Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 22, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, GOLDEN STATE, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON, LA CLIPPERS
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, SAN ANTONIO, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, CLEVELAND, GOLDEN STATE, LA LAKERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): MEMPHIS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): MEMPHIS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY ML, BOSTON ML, LA CLIPPERS ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-MIA, MEM-SAS, LAC-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in NOP-MIA, PLAY OVER in CLE-MIN, PLAY UNDER in MEM-SAS, PLAY UNDER IN LAC-POR
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 174-116 SU & 170-112 ATS (60.3%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
3/22: LA LAKERS vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-7 vs PHI)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 125-86 SU but 92-117-1 ATS (44%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/22: Fade SAN ANTONIO vs. Memphis
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (-6 vs MEM)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 55-28 SU and 52-29-2 ATS (64.2%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
3/22: LA LAKERS vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-7 vs PHI)
* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 48-23 SU and 39-31-1 ATS (55.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/22: MIAMI vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-3 vs NOP)
* Over the total was 100-68 (59.5%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
3/22: Over the total in LA LAKERS-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)
* Over the total was 74-54 (57.8%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
3/22: Over the total in MIAMI-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 209.5)
* Over the total was 48-35 (57.8%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/22: Over the total in LA LAKERS-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is 43-18 SU and 35-23 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
3/22: GOLDEN STATE vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-5 vs IND)
* MEMPHIS is 20-7 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
3/22: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 217)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 119-35 SU and 98-56 ATS (63.6%) run.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs CLE)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 149-30 SU but just 74-102-3 ATS (42%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 at TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-61 (56.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 146-118 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 188-139 (57.5%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in OKC-TOR (o/u at 231.5), PLAY OVER in BOS-DET (o/u at 223.5), PLAY OVER in LAC-POR (o/u at 216.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 189-115 SU but 136-164-4 ATS (45.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-5 vs IND), FADE LA LAKERS (-7 vs PHI)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 225-125 SU but just 146-193-11 ATS (43.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-14 at DET)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 238-187 SU but 183-231-11 ATS (44.2%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 33-60 ATS.
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-7 vs PHI)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 148-122 SU and 155-108-7 ATS (58.9%) run.
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-5 vs IND)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 26-52 SU but 42-36 ATS (53.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (+14 vs BOS)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 50-14 SU and 40-22-2 ATS (64.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-14 at DET)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 175-219 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 23-100 SU and 51-69-3 ATS (42.5%).
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-14 at DET), FADE TORONTO (+15.5 vs OKC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +7.5 (+2.6), 2. NEW ORLEANS +3 (+2.1), 3. TORONTO +15.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -7 (+0.8), 2. BOSTON -14 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +7.5 (+2.8), 2. MEMPHIS +6 (+1.4), 3. PORTLAND +13.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+1.7) and BOSTON -14 (+1.7), 3. LA LAKERS -7 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-SAS OVER 217 (+0.9), 2. CLE-MIN OVER 206.5 (+0.8), 3. IND-GSW OVER 240 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-DET UNDER 223.5 (-1.8), 2. PHI-LAL UNDER 225 (-1.1), 3. OKC-TOR UNDER 231.5 (-0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +7.5 (+4.4), 2. TORONTO +15.5 (+3.2), 3. MEMPHIS +6 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -7 (+0.3), 2. MIAMI -3 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-MIN OVER 206.5 (+4.0), 2. LAC-POR OVER 216.5 (+2.2), 3. BOS-DET OVER 223.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-GSW UNDER 240 (-2.3), 2. MEM-SAS UNDER 217 (-1.4), 3. PHI-LAL UNDER 225 (-1.3)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(543) BOSTON at (544) DETROIT
* Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the BOS-DET series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(547) CLEVELAND at (548) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 6-2 ATS in the last eight versus Cleveland
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(551) INDIANA at (552) GOLDEN STATE
* INDIANA is on a 4-0 ATS run at Golden State
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS
(553) LA CLIPPERS at (554) PORTLAND
* LA CLIPPERS have won the last three ATS at Portland
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
(549) MEMPHIS at (550) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO is on a 6-1 ATS run versus Memphis
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS
(545) NEW ORLEANS at (546) MIAMI
* MIAMI is on a 14-3 ATS surge versus New Orleans
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
(541) OKLAHOMA CITY at (542) TORONTO
* The last five games of the OKC-TOR series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(555) PHILADELPHIA at (556) LA LAKERS
* Home teams are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the PHI-LAL series
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
The post VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report – March 22 appeared first on VSiN.
