Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Predictions: Tennis best bets and picks for Tuesday, April 8th

The 2025 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters is underway, signaling the true start of clay-court season. Some of the top players in the world are battling it out for the first 1000-level tournament on the dirt. This tournament, played at Monte-Carlo Country Club, should bring some real drama, as everybody wants to start off the European clay-court swing on a positive note.

I’m going to be doing daily tennis best bets throughout this tournament, and that continues with the second full day of action. That said, check out my Monte-Carlo best bets for Tuesday, April 8th. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but I occasionally add some picks to the picks page. I’ll also have plays for other tournaments on that page, so it definitely pays to be a VSiN Pro. Our Summer Special is only $59 and covers you through August 1st. That means you’ll get a ton of my tennis picks and write-ups, as well as the content we provide for all other sports — including our live programming!

Dusan Lajovic vs. Flavio Cobolli
Marcos Giron vs. Jack Draper

I was really close to playing Lajovic on the moneyline, but I have some scar tissue when it comes to needing the Serbian to close out matches. So, I’m taking Lajovic to win a set against Cobolli and parlaying it with Draper to win on the moneyline. I love the Brit in his match against Giron, but I don’t want to lay any games — or sets. So, this is a good way to get a piece of two strong leans.

With Lajovic, I just love the way he plays on slower courts. He has a big game from the back of the court, and having ample time to set up only makes him more dangerous. He also has an extremely effective kick serve, which allows him to move opponents off the court and take control of rallies. On these courts, where it’s very difficult to hold, that kick can be a huge factor. Lajovic is also playing a player that has really struggled with his serve for quite some time now. I know Cobolli won a title in Bucharest last week, but that wasn’t enough for me to erase what I saw earlier in 2025. Also, coming off a week like that makes Cobolli susceptible to a weak opening-round performance in Monte-Carlo. He might lack motivation and he’ll be facing an in-form Lajovic that just made it through qualifying.

As far as the other match goes, I’m just very in on Draper surprising people on clay this season. The big serve, the big backhand and the heavy topspin on the forehand side all won him Indian Wells. All of that should help him find a way to play some good tennis on the dirt. Of course, I lost fading Giron on Monday, but that’s not a reason to get scared and change my strategy for Tuesday. It would definitely sting to lose fading the same player twice — especially when it’s an American — but it’s hard to see Giron’s path to victory here.

PARLAY: Lajovic +1.5 Sets & Draper ML (-116 – 1.5 units)

Nuno Borges vs. Holger Rune
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Arthur Fils

Rune looked great at Indian Wells and then followed it up with a loss in his first match in Miami. That feels like “The Holger Rune Experience” at the moment. The young Dane is struggling to find consistency, but he’s still unbelievable when you stick him on the right surface. Well, this feels like the right surface. Rune made the final here in 2023, then lost in an epic three-set match against Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals last year. He has proven that his ability to do pretty much anything on a tennis court is especially hard to deal with in slower conditions. On top of that, Rune has enjoyed the Borges matchup in the past. He’s 2-0 with two straight-set wins over Borges, with one of those victories being a 6-0, 6-2 beatdown on the slow courts in Acapulco in 2023. Borges is a really solid player, but I don’t think he has the firepower to hit through Rune. And his serve isn’t good enough to take advantage of a weak Rune return.

If Rune takes care of business early, it might make sense to take Griekspoor to win a set against Fils. That’d be a hedge that would allow you to potentially middle this parlay. However, I do think the Frenchman will win this one. Griekspoor played four matches in Marrakech last week, with a few of them being extremely physical battles. I understand the Dutchman wants to win some money and earn some ranking points, but I fear he might have emptied out the tank before an important tournament. That’s never a wise decision. Fils also happens to be playing some awesome tennis in 2025, and he’s great on clay. In his career, he’s 19-14 on the surface. He’s also 8-6 over the last 52 weeks. Fils is just a player with a ton of power, but he also has the athleticism required to cover the court at a high level. That’s always a tough player to beat on a slower court.

PARLAY: Rune ML & Fils ML (+113)

Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Brandon Nakashima

Bautista Agut is just 2-9 since the start of the 2025 season, so I can’t say I feel great about backing him. In a lot of ways, this feels like the Stan Wawrinka play from Monday. However, Nakashima is coming over from Houston, where the courts are nothing like the ones in Monte-Carlo. He’s going to need to adjust to the different style of play, and I’m not sure his game is a great fit for this specific event. It’s very hard to hold on these courts, which was on full display in the first full day of action. Well, when you take away Nakashima’s serve, you’re suddenly talking about a very vulnerable player.

As long as Bautista Agut doesn’t fall apart as a server — which isn’t a given — this is a match that he should feel pretty good about. His forehand is going to be the biggest weapon in baseline exchanges, and the slow courts should allow him to throw it back and play his usual brand of good defense. But this is a match I’d suggest monitoring live, as it might be worth hedging a little in-play if Bautista Agut wins the first set. It wouldn’t stun me if he suffers the same fate as Wawrinka, coming out hot and losing steam after an hour or so.

Bet: Bautista Agut ML (+123)

Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Frances Tiafoe

Tiafoe has won four matches in a row against Kecmanovic, but that means very little to me. According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, excluding the French Open, Kecmanovic was the eighth-best clay-court player on the ATP Tour when it comes to performance rating (7.94) in 2024. Well, Tiafoe has a 37-41 career record on the dirt, and a lot of those wins came in Houston. As I just said with Nakashima, that clay is nothing like the clay in Europe. The tournament in Houston is really more of a hard-court event that allows you to slide.

Tiafoe also just played a lot of tennis last week, then he had to fly over to Monte-Carlo. With only one full day in between the final in Houston — which was a miserable performance in a loss to Jenson Brooksby — there’s just no way Tiafoe is feeling great physically or mentally. So, Kecmanovic should be able to take advantage of this awesome scheduling spot, especially with his ability to stay solid from the baseline.

Kecmanovic also hasn’t played well in Monte-Carlo in his career, but he has played five matches at this venue. Tiafoe has never played this event, so he’s going to need to adjust on the fly.

Bet: Kecmanovic -2.5 Games (-137 – 1.5 units)