March Madness Championship Game Analytics Report:
After an epic Final Four Saturday, we are down to two teams in the hunt for the 2025 NCAA basketball championship: Houston and Florida. I’m not sure it is the matchup everyone expected, but it is a good one nonetheless. I continue the series, qualifying the key data from my recently published articles in the VSiN March Mania Betting Guide for the game, a battle between #1 seeds, the fifth such occasion in the last 10 tournaments.
Note that all the trend records, unless noted, are as of heading into this year’s tournament. Unfortunately, compared to the recent rounds, there isn’t nearly as much available for this matchup.
From the “Navigating the Tournament Round by Round” article in the guide, here are the trends and qualifying games for the Championship Game:
Championship Game Historical Trends
• Championship game favorites of 3 points or more are on a 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) run, while those favored by 2.5 or less are just 4-4 SU and ATS since 1998. Last year, UConn (-7) handled Purdue rather comfortably, 75-60.
This trend is NEUTRAL to FLORIDA -1
• Only twice in the last 24 years did the championship-winning team not cover the spread (Duke against Butler in 2010, Kansas versus North Carolina in 2022).
This trend favors OUTRIGHT WINNER also ATS
• The average college basketball total has hovered in near 145 ranges in recent years. In the last eight championship games with moderately lower totals (132-144), Under the total is 7-1.
This trend favors UNDER the total FLORIDA-HOUSTON 141.5
• The last five championship games featuring two #1 seeds have all gone Under the total.
This trend favors Under the total FLORIDA-HOUSTON 141.5
• Bettors have gone just 7-10 ATS (41.2%) in their last 17 championship games when moving opening lines towards one team or the other. The last years they have won with UConn, however. This same group is on a 14-7 (66.7%) run when moving totals one way or the other. Last year’s game pushed downward from 147.5 to 143 and went Under handily.
We have not seen any consensus line movement yet, but the opening total has dropped from 142 to 141.5, perhaps favoring Florida-Houston Under 141.5
From the “Handicapping the tournament by conferences” article, here are the conference trends that will be applicable for the Championship Game on Monday:
Big 12
Teams in the field/First matchup
HOUSTON (Midwest #1) vs. FLORIDA-SEC
Trends
– Including a 69-50 rout of Tennessee in the Elite Eight round, HOUSTON is on a three-game SU winning streak (2-1 ATS) over the last three years versus SEC teams in the NCAAs.
SEC
Teams in the field/First matchup
FLORIDA (West #1) vs. HOUSTON-Big 12
Trends
– Underdogs are 48-32 ATS (60%) in the last 80 SEC NCAA tourney games overall, but they were just 5-11 ATS last year.
This trend favors HOUSTON +1
– As pick ’ems or small favorites of 5 points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 45-51 SU & 37-55-4 ATS (40.2%) in the NCAA’s since ’99.
This trend goes against FLORIDA -1
– Florida is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS vs. teams from the Big 12 in NCAA tourney play since 2000, including an 84-79 win/no cover versus Texas Tech in the Elite 8 round.
Top Head-to-Head Trends and Recent History Notes for the Final Four Round
Here are the Championship Game teams’ recent history in this round, plus any relevant head-to-head information:
(701) FLORIDA vs. (702) HOUSTON
* Florida & Houston haven’t met since the early 70s in head-to-head play. The Cougars are 2-0 versus the Gators, but the most recent meeting was in 1973.
* Houston has only played in two national championship games in its program history, losing in back-to-back years in 1983 and 1984 to NC State and Georgetown, respectively.
* This will be Florida’s fourth ever appearance in the NCAA title game, having lost in the 2000 game but winning in back-to-back years in 2006 and 2007.
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