Massive Surges/Skids Wreaking Havoc on MLB Bullpen Systems
For this week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update, I will focus on the massive volatility in performance levels of certain teams’ bullpens. Unlike any season in recent memory, we are seeing massive swings in my bullpen power ratings in short periods of time. Elite teams have floundered for extended periods of time, and vice versa. Teams that were once struggling to get outs from their relief staffs are now dominating.
This craziness has led to an overall down season for my “easiest” bullpen system. While some of the more defined systems have continued to fare well, overall, bullpen superiority, or the perception of it, if you will, hasn’t been nearly as important in 2024. With that said, let’s look at some examples of teams that have seen their bullpen power ratings climb or drop radically in recent weeks. Following that, I’ll provide you with my normal MLB Bullpen Systems records and stats updates.
Teams whose bullpens have been massively better in recent weeks
Atlanta Braves
Since the middle of June, I have moved the Braves’ bullpen power rating from 7 to a league-best 34. The talent has been there throughout the whole season, but the performance level has picked up dramatically. Since June 15th, Atlanta’s bullpen boasts an ERA of 2.26, a WHIP of 1.01, and 10.61 strikeouts per 9 innings. All three figures would be league-best numbers if accumulated over the entire season. The surge has helped the Braves maintain their playoff position, as the offense has only put up 3.93 RPG during that stretch.
Chicago Cubs
For the Cubs bullpen, something started clicking around June 26th. After back-to-back days of unraveling at San Francisco, the group rebounded to close out a win in the final game of that series and has been scintillating since. This coming despite trading a key reliever away in Mark Leiter, Jr. Since 6/26, the Cubs pen has gone 114 innings and has posted a WHIP of 1.04 and ERA of 1.58. The team is 18-15 since and showing signs of life.
Los Angeles Angels
Yes, I know, the Angles have been an incredibly underachieving disappointment once again in 2024, and the injury saga of CF Mike Trout seems to be stuck on repeat. However, one area in which the franchise can look positively at this point has been the performance of its bullpen, particularly over the last month and a half or so. They were very impressive this past weekend in a series win over the red-hot Mets. Since mid-June, I have moved the Angels’ bullpen power rating 32 points in a positive direction. Since a brutal 13-runs allowed outing on June 16th, LA’s relief staff has only had what could be considered two or three off nights. The stats during this surge: 2.52 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13 saves, 21-20 team won-lost record.
New York Mets
There’s been no denying all season long that the Mets have big-arm talent in their bullpen; it only took till recently for that group to perform as expected. The recent surge started just before the all-star break, and I’ve moved New York’s bullpen up 18 points in the process. On July 9th, the bullpen had a rough outing but still hung on for a 6-5 win over Washington. That cliffhanger has started a 14-8 run for the team, and since that near-miss, the team’s bullpen boasts a 3.1 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and has struck out 12.01 hitters per nine innings. That last stat has helped New York maintain its year-long statistical lead in that key power rating generating stat category.
Tampa Bay Rays
It has taken the Rays just two weeks to move up 22 points on my bullpen power rating scale. This is a massive jump and well-deserved. Culminating with an 8+ inning sparking outing on Sunday in Houston, the Tampa Bay bullpen has compiled these stats in its last 11 games: 49 innings pitched, 1.29 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, three saves, none blown. A lot of experts thought this team packed it in at the trade deadline, but they are 7-4 in these last 11 games.
Teams whose bullpens have been terribly worse in recent weeks
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore is still locked in a tie with the Yankees atop the AL East Division, but it hasn’t been because of bullpen performance. It has been despite it. Over the last seven weeks, I have dropped the O’s bullpen by 19 power ratings points. The stats are all you need to see to understand why. Since June 21st, the Baltimore bullpen has gone 136-1/3 innings and allowed an ERA of 5.48. Fortunately, the offense has scored six runs or more 16 times since then, enabling the team to still maintain an 18-21 record in that span.
Boston Red Sox
The Boston bullpen swoon has been even more dramatic and even quicker than that of the Orioles. For the Red Sox, the misery began on June 28th in a 9-2 loss to the Padres. The relief corps allowed four runs that day in 6+ innings of work and haven’t stabilized since. In 33 appearances since that date, Boston’s bullpen has allowed at least one run in 25 games for an overall ERA of 5.60, a WHIP of 1.52, Only an offense that has scored 5.7 RPG in those contests has been enough to avoid a total meltdown.
Chicago White Sox
Admittedly, there was a time earlier in the season in which I actually uttered the words, “Well, at least the White Sox bullpen is reasonably good.” Having lost 20 straight games now, nothing has been good, and the bullpen has totally imploded. Over the last five weeks, I have dropped Chicago’s bullpen power rating by 32 points to where it is now the league’s worst. Here are the stats since July 4th: 107-2/3 innings, 7.11 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and 6 blown saves. And to think those could have been at least six wins had this group been performing as it did prior to Independence Day.
Detroit Tigers
Detroit’s slow and steady bullpen implosion began on June 15th in a somewhat peculiar fashion as the team beat the Astros that day 13-5 on the road. However, all five runs were allowed by the relief pitchers in that game and the Tigers are 19-24 since that day after accumulating an ERA of 4.54. They’ve been taxed to the tune of 4.3 innings per game during that stretch. That isn’t a horrible ERA to post, but it is bad when compared to prior. Fatigue is clearly setting in.
Washington Nationals
For the Nats, the bullpen trouble began on June 22nd in an 8-7 loss at Colorado in which the Rockies walked it off. The relief numbers since, 136-1/3 innings, ERA of 5.61, WHIP of 1.51 and 5 blown saves. The biggest problem for Washington is that the offense has actually scored well (5.1 RPG) in a 14-23 skid since, meaning the pitching, and the bullpen in particular have been the primary source of the problems.
For those of you perhaps new to the MLB Bullpen Systems, they derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or in the least, minimize losses. It has done so in every year I have shared the logic. This season has been a somewhat volatile one for the “easiest” angle, and although we still remain in negative territory for this simplest of the systems, I have preached that diligent patience is key to letting this methodology bloom.
This past summer, some VSiN readers were perhaps looking for a shortcut and asked what would take time out of the process. That led to THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. You will see that by simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units in 2023. That is a nice 2.2% return for a very simple yet fundamentally sound methodology. The ROI for this year has fallen to a season-low -of 4.9% after a prolonged period of less-than-satisfactory results. Looking at the “easiest way” results since my last bullpen update by day:
Monday 7/29: 4-8, -5.09 units
Tuesday 7/30: 8-5, +2.3 units
Wednesday 7/31: 6-5, +0.78 units
Thursday 8/1: 3-1, +1.75 units
Friday 8/2: 7-7, -1.56 units
Saturday 8/3: 5.7, -2.89 units
Sunday 8/4: 5-7, -3.51 units
Overall, the last seven days produced a record of 38-40 for -8.22 units, leaving us at –74.3 units for the season. VSiN readers who have followed me for years know that this is well below the usual level of return. In fact, at this point, I will still be tracking this angle for my own personal records if that helps, but I wouldn’t endorse playing this “easiest” angle anymore for all games. It just isn’t clicking this season as I’ve grown used to. Even so, when you consider that the average MLB bettor playing every game for the season would be approximately -159 units down with average performance, being -74.3 units down for this system is still advantageous for such a simplistic system betting every game.
Narrowing down the plays and using greater discernment in your baseball wagering can provide an even bigger edge. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I personally am still playing these on a daily basis, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
Remember, to full implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
I do narrow the plays with what I believe are more sharpened systems employing some various situations. Here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday 8/4:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season long return on investment. As of 8/4 in the 2024 regular season, they are 806-711 for -74.3 units. This is well below usual standards after several losing weeks in a row and as such, I will be removing it from the Analytics Reports from here on out, but I will continue to track the results for my own records.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/5, the record of this angle is again positive at 78-29 for +3.32 units.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 80-46 for -23.17 units and an ROI of -18.4%.
Fading overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 49-29 since opening day 2024 and has lost -13.36 units, an ROI of -17.1%. While still solid results, this angle has cooled of late.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 239-285 record, for -10.67 units (ROI -2.0%). This is performing below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 213-223 record, for +10.07 units (ROI 2.3%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
Worse bullpens struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 136-159 for -15.71 units. The three-game teams are 66-70 for -0.03 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 142-134 for -23.74 units (-8.6% ROI) through Sunday 8/4. We have seen far more lengthy losing streaks this season as compared to winning streaks, and I believe that is greatly affecting this system.
Better bullpen teams thwarted potentially lengthy losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 135 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/4 and these teams are 76-59 for +10.59 units. This angle was stuck in neutral for most of the early part of the season but has enjoyed a 31-15, +15.12-unit performance over the last seven weeks or so.
These simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that were accumulated in games through Sunday 8/4:
Key MLB Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 8/4)
Top 5 MLB Bullpen ERA’s
1. CLEVELAND: 2.6
2. ATLANTA: 2.95
3. MILWAUKEE: 3.29
4. NY YANKEES: 3.49
5. LA DODGERS: 3.57
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen ERAs
30. COLORADO: 5.63
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 5.04
28. TORONTO: 5.02
27. TEXAS: 4.46
26. WASHINGTON: 4.41
Top 5 MLB Bullpen WHIPs
1. CLEVELAND: 1.06
2. ATLANTA: 1.16
3. LA DODGERS: 1.18
4. SEATTLE: 1.18
5. BALTIMORE: 1.19
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.58
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.52
28. TORONTO: 1.39
27. ARIZONA: 1.38
26. KANSAS CITY: 1.38
Top 5 MLB Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. NY METS: 10.53
2. PHILADELPHIA: 10.18
3. CLEVELAND: 9.58
4. SEATTLE: 9.55
5. MINNESOTA: 9.47
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. KANSAS CITY: 7.4
29. COLORADO: 7.49
28. ARIZONA: 7.67
27. TORONTO: 7.84
26. ST. LOUIS: 8.03
Top 5 MLB Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. TAMPA BAY: 0.64
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 0.79
3. LA ANGELS: 0.85
4. ST. LOUIS: 0.92
5. KANSAS CITY: 0.97
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. WASHINGTON: 2.1
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.96
28. TORONTO: 1.86
27. ARIZONA: 1.64
26. HOUSTON: 1.64
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. Since my last update, I’ve also incorporated adjustments made due to trade deadline departures and acquisitions. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM MLB Bullpen Power Ratings since 7/29:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. NY YANKEES: +8 points
T-2. TAMPA BAY: +7}
T-2. NY METS: +7
T-4. SAN DIEGO: +6
T-4. SAN FRANCISCO: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -20 points
2. WASHINGTON: -15
3. DETROIT: -9
4. CLEVELAND: -8
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 8/5)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. ATLANTA: 34
2. CLEVELAND: 27
3. HOUSTON: 21
4. TAMPA BAY: 20
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 19
6. MILWAUKEE: 17
7. LA DODGERS: 16
8. MIAMI: 14
9. OAKLAND: 12
10. NY YANKEES: 11
11. LA ANGELS: 11
12. NY METS: 10
13. SAN DIEGO: 6
14. SAN FRANCISCO: 6
15. PHILADELPHIA: 5
16. ST. LOUIS: 4
17. CINCINNATI: 4
18. SEATTLE: 3
19. MINNESOTA: 2
20. TEXAS: 0
21. BALTIMORE: -2
22. ARIZONA: -4
23. PITTSBURGH: -4
24. KANSAS CITY: -5
25. BOSTON: -14
26. TORONTO: -15
27. WASHINGTON: -16
28. DETROIT: -19
29. COLORADO: -31
30. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -34
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there is only one team on 3+ game winning streak (MIN) and one team on a 3+ game losing skids (CWS).
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