Mr. Ed’s Churchill Downs Picks for Thursday, May 1:
TRACKING MR. ED: Jockey Jose Ortiz led all riders on Wednesday’s card with three wins while Joel Rosario had a pair. No single trainer was able to manage more than a single trip to the Winner’s Circle. The average $2 win ticket returned $9.60. Mr. Ed had a pair of scores, including his BEST BET OF THE DAY Honor Marie ($13.60) in the $200K Isaac Murphy Stakes. The win was especially sweet since the 4YO was Mr. Ed’s losing 2024 Kentucky Derby VSiN pick.
THURBY AT CHURCHILL DOWNS: How long have I been begging for a quality race card? Months since the Breeders’ Cup in November. Today, the racing gods answered my plea. Fans and sharpies alike should appreciate 12 challenging races in a six-hour period, featuring three excellent stakes and several competitive allowance contests. From start to finish, it normally takes me three to four hours per program to study, handicap, analyze, and send my picks to VSiN.com. Today, I spent more than five hours, meaning I nearly missed my afternoon nap. Fear not, race fans. Before dozing off, Mr. Ed came up with these picks.
Mr. Ed’s Selections at Churchill Downs for Thursday, 5/1
Race 1 (12:45 p.m. ET/9:45 a.m. PT) — $35K MAIDEN CLAIMING for fillies and mares, 3YOs & up going 6 furlongs
Out of the gate, Mr. Ed likes #8 BIG LEAP (3-1 morning line), an experienced 3YO filly, trained by Jonathan Thomas with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons. She moves to dirt while shortening up and dropping in class. A leap of faith.
CHURCHILL SELECTION: $10 to Win & $5 Daily Doubles. ($20)
Race 2 (1:15 p.m. ET/10:15 a.m. PT) — $120K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT going 4½ furlongs
I like either of two to complete Daily Double: #7 MERCILESANIHILATOR (3-1 morning line), who sports fast works for trainer Larry Rivelli; and #10 MOONLIGHT BEAUTY (5-2) for sprint magician Wesley Ward.
Race 4 (2:17 p.m. ET/11:17 a.m. PT) — $134K ALLOWANCE CLAIMING for fillies and mares 3 YOs & up going 5 furlongs on the turf
Mr. Ed picks a trio to sing. #5 RUE LALA (9-2 morning line), consistent Fair Grounds shipper likes to finish in-the-money; #6 TOP GUN GIRL (5-2) for Wesley Ward with Johnny Valezquez and #12 NIKI NINE DOORS (5-1) for low-key trainer Christopher Davis with top jock Irad Ortiz, Jr.
CHURCHILL SELECTION: $5 Exacta Box. ($30)
Race 5 (2:52 p.m. ET/11:52 a.m. PT) — $83K STARTER ALLOWANCE for 3YOs and up going a mile
I like #5 GAMBLERS TAIL (7-2 morning line), ridden again by popular West Coast jockey Umberto Rispoli, trained by John Ortiz. I’m gambling on the sprinter handling the mile route.
CHURCHILL SELECTION: $10 to Win.
Race 6 (3:27 p.m. ET/12:27 p.m. PT) — $250K KENTUCKY JUVENILE STAKES for 2YOs going 5 furlongs
This is where the Derby and Oaks horses of next year get their start. It’s easy to like #5 PINKY FINGER (8-5 morning line) for owner-trainer Wesley Ward. Fast filly will be ridden by sneaky-good Joel Rosario. MY BEST BET OF THE DAY.
CHURCHILL SELECTION: $20 to Win. ($20)
Race 7 (4:03 p.m. ET/1:03 p.m. PT) — $127K ALLOWANCE for 3YOs & up going a mile on the turf
Mr. Ed’s LONGSHOT OF THE DAY is #2 MEGA MAGIC (20-1) for excellent conditioner Al Stall, Jr., with Brian Hernandez, Jr. riding. Stall is one of my favorite trainers, and he is way overdue for an unexpected win. Stretch out suits. You can call me a fan of Al.
CHURCHILL SELECTION: $5 to Win, Place & Show. ($15)
Races 9-12 (5:13 p.m. ET/2:13 p.m. PT) — $.50 PICK 4
R9: 2,7
R10: 6,9,10
R11: 3,9
R12: 1,7,10,15,16 ($40)
Race 10 (5:47 p.m. ET/2:47 p.m. PT) — $350K OPENING VERSE STAKES for 4YOs & up going a mile on the turf
To wrap up the day, Mr. Ed is counting on these three to fatten his bankroll: #6 MAJOR DUDE (5-2 morning line) for powerful teaming of Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #9 BRILLIANT BERTI (3-1), winner of five of eight; and #10 LAGYNOS (5-1) for all-time winning trainer Steve Asmussen and Flavien Prat.
CHURCHILL SELECTION: $5 Exacta Box. ($30)
TOTAL WAGERS: $165
LADIES (OR OAKS) DAY AT CHURCHILL DOWNS: Friday’s stakes-rich, 13-race card, highlighted by Race 11 G1 $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks for 3YO fillies, begins at 11 a.m. ET/8 a.m. PT. In addition to The Oaks (post time 5:51 p.m. ET), the program features five other stakes and several competitive allowance contests. And, Mr. Ed will return with several exclusive VSiN.com picks.
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