Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart tennis best bets for April 16th
Between the ATP and WTA Tours, we have some massive 500-level events to watch this week. I’m going to continue churning out tennis best bets from Sunday to Thursday (my plays for most semifinals and finals will be on the picks page, though I will make exceptions for massive weekend matchups), so make sure you’re checking the website for coverage on 500-level events — like Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription! It’s only $59 to get access to everything until August 1st!
With all of that in mind, check out my Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart best bets for Wednesday, April 16th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Sebastian Baez vs. Holger Rune – Barcelona
If this match was being played at the start of the season, I probably would have taken Rune. It’s no secret that I’m incredibly high on the Dane’s game. I have said a few times that I think he’ll win a major one day. But Rune is off to a strange start to the 2025 season. The 21-year-old did make the semifinals at Indian Wells, and he also played well in a run to the Round of 16 at the Australian Open. However, Rune has also retired from a number of matches this year, and it genuinely feels like he’s always a threat to call it quits in the opening set. On top of that, Rune lost in his first match in two consecutive events before arriving in Barcelona. And I wasn’t all that impressed with his level in a 7-5, 6-4 win over 37-year-old Albert Ramos Vinolas on Monday.
With Rune not playing his best tennis, it’s just hard not to see some value in Baez at +130 odds. Only two players on the ATP Tour have won more clay-court matches than Baez’s 24 over the last 52 weeks. Baez is also 3-2 in five ATP-level matches against Rune, with all three of the wins coming on clay. One of those was as recent as May 13th, 2024, when Baez beat Rune in Rome.
I just like that Baez is going to look to grind out this win, extending rallies and pounding the ball all over the court with heavy topspin. There’s a real chance he’ll be able to tire Rune out.
I’d also look to take this specifically at a shop that pays out plays on the player that advances no matter how long it lasts. With Rune’s inability to stay healthy right now, I can see him tapping out if he goes down a break or two in the first. Something isn’t right with him.
Pick: Baez ML (+130)
Ella Seidel vs. Tatjana Maria – Stuttgart
Maria is an accomplished player, but her best tennis is behind her at 37 years old. So, while Maria can be dangerous on clay, I’m not quite sure she’s a player anybody fears right now. Maria has a ton of variety, which is always a good thing on clay. She’s also good at being precise with her shots and creating tough angles for her opponents. The problem is that craft only goes so far. At some point, it’s important to be able to finish points. I’m not sure I see Maria being able to do that consistently in this match.
Not only is Seidel a solid mover, but she also has a big baseline game. She hits big, powerful strokes, and she hits them with plenty of topspin. So, she’s a player that should be quite good on clay in her career. And as far as this matchup goes, I see Seidel having very few problems tracking down Maria’s groundstrokes, then sending them back with even more pace.
Realistically, the only reason to back off Seidel here is her lack of experience. But the 20-year-old has won a ton of matches since the start 2025 when factoring in what she has done at the lower levels of women’s tennis. I think she’ll be comfortable out there. She has a golden opportunity to make some noise as she takes on a wild card that doesn’t even deserve to be playing here.
Pick: Seidel ML (-146 – 1.5 units)
Elise Mertens vs. Diana Shnaider – Stuttgart
Shnaider played well in the final two sets of her match against Veronika Kudermetova on Monday, but she’s still just 9-9 since the start of the 2025 season. The Russian has really struggled to find the gear she had in 2024, when she was 42-21 and won four titles. Well, if Shnaider isn’t at her very best, she’s not going to beat Mertens. The Belgian is a ridiculous 68-36 on clay in her career, and she’s also 26-9 against left-handed players. One of those wins also happened to be a 6-0, 6-4 drubbing of Shnaider in Monterrey in 2023.
I just trust what I’m getting from Mertens, and I can’t say the same about Shnaider right now. Of course, the southpaw is going to figure things out sooner or later. She’s too talented not to. But I’m willing to take a chance on it not happening here.
Pick: Mertens ML (-125 – 1.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
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