, the Rams appeared to be a nice play, getting 3.5 points in their opening game on the road. However, with the uncertainty of their starters in the line, my power ranking of the Rams might dip. Remember, last summer, from day one, it was obvious the Panthers line was a disaster. And it never changed. You can learn a great deal from watching the lines in the preseason and ranking them accordingly.
My final and probably most important element to evaluate in the upcoming games lies with the coaching changes, and not always at the head coach level. Yes, the head coach change is important, especially when the head coach’s expertise lies in an area of weakness of the team he inherited. Mike Macdonald takes over a statistically bad Seattle defense with good players who couldn’t stop the run. That will change, and the change will need to show up early this summer. Macdonald’s influence will be displayed starting with the Chargers game, where we know Jim Harbaugh’s team will play to win and want to run the ball. That will allow us to examine the improvement (if any) in the Seattle defense.
The assistant change is as important. Will Kellen Moore run the ball with Philadelphia? Jalen Hurts claimed the offense is 95% from Moore, which means more throws than runs. How Moore adjusts to the Eagles personnel will be fun to watch, and don’t forget, for all the Moore lovers out there (and there are plenty), Dak Prescott had one of his best years with Mike McCarthy’s offense, not Moore’s. There are so many coordinator questions to answer this summer. From the first game, you will be able to understand the level of coaching detail to believe their side of the ball will improve.
If we base our power rankings on last year, we are prone to misvaluation. We must examine these three areas and blend in last year to set the right number for Week 1 and September. It’s NFL preseason for both the teams and us handicappers.
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