Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 3, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: MIN is 19-2 (+15.00 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-125 vs. HOU)
* In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs. COL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for 8.01 units. The ROI on this angle is at +2.3% ROI. So far in the ’25 season, they are 6-1 for +4.02 units.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in the ’25 season, this system is 5-2 for +1.04 units.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs. COL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6% (in the ’25 season, they are 5-3 for +2.65 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units, an ROI of -7.2% (in the 2025 season, they are 4-1 for +3.20 units). This has been a very consistent angle.
System Match (FADE): 3-games – ARIZONA (+102 at NYY)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gotten an ROI of 1.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of two full baseball seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): HOUSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of the 2023 season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they had an atrocious ROI of -27%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1638-2094 (43.9%) for -182.25 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+100 at MIL), COLORADO (+180 at PHI)
Home teams that did score well in the last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3435-3026 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -478.46 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs. COL), MINNESOTA (-125 vs. HOU)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 970-845 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +7.74 units for backers and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-122 vs. BOS)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 501-423 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.91 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-122 vs. BOS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BOSTON +102 (+16 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MILWAUKEE -120 (+20 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-MIL OVER 8 (+0.7), HOU-MIN OVER 7 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), AZ-NYY UNDER 10 (-0.6)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.
(953) CINCINNATI (2-4) at (954) MILWAUKEE (2-4)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is 4-0 vs Milwaukee (+5.15 units)
Trend Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+100 at MIL)
(955) BOSTON (2-4) at (956) BALTIMORE (3-3)
Trend: BOS is 6-16 (-10.80 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
Trend Match: FADE BOSTON (*if they fall into this line range, +102 currently)
(957) HOUSTON (2-4) at (958) MINNESOTA (2-4)
Trend: MIN is 19-2 (+15.00 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-125 vs. HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow 4/4)
The post MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Thursday, April 3 appeared first on VSiN.
