Bryson DeChambeau is the -110 favorite heading into Sunday’s final round of the U.S. Open at Pinehurst.
DeChambeau shot a 3-under 67 to build a three-shot lead over Rory McIlroy (+320), Patrick Cantlay (+750) and Matthieu Pavon (+1800), who were all at -4 for the tournament.
VSiN’s golf experts offered their third-round observations and final-round predictions.
U.S. Open fourth-round tee times
Matt Youmans
A three-stroke lead after three rounds, which is what Bryson DeChambeau holds, is not as comfortable as it might seem. Things can change in a matter of a few minutes, especially on a golf course as dangerous as Pinehurst. DeChambeau shot 67-69-67 in the first three rounds, but the leader typically gets conservative on Sunday. It would not surprise me if Bryson closes with an even-par 70 or 71. My pre-tournament bet on DeChambeau at 21-1 odds does allow some room to hedge, but you never want to hedge too much and throw away money. You also can get burned if a surprise player comes from behind.
I’m not counting out Cantlay or Pavon, and both could be a problem, but it’s easy to sense a Bryson-Rory duel on Sunday’s back nine. McIlroy has gone 10 years without a major win and he’s hungry. DeChambeau came up one shot short in the PGA last month, when I had him at 28-1. I’ll make a small hedge Saturday night on McIlroy and hope he finishes second to DeChambeau.
Matt Brown
Bryson DeChambeau was excellent in Round 3, gaining across the board en route to a 3-stroke lead heading into Sunday.
Three players will try to come from 3 back, and two of those players are proven crushers in Rory McIllroy and Patrick Cantlay. Both had their moments on Saturday and should not be counted out in the final round.
We talked about Ludvig riding on the razor’s edge with his poor around-the-green play and it finally got him on Saturday. He lost over 3 strokes ARG and now finds himself too far back to take down his first major.
My only real sweat, Tony Finau, fell victim to the 13th hole…made triple bogey …and effectively ended his shot at the title.
No adds for me. I’ll keep an eye on Matsuyama, who fought through a rough front nine to finish even for the day, and T5 overall. I have a bunch of placement market and H2H sweats for Sunday and that will be good enough for me.
Wes Reynolds
Going into Sunday’s final round of the U.S. Open, we have an odds-on favorite at -110 as Bryson DeChambeau, the 2020 U.S. Open Champion at Winged Foot, shot 3-under 67 on Saturday to earn a three-stroke lead. While his irons were not a sharp as the first two days, DeChambeau gained over three strokes with the putter on Saturday.
DeChambeau will be paired in the final group with Frenchman Matthieu Pavon (18/1), who held it together for a 1-under par round of 69 and is at 4-under.
Also, at 4-under are Rory McIlroy (+320) and Patrick Cantlay (+750), who will be paired together in the penultimate group on Sunday. Many fans will remember their disagreement, along with Cantlay’s caddie Joe LaCava, at last year’s Ryder Cup in Rome. Last November in an interview with the Irish Independent, McIlroy explained “my relationship with Cantlay is average at best. We don’t have a lot in common and the see the world quite differently.” Later in the same interview, Rory referred to Cantlay as word that starts with the letter D and rhymes with nick.
The disagreements continued when both were player-directors on the PGA TOUR Board of Directors. Now both will have to make up a three-shot deficit to chase down DeChambeau as McIlroy goes for his second U.S. Open (2011 – Congressional) and first major championship in nearly ten years, while Cantlay tries to remove himself from the top of the “best player never to win a major” list like his best pal Xander Schauffele did last month at the PGA Championship. McIlroy also finished runner-up in last year’s U.S. Open to Wyndham Clark at the Los Angeles Country Club.
Ludvig Åberg (16/1) ranked 71st out of 74 players for Strokes Gained: Around The Green (-3.07) and a costly triple bogey 7 on the 13th dropped him down the board. Aside from the poor performance Scrambling (4-for-11), Åberg held the overnight lead in a major for the first time (just his third major championship in his career) and clearly felt a bit of pressure with the Pinehurst patrons solidly behind DeChambeau. The Swede will be paired with Hideki Matsuyama (18/1), who is also at 2-under par.
Justin Ray, head of content at The Twenty First Group and also of The Athletic, is an invaluable resource for historical golf statistics. He points out that the line of demarcation for a real chance to win this U.S. Open is four shots.
So, essentially this is a four-man tournament tomorrow with DeChambeau, McIlroy, Cantlay, and Pavon. With a pre-tournament wager on McIlroy at 13/1, I am personally pulling for him, but it would be surprising if DeChambeau does not close this out.
Kelley Bydlon
An impressive third round from Bryson DeChambeau has him looking good with a three-shot lead heading into Sunday’s final round. He’ll have some big time chasers though with Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, and Mathieu Pavon all at -4.
I’ll be pulling hard for Hideki Matsuyama to make some magic Sunday and get my 50-1 outright home, but that’s looking unlikely. I’m happy I added DeChambeau after the second round, but even at around -110, I don’t think he’s a bad play heading into Sunday. While this course has been brutal for most of the field, DeChambeau has managed to shoot in the 60s each round so far.
I have enough riding on Xander Schauffele top 10 already, but I think that’s another nice play at around +110 right now if you’re not already involved.
Any tournament matchups I like, I will add at vsin.com.
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