In the opening round of the 2024-25 NBA Playoffs, the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors clash in the loaded Western Conference. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
Rockets vs. Warriors Series Preview
When looking at Sports Odds History, the Warriors are only the second No. 7 in their database to be favored over a No. 2. The other was the Lakers in 2021, who lost to the second-seeded Suns. And speaking of Phoenix, this series reminds me of last year’s meeting between the Suns and Timberwolves. After Minnesota had an awesome regular season, Phoenix ended up being a popular pick to beat a third-seeded Timberwolves team in the opening round. Then, Minnesota overwhelmed its older opponent with size, athleticism and tenacity in a series that ultimately ended with a sweep.
I don’t see the Rockets sweeping the Warriors. One of the big differences between this Golden State team and that Phoenix team is that the Warriors have some impressive connectivity, and their pieces fit together better than you’d think when looking at the roster. But I do like Houston to find a way here, and I think there’s a decent shot the team wins in six or fewer games.
It’s never a good idea to overreact to one game, but how can you not learn some lessons from what we saw in a meeting between these teams on April 6th? That was a game the Warriors needed to win, but the Rockets went into the Chase Center and won 106-96. Amen Thompson was the primary defender for Stephen Curry in that one, and the talented second-year wing held him to three points in 33 minutes. Curry was just 1 for 10 from the floor and 1 for 8 from 3 in the loss. Obviously, Curry is going to have a ton of moments in this series. It’s impossible to keep one of the sport’s all-time great players down. But Thompson is going to chase Curry around, be physical with him and force him to take tough shots — if the officials allow it. And Dillon Brooks is going to do the same with Jimmy Butler.
This Houston team is fourth in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (110.1), according to Dunks & Threes. None of that is by accident. The Rockets compete every minute they’re on the floor, they have size and length at every position and they’re extremely well coached. Ime Udoka is one of the best basketball minds in the world, and he’s a master at motivating his players.
Tthe main concern with the Rockets is that they lack experience and have issues executing as a halfcourt offense. You’re going to hear a lot about the Rockets being 12th in points per 100 possessions (116.3) in a halfcourt setting this season. But what people fail to point out is that Houston got a lot better as the season progressed. From the start of the year to January 1st, the Rockets scored only 114.4 points per 100 possessions in the halfcourt. Since then, Houston is scoring 117.5 points per 100 possessions in the halfcourt.
The Rockets are also just good at finding ways to make up for their pedestrian halfcourt offense. They make teams pay for turning the ball over against them, taking advantage of their speed and athleticism in transition. They also dominate the offensive glass, with the double-big lineup of Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams being a nightmare for opponents. And that pairing should create chaos in this series. Golden State was the third-worst team in the league when it came to rebounds per game for opposing centers this year. This is an undersized team that is going to need to do everything it can to keep Adams off the glass, but I don’t think they’ll be successful. He’s one of the best offensive rebounders in league history.
I’m also a little higher on the Rockets halfcourt offense than most when it comes to this specific matchup. Sengun isn’t going to back down from the challenge of scoring on Draymond Green around the basket. The 22-year-old is awesome as a low-post scorer, and he can also create offense for his teammates. Also, while there will definitely be some bad moments with Jalen Green, there will also be plenty of good ones. The same can even be said for Fred VanVleet, who might be a little inefficient but has proven to be a big shot taker and a big shot maker throughout his career.
Overall, it’s just incredibly rare that you get the opportunity to grab plus-money odds on a better team that also has home-court advantage. Even if you want to say the Warriors have been better than the Rockets since the Butler trade, that argument is a bit harder to make when thinking about the game these teams played in The Bay. A double-digit win and a dominant performance like that doesn’t happen by mistake. The Rockets are built to beat a team with only one lethal perimeter player. They have the personnel to make Curry uncomfortable, and they’re going to dare guys like Butler, Green and some of the other role players — like Gary Payton II — to make outside shots. That might have happened in Golden State’s win over Memphis in the Play-In Tournament, but there’s a career’s worth of shooting numbers that suggest it won’t happen regularly over the course of a seven-game series.
Best Bet: Rockets To Win (+165 – 1.5 units) & Rocket -1.5 Games (+340 – 0.5 units)
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