Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of April 26, 2025 and April 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Weekend
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 84-69-3 (54.9%). Here are today’s results:
– DETROIT (-2 vs. NYK)
Two playoff systems, scheduling situation, and recent head-to-head trend all favor DET
– BOSTON (-7 at ORL)
Two DK Betting Splits systems and multiple playoff trends/systems favor BOS
– IND-MIL UNDER 226
DK Betting Splits system #12 and multiple scheduling situations all favor Under
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Game Three Home dogs of 4.5 points or more are just 4-18 SU and 9-12-1 ATS (42.9%) in that same span.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+5.5 vs. CLE)
* Under the total is 9-1-1 in the last 11 of Nuggets-Clippers head-to-head series in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-LAC (o/u at 211.5)
• #4 seeds have been brutal in Games Three and Four, with a 15-35 SU and 17-32-1 ATS (34.7%) record in such games of their first round series since 2013.
System Match (FADE ALL): DENVER (+6.5 at LAC), INDIANA (+4.5 at MIL)
* #2 seeds have also bounced back quickly from losses in the first round, 22-3 SU and 19-6 ATS (76%) in their last 25.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-7 at ORL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this weekend’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Saturday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY, NEW YORK, LA LAKERS, BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA CLIPPERS, NEW YORK, BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% dropoff compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, LA CLIPPERS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML, DETROIT ML, LA LAKERS ML, BOSTON ML, INDIANA ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-MEM, DEN-LAC, HOU-GSW, NYK-DET, LAL-MIN, IND-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – OKC-MEM
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CLE-MIA, BOS-ORL
UNDER – DEN-LAC, HOU-GSW, NYK-DET, LAL-MIN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-GSW
NBA Playoffs Trends/Systems
First Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range
• Big favorites have held a significant edge – Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 96-14 SU and 66-44 ATS (60%).
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15 at MEM)
• Bigger road favorites are also a solid bet – Only 12 of the last 58 road favorites of 4.5 points or more have lost outright, going 46-12 SU and 37-20-1 ATS (64.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-5.5 at MIA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15 at MEM), BOSTON (-7 at ORL)
• First round home favorites of 4 points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as since 2014, they are just 45-37 SU and 35-46-1 ATS (43.2%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs. HOU), DETROIT (-2 vs. NYK), MINNESOTA (-3 vs. LAL)
• The last three NBA first round playoffs saw 70 Unders, 58 Overs, 1 Push– (57%). This year, they are 15-7 to the Under (68.2%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL EIGHT GAMES
• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 78-54-4 (59.1%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 73-66-2 (52.5%).
System Matches (PLAY): OVER – OKC-MEM, IND-MIL
UNDER – CLE-MIA, DEN-LAC, HOU-GSW, NYK-DET, LAL-MIN, BOS-ORL
Last Game Trends
• Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series – Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 84-49 SU and 68-65 ATS (51.1%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 91-72 SU and 78-82-3 ATS (48.8%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower-seeded team in a series, but this 2.3% ATS swing is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): MIAMI (+5.5 vs. CLE), MEMPHIS (+15 vs. OKC), GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs. HOU), DETROIT (-2 vs. NYK)
• Blowout losses carry over – There is a bit of a misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 12 points or more are just 64-123 SU and 77-108-2 ATS (41.6%) in the next contest since 2013. This year, they are 1-5 SU and 4-2 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (+6.5 vs. LAC), GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs. HOU), LA LAKERS (+3 at MIN), INDIANA (+4.5 at MIL)
• Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect – Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 40-17 SU and 36-19-2 ATS (65.5%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 25-7 SU and 22-8-2 ATS (73.3%) surge!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-2 vs. NYK), BOSTON (-7 at ORL)
• Beware of teams that shoot the 3pt shot well in one game but still lose. Those that shot 40.0% or better on 3 point shots but still lost have gone just 19-34-1 ATS (35.8%) in the next contest since 2016 in the first round.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-2 vs NYK), LA LAKERS (+3 at MIN)
First Round Trends by Game Number
• First round Game Three home teams are just 19-27 SU and 21-25 ATS (45.7%) since 2019.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+5.5 vs. CLE), GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs. HOU)
• Game Three point spreads most often tell the story, as hosts of 4.5-points or more are on a 18-2 SU and 16-4 ATS (80%) stretch since 2013, while home dogs of 4.5-points or more are just 4-18 SU and 9-12-1 ATS (42.9%) in that same span.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+5.5 vs. CLE)
• Since you’re probably wondering at this point, Game Three home teams in the +4 to -4 line range are currently on a brutal skid of 9-20 SU and 8-20-1 ATS (28.6%) since 2017.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs. HOU)
• Game Four home teams in the +3 to -3 line range have fared well recently, going 20-10 SU and 20-9-1 ATS (69%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-2 vs. NYK), MINNESOTA (-3 vs. LAL)
• Game Four home underdogs of 3.5 points or more are just 10-28 SU and 13-24-1 ATS (35.1%) since 2013.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS (+15 vs. OKC), ORLANDO (+7 vs. BOS)
• Teams down 0-3 in a first round series are just 12-24 SU and 15-20-1 ATS (42.9%) in their last 36 Game Four tries.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+15 vs. OKC)
Trends by Seed Number
• #1 seeds close out series…period. They are 21-3 SU and 17-7 ATS (70.8%) in their last 24 first round playoff closeout tries. This is a big reason they haven’t been pushed to a Game Seven since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15 at MEM)
• #2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk – #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 71-17 SU and 54-34 ATS (61.4%) when favored by 4.5 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-7 at ORL)
• #2 seeds have also bounced back quickly from losses, 22-3 SU and 19-6 ATS (76%) in their last 25.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-7 at ORL)
• #3 seeds bounce back on the road after losses – Third-seeded teams are on a run of 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) on the road after losing the prior game in a first round series.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+3 at MIN)
• #4 seeds have been brutal in Games Three and Four, with a 15-35 SU and 17-32-1 ATS (34.7%) record in such games of their first round series since 2013.
• #4 seeds have tended to stack losses, as they are just 28-35 SU and 22-41 ATS (34.9%) since 2013 in the same series games following a loss.
Systems Match (FADE ALL): DENVER (+6.5 at LAC), INDIANA (+4.5 at MIL)
Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination
• Big road favorites of 5 points or more looking to close out series are money, showing a record of 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) since the start of the 2013 postseason.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15 at MEM)
First Round Game Scoring Trends
• Success in first round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 120-28 SU and 118-30 ATS (79.7%) run over the last six postseasons. These teams were 15-1 SU and ATS in 2024, with the only loss coming in a 121-118 decision in which both teams met the magic scoring mark.
• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last six first round playoff seasons are 105-19 SU and 102-20-2 ATS (83.6%).
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 93-66 SU and 88-68-3 ATS (56.4%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
* Home teams on One Day Rest are 61-54 SU and 63-49-3 ATS (56.3%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-3 vs. LAL), MILWAUKEE (-4.5 vs. IND)
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 46-20 SU and 42-21-3 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+6 vs. CLE), GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs. HOU), DETROIT (-2 vs. NYK)
* Under the total was 86-67 (56.2%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-MIA (o/u at 213), HOU-GSW (o/u at 203), NYK-DET (o/u at 216.5)
* Under the total was 62-24 (72.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAL-MIN (o/u at 209), IND-MIL (o/u at 226)
* Under the total was 123-74 (62.4%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-GSW (o/u at 203), NYK-DET (o/u at 216.5), LAL-MIN (o/u at 209), BOS-ORL (o/u at 196.5), IND-MIL (o/u at 226)
* Under the total is on a 89-37-1 (70.6%) in the last 127 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-MEM (o/u at 223), DEN-LAC (o/u at 211.5), LAL-MIN (o/u at 209), BOS-ORL (o/u at 196.5), IND-MIL (o/u at 226)
* Under the total was 82-53 (60.7%) since start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-GSW (o/u at 203), NYK-DET (o/u at 216.5), LAL-MIN (o/u at 209), IND-MIL (o/u at 226)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 58-51 SU and 47-59-3 ATS skid in the last 109 when playing on standard One Day Rest
4/27: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Indiana
Trend Match (FADE ATS): MILWAUKEE (-4.5 vs. IND)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 150-54 SU and 122-81-1 ATS (60.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 vs. DEN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 112-90 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 224-175 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 288-226 (56%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-MEM (o/u at 223)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 278-146 SU but just 180-231-13 ATS (43.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (*if they become favored, +2 currently*)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 301-232 SU but 239-279-15 ATS (46.1%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-68-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 vs. DEN)
Unusual shooting performance systems
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 338-308 SU but 291-335-18 ATS (46.5%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-5.5 at MIA)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 168-185 SU and 158-185-10 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-5.5 at MIA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 76-18 SU and 52-39-3 ATS (57.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15 at MEM)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 260-308-4 ATS (45.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 31-136 SU and 71-90-6 ATS (44.1%).
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15 at MEM)
This Weekend’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This weekend’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). MEMPHIS +15 (+3.5)
NEW YORK +2 (+3.5)
3. HOUSTON +3.5 (+0.6)
This weekend’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -3 (+1.0)
2. LA CLIPPERS -6.5 (+0.2)
This weekend’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +3.5 (+5.0)
2. MEMPHIS +15 (+3.1)
3. NEW YORK +2 (+1.8)
This weekend’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -3 (+2.4)
2. CLEVELAND -5.5 (+1.5)
3. MILWAUKEE -4.5 (+0.1)
This weekend’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-MIA OVER 212 (+3.0)
2. NYK-DET OVER 216.5 (+1.1)
3. IND-MIL OVER 226 (+0.9)
This weekend’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: LAL-MIN UNDER 209 (-0.3)
This weekend’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +2 (+3.7)
2. MEMPHIS +15 (+3.3)
3. DENVER +6.5 (+2.0)
This weekend’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -3 (+1.3)
This weekend’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-MIA OVER 212 (+4.2)
2. BOS-ORL OVER 196.5 (+3.0)
3. NYK-DET OVER 216.5 (+2.9)
This weekend’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LAL-MIN UNDER 209 (-0.1)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of this weekend’s games:
Saturday, April 26, 2025
(561) CLEVELAND at (562) MIAMI
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the MIA-CLE head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(563) OKLAHOMA CITY at (564) MEMPHIS
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head matchups with Memphis
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
* Under the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the MEM-OKC head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(565) DENVER at (566) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 9-1-1 in the last 11 of the DEN-LAC head-to-head series in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(567) HOUSTON at (568) GOLDEN STATE
* Under the total has converted in six straight head-to-head meetings between HOU and GSW
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
Sunday, April 27, 2025
(569) NEW YORK at (570) DETROIT
* Favorites are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS in the last 12 of the NYK-DET head-to-head series in Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(571) LA LAKERS at (572) MINNESOTA
* Favorites are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the LAL-MIN head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(573) BOSTON at (574) ORLANDO
* Home teams are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the ORL-BOS head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
(575) INDIANA at (576) MILWAUKEE
* Favorites are 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight of the MIL-IND head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS
The post NBA Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for April 26-27 appeared first on VSiN.
