The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, May 1st. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 1st
NBA Best Bets Today – May 1
Game 6: New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 pm ET
The Pistons were able to extend this series with a win at Madison Square Garden, and they’ll now have a shot at tying it up at Little Caesars Arena. Honestly, it feels like Detroit deserves a Game 7. The Pistons could be winning this series if not for some poor lapses in focus, and a missed foul call on a Tim Hardaway Jr. 3-point attempt to end Game 4. Now, Detroit finds itself with its back against the wall for a second straight game, but it does so after what feels like a real shift in the series.
At this point, it’s just clear that the Knicks don’t have any real plans to go to more pick-and-roll actions with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, taking advantage of Towns’ ability to pop for 3s and also attacking Jalen Duren’s shaky footwork when defending the perimeter. New York also doesn’t appear to be interested in going to Towns in the post, even when he has smaller defenders on him. So, the Knicks are really letting the Pistons off the hook on the defensive end of the floor, and they’re just putting everything on the shoulders of a banged-up Brunson. That’s not the right strategy against a Detroit team that was 10th in the NBA in defensive rating (112.5) during the regular season.
Perhaps more concerning is that the Knicks have had a lot of trouble defending a mediocre Pistons offense. Cade Cunningham is going to get his in this series. Everybody knew that coming in. But the team is picking New York apart with Cunningham-Duren pick-and-rolls, with the big man doing great work as a short-roll passer. The Pistons carved the Knicks up running that action, with Ausar Thompson cutting baseline and taking advantage of New York’s laziness off the ball. It’ll be interesting to see if that continues in Game 6. It should be a focal point for the Knicks heading into the game, but I’m not sure they have the personnel to stop it. Also, if they commit too much to stopping that, Detroit’s spot-up shooters could make New York pay. And we could also see some more strong play out of Tobias Harris, who has looked like the best second option on the court for most of this series.
Realistically, the Knicks have the talent to blow this Pistons team out of the water, but the schemes haven’t been right on either end of the floor. And that’s not all that different from what we saw during the regular season, when New York consistently struggled against good competition.
With all of that in mind, I’m taking the Pistons to win this game at home. I just trust JB Bickerstaff more than I trust Tom Thibodeau, which is wild considering the former was fired for his lack of postseason coaching chops in Cleveland. And considering all of the above, I wouldn’t mind a play on Detroit to win the series. The Pistons have been fearless playing in New York thus far.
Pick: Pistons ML (-125 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 1
Game 6: Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:00 pm ET
Kris Dunn went 3 for 4 from 3 in Game 5, taking advantage of the Nuggets completely ignoring him in the corners. I’m not sure we’re going to see Dunn knock down another three 3s in Game 6, but I am putting a little something on the guard to make two. Dunn has made at least two 3s in three of the five games in this series, and he has taken 4.6 triples per game in the five games. Well, if Dunn is going to flirt with five attempts in this game, I’ll take my chances at these odds. Dunn shot 36.4% from 3 at the Intuit Dome during the regular season, and he might be getting cleaner looks in the playoffs than he did during the year. That said, with Dunn coming into this game with some confidence, I’m willing to take a shot on him here. Not only is Dunn averaging 1.8 3s per game in this series, but he also made at least two 3s in five of the final nine games of the regular season.
Bet: Dunn Over 1.5 Made 3s (+158 – 0.5 units)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
________________________________________________
2024-25 NBA Record: 390-390-2 (+5.40 units)
The post NBA Playoffs Predictions Today: Best Bets and Player Props – May 1st appeared first on VSiN.
