The Damian Lillard era in Milwaukee has been a disappointment to say the least. In two seasons the Bucks have won fewer than 100 games, and for a second consecutive year they enter a postseason series with the Pacers with injury concerns. Last year at this time it was Giannis Antetokounmpo who was not available due to a calf strain. This year, Lillard is absent due to deep vein thrombosis in his calf. Milwaukee must also go on the road this year. Indiana did not dominate the regular season series like it did last year, but the Pacers finished the season strong. They are also looking to build on a postseason run that ended in the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago.
Pacers vs. Bucks Series Preview
The betting initially believed that Lillard could be making an appearance in this series to start. DraftKings opened Indiana as a -175 favorite to win the series, but since then we have learned the Bucks’ point guard will not be available to start. The price is now up to -210 for the Pacers at multiple shops. Milwaukee has a strong history of playing games with its injured stars. Last season, the Bucks never truly ruled Antetokounmpo out of the series against the Pacers, but he never played a game. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the same thing happen again.
Still, Milwaukee has the Greek Freak, and Indiana has no answer for him.
Antetokounmpo averaged 30 points, 12.3 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.3 steals in four games against Indiana. The Pacers do not have a true defensive option for the two-time MVP. Pascal Siakam has mostly drawn the assignment this season, but it has not gone well. Antetokounmpo went 22-of-33 and scored 47 points with Siakam on him, according to the NBA tracking data. Against Myles Turner he went 14-of-25 for 38 points. Without Lillard to take some of the usage away from him, Antetokounmpo should eat in this series. In fact, he is -400 to lead the series in scoring at BetMGM and that is an extremely accurate price.
It would be disingenuous to say Milwaukee is better without Lillard, but it does have some upside in its current form. Ryan Rollins has emerged as a solid option at point guard in the place of Lillard. Rollins is 6-foot-4 with good size and length. He is a better defensive option at guard than Lillard is. He can also switch onto some wings and hold his own. Perimeter defense has been an issue throughout the season for the Bucks, and Rollins at least stems the tide on that front. But, will he be enough in this series?
Tyrese Haliburton really found his groove after the All-Star break. In the final 21 games of the regular season he averaged 20.6 points and 11 assists per game on 53.3% shooting from the floor and 43.9% from deep. Haliburton and Siakam form a deadly duo when on the floor together as well. The Pacers average 119.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time in those minutes, and their most used lineup with that pairing has a +13.2 net rating.
This is a series in which each team boasts an edge over the other. Milwaukee comes into this with a much better frontcourt than that of Indiana. But, the Pacers have a massive edge at guard. Initially I believed this to be a series in which Indiana could dispatch Milwaukee with ease, but the Bucks do have some upside on defense I believe could keep this series extremely tight.
DraftKings and BetMGM are offering the Bucks at +1.5 games with a -135 price. That is a fair number to play in this series. Antetokounmpo will dominate in this series. He is also a natural defender for Siakam. On the other end, despite the upside of Rollins at the point of attack, Milwaukee really has no way to contain Haliburton and this deep backcourt for Indiana. This should lead to a long series in which the Bucks can keep close and perhaps steal when all is said and done.
Series Pick: Bucks +1.5 Games (-135)
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