MLB Best Bets Today March 27:
Happy MLB Opening Day! Well, unless you’re a fan of the Cubs or Dodgers. With those two teams playing in the Tokyo Series, we have 26 teams playing their first games of the season and 28 playing their first games in North America. The Rockies and Rays actually won’t get started until Friday.
The early part of the season is a different beast with starting pitchers still working their way into form and managers reluctant to push their guys too far. We have a lot of day games on Thursday as well, which makes sense with Opening Day festivities and the potential for some unsavory weather. I’ll try to get this out as early as I can when we have a lot of day games.
It would be wise to check out my stats glossary, as you’ll see a lot of those terms and the application of them in my handicapping. Also, check out my 30 MLB Team Previews and my list of roster updates since the previews are about a month or so old.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Happy Opening Day! Let’s do this.
Here are the MLB best bets today for March 27:
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (-110, 8)
4:10 p.m. ET
Logan Webb and Hunter Greene get things underway for their respective teams, as Greene was up to 84 pitches in his final Spring Training start on the 21st and the highly-durable Webb had 77 tosses. It was a tremendous Spring for Webb, who allowed six runs (four earned) on nine hits over 20.1 innings of work. Greene allowed 13 runs on 22 hits over 21 innings, but five came in one February start.
So, both guys threw the ball pretty well overall, but I am prioritizing Webb and his pitch efficiency in the season opener. Greene is virtually a lock to miss more bats, but he’s also more likely to give up walks and create run-scoring opportunities for the Giants, who picked up Willy Adames over the winter and should be able to better optimize their defense as a result with Tyler Fitzgerald at 2B. Matt Chapman remains an elite defender at 3B, so Webb has a full complement behind him on defense with his extreme ground ball rate.
I’m curious to see what the Giants look like after some front office shake-ups, as Buster Posey took over when Farhan Zaidi was fired. It seems like the Giants may look for more early-count contact this season in hopes of cutting down their strikeout rates. I think they’ll be more aggressive, much like Posey was in his career. The Giants were third in Spring Training homers with 47, as the conditions in Arizona absolutely helped, though they didn’t benefit the Reds nearly as much, as they hit 30. SF still struck out a lot, but I think Posey’s influence could lead to some offensive gains.
Cincinnati is missing one of their better hitters in catcher Tyler Stephenson and we’ll see if Spencer Steer gets the nod here after dealing with a shoulder issue late in camp. Steer is limited to DHing right now, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but Gavin Lux will likely be in LF with 39 games to his name out there, where he is -6 Defensive Runs Saved and -3 Outs Above Average.
The other potential advantage I like for the Giants here is their bullpen. The Reds are missing top reliever Alexis Diaz, who strained his hamstring. Most projection systems have every Cincinnati reliever with an ERA over 4.00, whereas the Giants will be one of the best bullpens in baseball again. Even if Webb and Greene cancel out, San Francisco has the better relief arms.
Pick: Giants -110
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals (-130, 7.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
AUTHOR’S NOTE: TANNER BIBEE HAS BEEN SCRATCHED DUE TO FOOD POISONING – NO BET.
AL Central rivals come together at Kauffman Stadium in this one, as the Guardians and Royals battle it out for the first of 13 head-to-head meetings. I am looking to fade the Royals this season, as I’ve taken a position on their season win total Under and I’m also looking for day-to-day spots to go against them. I think I’ve got one here.
You never want to read too much into Spring Training stats. Guys are working on things. The hitting conditions are really good. However, Cole Ragans is a guy that I’m worried about at this point. He had two major blow-ups in the Spring, giving up seven runs over 2.1 innings to the Cubs on March 1 and eight runs on 11 hits to the Athletics in his final Spring tune-up.
Unfortunately, we don’t have Statcast data for that game, in which Ragans only struck out one batter on 83 pitches. But, we have data for his previous start against the Rockies, in which he needed 83 pitches to get eight outs and allowed two runs on eight hits. In that game, his velocity was fine, but his spin rates were down significantly on all of his pitches. His last two fastballs were just 91.6 and 92 mph. Like I said, we don’t have Statcast data from his final outing against the A’s, but the stat line was pretty poor.
Per Eno Sarris, who put together some awesome pitcher rankings ($) for The Athletic, no starting pitcher lost more fastball velo from April to September than Ragans, who went from 96 innings in 2023 to 186.1 innings in 2024, plus 10 more in the postseason. He also had a sizable BB% spike late in the year, as he had a 10.8% BB% in August and an 11.6% BB% in September.
Meanwhile, Tanner Bibee had a nice Spring with a 1.88 ERA. He’s brought back the sinker/two-seamer that he threw in college in hopes of inducing more ground balls and keeping the ball in the park a little more effectively. Not that he has a major problem with it, as he had a 10.6% HR/FB% last season, but his fastball grades as merely an average pitch and a two-seamer with a different plane that goes in on righties and away from lefties might be a great complement to his cutter if he can tunnel it properly. It could be a good way to neutralize his platoon split, as lefties had a .460 SLG against him.
Both of these bullpens should be good, but Cleveland’s has the potential to be elite again. At a plus-money price with a bullpen advantage and a matchup against a starter who could be great, but seems to be potentially working through something, the Guardians are worthy of a look today.
Pick: Guardians +110 (NO BET – BIBEE SCRATCHED)
New York Mets at Houston Astros (-130, 8)
4:10 p.m. ET
Interleague action at The Juice Box brings the Mets and Astros together to begin the year. The Mets lineup looks a lot different with Juan Soto up near the top of it and hopes are high for this offense to take care of its affairs and help out a pitching staff that looks like a bit of a high-variance group, including today’s starter, Clay Holmes.
My focus in this game, though, is on the Mets’ matchup against Framber Valdez. Valdez is about as extreme of a ground ball guy as you can get. While he has a major defensive upgrade at 1B in Christian Walker, who is dealing with an oblique injury, but should be in the lineup, he has a downgrade at 3B with Isaac Paredes in place of Alex Bregman. Not only that, but SS Jeremy Pena saw his defensive numbers drop and actually carried negative defensive value last season per Statcast.
Without Bregman, my expectation is that Pena will need to show more range going to his right, which could leave a little more room up the middle against Valdez and the other Astros starters. 2B Brendan Rogers was a below average defender last year at the position. So, we’ll see if it’s him or Mauricio Dubon, who is pretty average at the position.
The Mets were a top-five offense by wRC+ against lefties last season. Not all of their top performers are back, as Jose Iglesias and J.D. Martinez are gone, but they certainly have enough platoon options to deploy here and could have as many as seven right-handed sticks in the lineup. Historically, righties have fared a little bit better with a .229 BA compared to a .215 BA. Valdez is typically stingy, but I think the defense has been downgraded this season, including the Jose Altuve experience in the outfield.
Pick: Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115)
Minnesota Twins (-115, 7.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
4:15 p.m. ET
Major concerns have emerged about Sonny Gray, who said that he had a pain-killing injection in his right flexor tendon last season that delayed his progress in getting ready for this season. Gray’s velo has been down this Spring and the results followed, as he gave up 20 runs on 23 hits in 14.1 innings of work with eight home runs allowed. He did post a 17/6 K/BB ratio, so he was pretty good about throwing strikes, but there weren’t necessarily a lot of quality strikes in the mix.
The Twins had a top-10 offense against righties last season by wRC+ and I’m expecting them to be good in that split again this year. Gray allowed a .462 SLG last season to lefties and there is one matchup that I have my eye on in this game. It is Matt Wallner, who will bat leadoff for the Twins, up against Gray.
Wallner has a career 167 wRC+ against lefties with a .406 wOBA. Those are really special numbers in that split, as he has a .277/.396/.555 slash against southpaws. His bugaboo is that he strikes out a lot, but I don’t really see Gray’s stuff being all that explosive right now to generate a lot of whiffs against a Major League lineup.
Wallner is +450 to hit 1+ HR today, so I think that’s worthy of a half-unit investment, given that it is a bit of a muggy day at Busch Stadium and Gray gave up a bunch of long balls in Florida during Spring Training. But, I also like a more reasonable bet of Over 0.5 Total Bases at -150 for Wallner.
This is also a line move that I agree with, but Pablo Lopez looked a bit shaky in the Spring himself, so I’ll stay off the Twins moneyline.
Picks: Matt Wallner Over 0.5 Total Bases (-150); Wallner 1+ HR (+450 – half-unit bet)
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