Auburn vs. Michigan State March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Auburn Tigers take on the Michigan State Spartans in Elite Eight action.
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How to Watch Auburn vs. Michigan State
When: 5:05 pm ET on Sunday, March 30th
Where: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA
Watch: CBS
Odds for Auburn vs. Michigan State
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Auburn -6.5 (-102), Michigan State +6.5 (-118)
Total: Over 148.5 (-110), Under 148.5 (-110)
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Auburn vs. Michigan State Preview & Prediction
For a good portion of Auburn’s meeting with Michigan, the Wolverines looked like they had a real shot at knocking the top-seeded Tigers out of the NCAA Tournament. However, Auburn kicked things into gear in the second half, going on a 31-8 run that closed the curtain on Michigan’s season. Johni Broome, arguably the best player in college basketball, had 22 points, 16 rebounds and two steals in the game. Tashaad Pettiford also came up huge off the bench, pouring in 20 points and coming up with some big shots when the Tigers desperately needed them.
Michigan State’s game was even more dramatic. Ole Miss led by as many as 10 in the Sweet 16 matchup, and one can easily argue that the Rebels outplayed the Spartans for 90% of the game. But in the end, Michigan State was able to get the job done, with freshman Jase Richardson scoring 20 points on 6 for 8 shooting from the floor to give the Spartans the offensive punch it needed. All season long, Michigan State’s offense has been a bit of a concern, but Richardson got the Spartans home — with a little help from Coen Carr (15 points), Jaden Akins (13 points) and Tre Holloman (10 points).
We’re now getting an intriguing Elite Eight matchup, as it’s one that definitely favors Auburn when looking at advanced stats. Bart Torvik has Bruce Pearl’s Tigers second in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. His numbers also have Auburn as the third-best team in college basketball. Meanwhile, Michigan State is just 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, but the team is seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Spartans are Torvik’s 12th-best team in the country, but that doesn’t do the season-long gap justice. The top four teams in the nation were a cut above the rest this year. But does that mean it’s a foregone conclusion Auburn will win? Well, it is March. So, the answer to that would be “absolutely not.”
There are a lot of things Michigan State will be able to do to frustrate this Auburn team. For starters, the Spartans can slow things down and really try and muck this one up, hoping that they can play well enough defensively to make it a steal-able, one-possession game late. That’s the way this team is built to operate, and I don’t think it’s crazy to expect exactly that here. Michigan State is the second-best team in the nation when it comes to 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot only 28.0% from deep. Well, Auburn is 43rd in the country in 3PT% (36.6%) and the 3-ball is a huge part of this team’s offensive identity. So, if the Spartans can prevent the Tigers guards from getting hot, this thing should get interesting. And that’s especially true with Michigan State having some big, physical players to throw on Broome.
It’s just absolutely imperative that somebody on Michigan State steps up offensively. Anybody on Auburn can do it on any given night, but good shots have been harder to come by for Izzo’s group. This Spartans team can play as well as it wants defensively, but you can’t beat great teams without having a traceable source of efficient offense.
Richardson will very likely need to rise to the occasion again in the Elite Eight. Michigan State actually did play better offensively towards the end of the year, scoring at least 74 points in eight of its final 11 regular-season games. A lot of that had to do with the play of Richardson, who had at least 17 points in six of those games. Akins could also be the spark the Spartans need here. The senior shot only 29.5% from 3 this season, but he has proven he can make triples and he’s very experienced. It shouldn’t surprise anybody if he gets hot and gives his team some juice.
Don’t downplay the impact of the coaches in this game. Pearl is absolutely incredible at what he does, but there’s levels to this when it comes to March. Izzo has been to the Final Four eight times since becoming the head coach of Michigan State. He knows exactly what it will take for his team to find a way to win this game, and you should expect an awesome game plan from the Spartans right from the opening tip. Michigan State is 36-10 straight-up when seeded 4 or better in tournament games under Izzo, and the Spartans are also 21-7 SU against SEC opponents with the legend on the sidelines.
With regard to the total, the Under is 5-3 in the tournament games Auburn has played when seeded 4 or better under Pearl. On top of that, the Under is 16-9 when Auburn is favored by 6.5 to 12 points on a neutral court under Pearl. Despite that, the number for this one did go up a little once it become widely available.
Estimated Score: Auburn 75.7, Michigan State 70.8
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