Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 33-66 in their last 99 tries (-18.71 units, ROI: -18.9%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at CLE)
* Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 371-354 (51.2%) for +25.18 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.5%.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (-105 vs. MIL)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 25-8 (+13.37 units) in DAY games vs teams with a losing record in last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-105 at BOS)
Trend: Under the total is 16-8 (66.7%, +7.14 units) in the last 24 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 29.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a good start, 9-2 for +4.84 units, an ROI of 44%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-250 vs. CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are slightly positive, 8-2 for +3.44 units.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-250 vs CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 27-40 for -8.92 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+100 at KC), TORONTO (-105 at BOS)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have been a blemish on our overall good start, as they are 24-36 for -10.02 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+100 at KC), TORONTO (-105 at BOS)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in ‘23, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and so far it is 15-11 for +1.02 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-115 at COL), TORONTO (-105 at BOS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TAMPA BAY, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS, MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NONE YET TODAY
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 306-315 but for +41.20 units and an ROI of 6.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at CLE), BOSTON (-115 vs. TOR)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 517-689 but for +19.77 units and a ROI of 1.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+105 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+110 at TB)
*watch for MINNESOTA at KC, +100 currently
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 273-300 but for +77.67 units and an ROI of 13.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): *watch for MINNESOTA at KC, +100 currently
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 124-48 but for +16.17 units and an ROI of 9.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-250 vs. CWS)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 483-538 record, but for +60.20 units and an ROI of 5.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at CLE), LA ANGELS (+110 at TB)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eigh different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 371-354 (51.2%) for +25.18 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.5%.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (-105 vs. MIL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1705-1623 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -238.19 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-115 at COL)
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1653-2112 (43.9%) for -183.66 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at CLE), TORONTO (-105 at BOS)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3458-3042 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -476.81 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-130 vs. LAA)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 980-849 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +13.36 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-115 vs. TOR), CLEVELAND (-250 vs. CWS), KANSAS CITY (-120 vs. MIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 30-90 skid (-40.26 units, ROI -33.6%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 54-123 skid (-41.54 units, ROI: -23.5%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 69-152 (-62.44 units, ROI: -28.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 33-66 in their last 99 tries (-18.71 units, ROI: -18.9%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 193-192 run (+28.21 units, ROI: 7.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at CLE)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +205 (+25 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MILWAUKEE -115 (+18 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PHI-ATL OVER 7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TOR-BOS UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.
(909) MINNESOTA (4-8) at (910) KANSAS CITY (6-6)
Trend: MIN is 6-13 (-8.98 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last four seasons
Trend Match: FADE MINNESOTA (*if they fall into this line range, +100 currently*)
(911) TORONTO (8-5) at (912) BOSTON (6-7)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 25-8 (+13.37 units) in day games vs. teams with a losing record in the last six seasons
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO (-105 at BOS)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 11-3 vs. AL teams (+6.83 units) since 2019
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON (-115 vs. TOR)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #6: Chi White Sox at Cleveland, Tue 4/8-Thu 4/10
Trend: Under the total is 16-8 (66.7%, +7.14 units) in the last 24 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 29.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, April 11)
The post MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Thursday, April 10 appeared first on VSiN.
