Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, February 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, NEW ORLEANS, DETROIT, MIAMI
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, OKLAHOMA CITY, MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS, ATLANTA, MIAMI
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, a R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON ML, CHICAGO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS ML, UTAH ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE ML, BOSTON ML, MINNESOTA ML, MILWAUKEE ML, CHICAGO ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-WSH, DAL-CLE, UTA-ATL, CHA-MIL, DET-CHI, MIA-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a “super” majority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): GSW-WSH, UTA-ATL, DET-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BKN-ORL, PLAY OVER in NOP-NYK, PLAY UNDER in MIA-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in GSW-WSH
Schedule situations crucial for NBA handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 117-84 SU but 85-114-1 ATS (42.7%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/27: Fade MINNESOTA vs. San Antonio
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-13 vs SAS)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 65-41 SU but 44-61-1 ATS (41.9%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/27: Fade MINNESOTA vs. San Antonio
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-13 vs SAS)
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 60-25 SU and 51-31-3 ATS (62.2%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
2/27: PORTLAND vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+7 vs MIA)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 35-21 SU but 22-33-1 ATS (40%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last three seasons.
2/27: Fade MINNESOTA vs. San Antonio
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-13 vs SAS)
* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 43-20 SU and 35-27-1 ATS (56.5%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
2/27: ORLANDO vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-9 vs BKN)
* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 28-23 SU and 28-23 ATS (54.9%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
2/27: NEW YORK vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (+3 vs NOP)
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 30-12 SU and 29-13 ATS (69%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
2/27: PORTLAND vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+7 vs MIA)
* Over the total was 72-48 (60%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
2/27: Over the total in ORLANDO-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 213.5)
* Over the total was 64-50 (56.1%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/27: Over the total in ORLANDO-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 213.5)
* Over the total was 37-26 (58.7%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
2/27: Over the total in CHICAGO-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)
Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season
There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what has been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.
ATLANTA is 14-19 SU and 9-24 ATS (27.3%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
The Hawks haven’t done a lot of things well this season, but one particular area in which they have struggled schedule-wise has been in the One Day Rest scenario. Unfortunately, this is the most common scheduling situation for the league’s teams, and teams that underperform here are generally losing teams for bettors to follow.
2/27 vs. Utah
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-1 vs UTA)
BOSTON is 6-3 SU but 0-8-1 ATS (0%) at home this season versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 100 or higher.
This trend is of obvious concern to the Celtics in their quest to win an NBA title this season, as the teams with 100+ power ratings are generally going to be the ones they will be playing in the postseason. Boston has been very good at home in general so far, but having struggled there against the other league’s best is something they will have to change. The remaining games against this current set of teams includes:
2/27 vs. Philadelphia
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-12 vs PHI)
MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 20-15 SU but 12-23 ATS (34.3%).
After acquiring Damian Lillard in the offseason, much was expected of the Bucks in ’23-24. However, having already jettisoned their head coach, it’s safe to say that Milwaukee has been one of the biggest underachievers in the NBA. Still, there is a lot of season left to turn things around. The first order of business will be improving in the league’s most popular scheduling scenario:
2/27 vs. Charlotte
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-14 vs CHA)
ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 24-8 SU and 24-8 ATS (75%).
The Magic are a young team so it would make sense that they would thrive in a situation of routine. The One Day Rest scenario is the most frequent scheduling situation on any team’s schedule, so this is an ideal trend for a team to have. These are the rest of the games this season in which bettors will be able to take advantage:
2/27 vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-9 vs BKN)
WASHINGTON is 18-10 ATS (64.3%) as a road underdog this season but 9-18 ATS (33.3%) as a home underdog.
This is a strange performance dichotomy, and it shows that Washington plays better on the road than it does at home. These trends will apply in a lot of games the rest of the way
2/27 vs. Golden State
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+11 vs GSW)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* MIAMI is 25-20 SU & 28-15 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
2/27: MIAMI at Portland
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-7 at POR)
* SAN ANTONIO was 4-24 SU and 10-18 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario last season
2/27: Fade SAN ANTONIO at Minnesota
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+13 at MIN)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 141-29 SU but just 69-99-2 ATS (41.1%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-11 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 75-58 (56.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 143-112 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 175-130 (57.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in GSW-WSH (o/u at 243.5), PLAY UNDER in PHI-BOS (o/u at 231.5), PLAY OVER in SAS-MIN (o/u at 225.5), PLAY OVER in CHA-MIL (o/u at 220.5), PLAY UNDER in DET-CHI (o/u at 225), PLAY OVER in HOU-OKC (o/u at 234)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 107-76 SU and 107-73-3 ATS (59.4%) since ‘21.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-13 vs SAS), PLAY CHARLOTTE (+14 at MIL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 25-49 SU but 41-33 ATS (55.4%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY PORTLAND (+7 vs MIA)
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 80-15 SU but 38-55-3 ATS (40.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-12 vs PHI), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs HOU)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 47-12 SU and 37-20-2 ATS (64.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (*only if they become a 7.5 pt favorite at POR (-7 currently)*)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (150-168 ATS, 47.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (205-190 ATS, 51.9%) over the L3 seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING PORTLAND (+7 vs MIA), CONSIDER PLAYING WASHINGTON (+11 vs GSW), FADE DETROIT (+11 at CHI), CONSIDER PLAYING SAN ANTONIO (+13 at MIN)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 57-55 SU and 65-45-3 ATS (59.1%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+11 vs GSW)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 170-211 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 22-97 SU and 49-67-3 ATS (42.2%).
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-12 vs PHI), FADE PORTLAND (+7 vs. MIA), FADE WASHINGTON (+11 vs. GSW)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 35-55 ATS (38.9%) in the next game, including 16-29 ATS (35.5%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-12 vs PHI)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +9 (+2.2), 2. WASHINGTON +10.5 (+1.0), 3. UTAH +1 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -14 (+2.4), 2. BOSTON -12 (+1.6), 3. CHICAGO -11 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +9 (+2.4), 2. DALLAS +5 (+0.5), 3. WASHINGTON +10.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -14 (+2.9), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+1.4), 3. MINNESOTA -13 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-BOS OVER 231.5 (+2.9), 2. UTA-ATL OVER 236 (+2.6), 3. DET-CHI OVER 225 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-MIN UNDER 225.5 (-1.5), 2. NOP-NYK UNDER 218.5 (-1.3), 3. DAL-CLE UNDER 233.5 (-1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +7 (+5.4), 2. BROOKLYN +9 (+2.7), 3. WASHINGTON +10.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -14 (+5.3), 2. ATLANTA -1 (+2.1), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-BOS OVER 231.5 (+5.6), 2. UTA-ATL OVER 236 (+5.2), 3. DET-CHI OVER 225 (+3.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-NYK UNDER 218.5 (-1.5), 2. SAS-MIN UNDER 225.5 (-1.0), 3. DAL-CLE UNDER 233.5 (-0.7)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) BROOKLYN at (502) ORLANDO
* Home teams have swept the last four ATS in the BRK-ORL series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
(515) CHARLOTTE at (516) MILWAUKEE
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the CHA-MIL series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(505) DALLAS at (506) CLEVELAND
* DALLAS is on a 5-0 ATS streak at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
(517) DETROIT at (518) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO has won the last seven ATS hosting Detroit
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(503) GOLDEN STATE at (504) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 10-4 in GSW-WAS series since 2017
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(519) HOUSTON at (520) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Home teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the HOU-OKC series
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
(521) MIAMI at (522) PORTLAND
* Favorites are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the MIA-POR series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
(511) NEW ORLEANS at (512) NEW YORK
* Home teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the NOP-NYK series
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
(507) PHILADELPHIA at (508) BOSTON
* Road teams are 8-4 ATS in the last 12 games of PHI-BOS rivalry
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(509) SAN ANTONIO at (510) MINNESOTA
* SAN ANTONIO is 6-2 ATS in the last eight vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS
(513) UTAH at (514) ATLANTA
* UTAH has won the last three ATS at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
The post VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report – February 27 appeared first on VSiN.
