The 2025 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters is underway, signaling the true start of clay-court season. Some of the top players in the world are battling it out for the first 1000-level tournament on the dirt. This tournament, played at Monte-Carlo Country Club, should bring some real drama, as everybody wants to start off the European clay-court swing on a positive note.
I’m going to be doing daily tennis best bets throughout this tournament, and that continues with my Monte-Carlo best bets for Friday, April 11th. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but I occasionally add some picks to the picks page. I’ll also have plays for other tournaments on that page, so it definitely pays to be a VSiN Pro. Our Summer Special is only $59 and covers you through August 1st. That means you’ll get a ton of my tennis picks and write-ups, as well as the content we provide for all other sports — including our live programming!
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Alexei Popyrin
Popyrin burned me last round, stealing a win from Casper Ruud in a match in which he was significantly outplayed. After dropping the first set, Ruud was in clear control of most of the rallies in the second and third sets. But Popyrin’s big serve allowed him to keep things just tight enough, then Ruud uncharacteristically unraveled late in the third set.
Popyrin has now won three consecutive matches in which he has largely failed to play clean tennis. In the Round of 64, he beat Ugo Humbert in a tight three-set match, despite the fact the Frenchman was pretty much playing with one hand. Then, he needed three sets to beat a fatigued Frances Tiafoe in the Round of 32, and that came before the meeting with Ruud. Well, with Popyrin flirting with disaster, I see his run coming to an end against Davidovich Fokina, who just beat a red-hot Jack Draper in the Round of 16.
Davidovich Fokina is 17-8 with a career-best winning percentage (68.0%) in 2025. He’s playing some fantastic tennis, and he’s now playing at one of his favorite venus. Davidovich Fokina made his his only 1000-level final in Monte-Carlo back in 2022, and he played a good match against Stefanos Tsitsipas in that one. With his ability to cover the court and hit big-time shots from both wings, he’s just a good player on slower surfaces.
Davidovich Fokina has also been one of the best returners on the planet in 2025, so he could get into Popyrin’s service games and frustrate the Australian. If he does, Davidovich Fokina just needs to serve decently himself. If he can do that, this will be a straightforward win.
Bet: Davidovich Fokina ML (-161)
NOTE: I posted this Davidovich Fokinga play to the VSiN picks page as soon as the odds popped up. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that number will be available again, but -1.5 games at -145 odds isn’t a terrible option. You could also parlay Davidovich Fokina with something else to get the price down.
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
I’m not going to get carried away with backing Tsitsipas here, as I am a little nervous about this being the “sucker” side. However, I do feel like I need to have at least a little something on it. Tsitsipas is the defending champion in Monte-Carlo, has won three of the last four titles here and also happens to be 5-0 against Musetti in his career. That said, there’s a lot that points to the Greek star winning this one.
The on-court matchup is quite favorable for Tsitsipas. He’s a better server than Musetti, so he should get through his service games with fewer problems. He also has the biggest weapon on the court, as he has one of the sport’s best forehands. I also like Tsitsipas’ ability to cover the court, put points together and come to the net to show off his ability to win with his volleys.
You don’t luck your way into winning this title three times. Tsitsipas is a force here. He also happens to be coming off a better start to the season than we have seen from him in recent years, so his confidence is sky-high and he’s in good form. Considering all of that, I really would be surprised if Tsitsipas loses. But the fact the sharp money is on Musetti scares me, so I’m not playing this to win 1.5 or 2 units. I normally would.
Bet: Tsitsipas ML (-150)
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