In the opening round of the 2024-25 NBA Playoffs, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers clash in the loaded Western Conference. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
Nuggets vs. Clippers Series Preview
After the Mike Malone firing, I went on a few VSiN shows and stressed that a lot of it could have been a desire to see what David Adelman would do with full control of the team. For years now, Adelman has been credited with building an elite offense around Nikola Jokic, and his name has come up in a lot of head coaching searches. So, with the Nuggets feeling like they had nowhere to go but down, why not see what Adelman can do? Well, Denver finished the regular season with three wins under Adelman, and the team performed like the best offense in basketball and a top-15 defense, according to points per 100 possessions and points allowed per 100 possessions at Cleaning The Glass. So, it’s hard not to think the Nuggets are entering the postseason in a better place than they would have been with Malone at the helm. They’re also hosting an opening-round playoff series, so they’ll be aided by the fact that they’ll potentially play four games with one of the most significant home-court advantages in basketball. Having said that, I still feel the wrong team is favored in this series.
Since the start of March, Denver has been a bottom-10 team in points allowed per 100 possessions (119.3). This has been one of the worst defensive teams in basketball for an extended period of time, and I’m not sure what Adelman can do to change that. It’s very much a personnel issue. The Nuggets rotation doesn’t have many plus-level defenders, and it’s also full of guys that are banged up and constantly nursing injuries. Well, if you can’t consistently get stops, you’re not going to be able to beat the Clippers.
In that same span, Los Angeles is second in the NBA in points per 100 possessions (123.0), with Kawhi Leonard looking like the best version of himself and James Harden continuing to be an offensive force in this league. Those two, along with an awesome supporting cast and an X’s-and-O’s magician like Ty Lue, should terrorize an unorganized — and sometimes unmotivated — Denver defense. Harden is going to tear the Nuggets apart as a pick-and-roll ball handler, and the Nuggets don’t have anybody that can guard Leonard on an island.
Of course, teams also need to be able to stop Denver. But Los Angeles is better equipped than anybody to do that. This Clippers team is second in Dunks & Threes’ adjusted defensive rating (109.2) this season, and they have awesome defenders all throughout the rotation. Leonard, Ivica Zubac, Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. are all fantastic. And Zubac is the big one here. I know there’s nobody on the planet that can actually shut Jokic down over the course of a seven-game series, but Zubac is coming off a Defensive Player of the Year-worthy season and will at least make the reigning MVP work every game. That should really be enough, especially if Jamal Murray isn’t healthy enough to find his game.
I think the only thing to really worry about here is the health of Leonard. There’s always a possibility he’s going to miss some games. That’s just the harsh reality given everything he has been through in his career. But Los Angeles has done a good job of managing his time on court this year. The Clippers took their precious time in getting him back to start the season, and he sat out back-to-backs all year. Los Angeles has also been able to lean on Harden and Norman Powell for extended stretches, taking pressure off Leonard in games. All of that has allowed him to look like an All-NBA player for months. And all of that is why I’m comfortable taking Los Angeles — and have some futures on this team as well.
This is also a series in which I’d considering looking to alternate markets. I don’t see this one going to a Game 7 with Los Angeles winning at Ball Arena. I think we’ll see the Clippers steal home-court advantage in one of the first two games and end it in six games or less. Since March 1st, Los Angeles has been the third-best team in basketball according to Cleaning The Glass’ Efficiency Differential. The Clippers should be able to put down a Nuggets team that is entering an awkward offseason.
Best Bet: Clippers To Win (+120)
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