On Monday, April 7th, the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters will be in full swing. There were three opening-round matches on Sunday, but Monday marks the first full day of action. This tournament, played at Monte-Carlo Country Club in Monaco, is one of the most exciting ones of the year. This is the only Masters 1000 event that is still decided in a seven-day span, meaning nonstop action and nothing but spectacular matchups. Heading into this event, Carlos Alcaraz is the betting favorite to lift his first 1000-level title of the year. However, Novak Djokovic and many others — including three-time champion (and defending champion) Stefanos Tsitsipas — will be hopeful that they can take this thing home. The only huge absence this week is Jannik Sinner, who will make his return from a three-month suspension in Rome. With that out of the way, let’s get into a quick breakdown of the conditions in Monte-Carlo and some futures to lock in for the tournament.
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters playing conditions
This is one of the slowest clay-court events of the year, so this is a tournament that produces long rallies. It typically favors players that can defend the baseline and be consistent from the back of the court, and it also helps to be good when it comes to point construction. Variety is also somewhat crucial here, as it’s hard to win in gritty conditions when you only have one speed. It’s also important to be mentally tough and capable of making on-the-fly adjustments here. With this tournament being played at sea level, and right near the water, wind will be a factor. That can be frustrating and ultimately doom players that tend to fold easily.
Serving is still important in Monte-Carlo, but that’s because serving is important everywhere. However, Tennis Abstract had a Surface Speed of 0.62 for last year’s Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, meaning 38% fewer aces than you get on a tour-average surface. That said, this isn’t a great event for serve bots, or players that you’d normally identify as big servers. Tsitsipas has won this event three times, and his weapon of a serve is a factor. But the Greek star is also excellent as a mover, can hit big, heavy shots from the baseline and knows how to win points at the net. Since I’ve started following tennis, there hasn’t been a single Monte-Carlo winner that I’d consider a server first.
Another thing to factor in here is conditioning. A lot of the matches you’ll see this week will be three-set wars. You want to be backing players that you know can handle playing a few of those matches in a row.
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters futures
Matteo Berrettini To Win Quarter 1 (11-1 – 0.25 units) – It’s hard to disagree with anybody that says Tsitsipas will win this quarter, but I don’t see much value in taking him at his current number. However, I do think it’s worth taking a flier on Berrettini. Of course, having to potentially go through Mariano Navone, Alexander Zverev, Lorenzo Musetti and either Holger Rune or Tsitsipas will be tough, but Berrettini is a force on clay and he’s not being priced like one. The Italian is 63-23 on the dirt in his career and he won three titles on clay in 2024. Like Tsitsipas, Berrettini is a big server with a booming forehand. And while his backhand is a little shaky, slower courts give him the ability to run around it a little more. And even when he can’t, having some extra time to hit the backhand helps prevent him from dumping it into the net — which he does more than you’d like when not opting to slice it. Is this a long shot? Probably. But that has more to do with Berrettini’s draw than Berrettini himself. Berrettini is sixth on the ATP Tour in clay-court Elo rating. I think he’s extremely live in his matchup with Zverev, and I’ll probably continue to hit Berrettini in the futures market until he starts being treated like a top-10 player again.
Novak Djokovic To Win Quarter 2 (+140 – 1.5 units) – Over the weekend, Djokovic said that his eye still isn’t 100% and that he doesn’t have high expectations for himself in Monte-Carlo because he hasn’t had as much time as he’d like to prepare. I’m not buying it. Djokovic is fresh off a run to the final in Miami, has played at a high level for most of 2025 and beat Carlos Alcaraz in a practice set on the Monte-Carlo practice courts. All of that suggests he’s in good form. Djokovic also happens to have a reasonable draw. He’ll face the winner of Stan Wawrinka and Alejandro Tabilo in the second round, then it’s likely Grigor Dimitrov in the third round. I’m not worried about either one of those matches. And as long as Djokovic just gets to the quarterfinals, we should be able to monetize this ticket.
Alex de Minaur To Win Quarter 2 (+650 – 0.5 units) – I’m also taking de Minaur to win Quarter 2. The Australian has a losing record on clay on his career, but he’s 10-5 on the surface over the last 52 weeks. He has made real strides on the dirt, presumably because he’s a little more dangerous as a server and has added a little power to his forehand. De Minaur also happens to have a pretty reasonable draw. He’ll likely face Tomas Machac or Sebastian Baez in the second round, and I think he has the ability to beat either player. Then, we’re probably looking at a third-round match against Daniil Medvedev, Karen Khachanov or Alexandre Muller. It’s hard to worry about any of those. De Minaur is the exact type of player you don’t want to see in Monte-Carlo, as it’s going to be miserable trying to hit the ball by him. So, I’m taking him and hoping we get a meeting between him and Djokovic in the quarters.
Jack Draper To Win Quarter 3 (+375) – Draper hasn’t yet had a breakthrough on clay, but it’s coming. The Brit just won his first 1000-level title at Indian Wells, and those conditions are pretty clay-like. Draper’s serve is a weapon wherever he plays, and the same goes for his big backhand. But his topspin-heavy forehand gets a lot of jump, which made it lethal in the desert. I see it being similarly tough for opponents in Monte-Carlo. Draper also happened to get a pretty good draw. Of course, a meeting with Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals could be looming, and I always look for spots to back the Norwegian. But I see Draper being a really tough matchup for Ruud. The high-bouncing, lefty forehand going into the weaker Ruud backhand could decide the match.
Carlos Alcaraz To Win Monte-Carlo (+175 – 1.5 units) – I think there’s a good chance we see Alcaraz back in the winner’s circle next weekend. I know I said that before the Miami Open, but it wasn’t something I was willing to back. I am here. Returning to clay should do wonders for the Spaniard. He’s going to have more time to set up for his shots, which should mean less errors. He’s going to be relentless as a returner, as he normally is. And he’s also going to be able to drive opponents nuts with his variety. There’s a reason Alcaraz has a winning percentage of 80% at clay-court 1000s in his career, and that’s the highest winning percentage on the ATP Tour. Alcaraz also won the French Open last year despite the fact that he was dealing with an elbow injury that kept him off the dirt for most of the season.
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