Today a new month begins with a smaller than usual 11-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
6:45 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-175, 10)
The Phillies (17-13) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 7-6 as -195 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-2 as -255 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Nationals (13-18) hand the ball to righty Brad Lord (0-3, 4.67 ERA) and the Phillies counter with fellow righty Taijuan Walker (1-2, 2.78 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -170 home favorite and Washington a +150 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the pricey chalk and have laid the wood with the Phillies to complete the sweep, steaming Philadelphia up from -170 to -175, with some shops reaching as high as -185 earlier today.
At Circa, the Phillies are receiving 89% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” one-way bet split and further evidence of the larger wiseguy wagers backing Philadelphia out in Vegas.
Home favorites, like the Phillies here, are 201-103 (66%) with a 9% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 82-32 (71%) with a 16% ROI. Favorites who made the postseason the previous year are 149-81 (65%) with a 5% ROI. Home favorites -150 or more are 96-36 (73%) with a 9% ROI.
Philadelphia is 11-4 at home this season. Washington is 4-11 on the road. The Phillies are 4-1 against the Nationals.
Lord has a 5.23 ERA on the road in four starts. The Phillies are hitting .276 at home, 4th best in MLB. The Nationals are hitting .214 on the road, ranking 24th.
7:07 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-110, 8.5) at Toronto Blue Jays
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Red Sox (17-15) won the opener 10-2, cruising as -140 road favorites. Then the Blue Jays (14-16) bounced back with a 7-6 come-from-behind win in extra innings yesterday, cashing as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s rematch, the Red Sox send out righty Tanner Houck (0-2, 7.58 ERA) and the Blue Jays go with fellow righty Jose Berrios (1-1, 4.24 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -110 home favorite and Boston a +100 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Red Sox to earn a victory and take the series, pushing Boston from a +100 road dog to a -110 road favorite. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Red Sox.
At Circa, Boston is taking in only 27% of moneyline bets but a whopping 84% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in their favor out in Vegas.
Favorites with line movement in their direction, like the Red Sox here, are 198-107 (65%) with a 7% ROI this season. Favorites off a loss are 120-67 (64%) with an 8% ROI.
The Red Sox have a big edge at the plate, hitting .251 with 40 homers and 164 runs scored compared to the Blue Jays only hitting .237 with 19 homers and 104 runs scored.
Boston is also much better against righties, hitting .251 (10th) compared to .231 (24th) for Toronto.
9:38 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-130, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
This is the opening game of a four-game series.
The Tigers (19-12) just dropped two of three against the Astros but avoided the sweep with a 7-4 win in yesterday’s series finale, cashing as +100 road dogs. On the other hand, the Angels (12-17) just got swept in a two-game series against the Mariners, falling 9-3 yesterday as +120 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Tigers trot out righty Casey Mize (4-1, 2.12 ERA) and the Angels rebuttal with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-4, 4.31 ERA).
This line opened as low as a -110 pick’em, with some shops opening the Tigers a slight -120 road favorite and the Angels a +105 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Tigers at a cheap chalk price, steaming Detroit up to a -130 road favorite.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are taking in over 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in their favor.
Favorites who made the postseason the previous year, like the Tigers here, are 149-81 (65%) with a 5% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 198-107 (65%) with a 7% ROI. Detroit also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Tigers have the better bats, hitting .245 with 145 runs scored compared to the Angels only hitting .214 with 106 runs scored.
Detroit has won four of Mize’s five starts and he has allowed one earned run or less in four of those five starts. Meanwhile, the Angels have lost five of Kikuchi’s six starts.
The Tigers have the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.74 (4th best) compared to 5.49 for the Angels (2nd worst).
The Angels are only hitting .217 at home, 2nd worst in MLB. The Tigers are hitting .250 against lefties, 10th best in MLB.
The post Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Thursday May 1st appeared first on VSiN.
