Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 25, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 58-48-1 (54.7%). Here are today’s results:
– MEM-UTA OVER 240.5
Scheduling situation, team strength system #5, Makinen effective strength rating projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Over
– CLEVELAND (-6.5 at POR)
Extreme stat system #16 and recent head-to-head trend favor CLE + scheduling trend fades POR
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Favorites are 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS in the last 20 of the Spurs-Pistons head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10 vs. SAS)
* NEW YORK is 24-8 Under the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on 2 Days Rest
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-NYK (o/u at 225)
* ATLANTA is on 11-34 SU and 11-33-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+8 at HOU)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, GOLDEN STATE, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, NEW YORK, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – DETROIT ML, NEW YORK ML, HOUSTON ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ATL-HOU, CLE-POR
UNDER – SAS-DET
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ORL-CHA, GSW-MIA
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 192-131 SU and 187-128 ATS (59.4%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
3/25: MEMPHIS at Utah
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-10 at UTA)
* Over the total was 118-83 (58.7%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
3/25: Over the total in UTAH-MEMPHIS
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-UTA (o/u at 240.5)
* Under the total was 128-102-1 (55.7%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/25: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-SAC (o/u at 232)
* Over the total was 62-54 (53.4%) over last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/25: OVER the total in CHARLOTTE-ORLANDO
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-CHA (o/u at 212.5)
* ATLANTA is on 11-34 SU and 11-33-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
3/25: FADE ATLANTA at Houston
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+8 at HOU)
* CHARLOTTE is 35-89 SU and 49-71-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
3/25: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Orlando
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+5 vs. ORL)
* PORTLAND is 34-70 SU and 42-62 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
3/25: Fade PORTLAND vs. Cleveland
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+6.5 vs. CLE)
* NEW YORK is 24-8 UNDER the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on 2 Days Rest
3/25: Under the total in NEW YORK-DALLAS
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-NYK (o/u at 225)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 251-46 SU but just 138-153-6 ATS (47.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): DETROIT (-10.5 vs. SAS), NEW YORK (-10 vs. DAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 106-88 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 214-169 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 270-210 (56.3%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAS-DET (o/u at 234), DAL-NYK (o/u at 225), MEM-UTA (o/u at 240.5), OKC-SAC (o/u at 232)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 244-132 SU but 172-196-8 ATS (46.7%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-35-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-10.5 vs. SAS)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 274-144 SU but just 177-228-13 ATS (43.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 at SAC)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 307-260 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-DET (o/u at 234)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 156-100 SU and 147-102-7 ATS (59%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-6.5 at POR)
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 190-75 SU and 140-122-3 ATS (53.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 vs. SAS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 71-18 SU and 50-36-3 ATS (58.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 at SAC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +5 (+2.3)
2. PORTLAND +6.5 (+1.2)
3. SACRAMENTO +10 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -5 (+0.9)
2. DETROIT -10 (+0.7)
3. NEW YORK -10 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +10 (+5.7)
2. SAN ANTONIO +10 (+4.3)
3. MIAMI +5 (+2.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -6.5 (+1.1)
2. MEMPHIS -10 (+0.7)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEM-UTA OVER 240.5 (+2.0)
2. CLE-POR OVER 229 (+1.2)
3. GSW-MIA OVER 217 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-SAC UNDER 232 (-2.0)
2. ORL-CHA UNDER 212.5 (-1.3)
3. SAS-DET UNDER 234 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). CHARLOTTE +5 (+2.2)
UTAH +10 (+2.2)
3. ATLANTA +8 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT -10 (+1.9)
2. GOLDEN STATE -5 (+1.1)
3. NEW YORK -10 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-POR OVER 229 (+3.4)
2. SAS-DET OVER 234 (+3.3)
3. ATL-HOU OVER 235 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-SAC UNDER 232 (-3.0)
2. ORL-CHA UNDER 212.5 (-1.3)
3. DAL-NYK UNDER 225 (-0.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(563) SAN ANTONIO at (564) DETROIT
* Favorites are 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS in the last 20 of SAS-DET head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(565) ORLANDO at (566) CHARLOTTE
* ORLANDO is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games versus Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
* Under the total is 9-2-1 in the last 12 of head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(569) DALLAS at (570) NEW YORK
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head matchups between DAL and NYK in New York, but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(571) ATLANTA at (572) HOUSTON
* Over the total has converted in five straight head-to-head ATL-HOU meetings in Houston
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(573) MEMPHIS at (574) UTAH
* Over the total is 12-1 in the last 13 head-to-head games between MEM and UTA at Utah
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(575) OKLAHOMA CITY at (576) SACRAMENTO
* Favorites are 13-2 SU and 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 of OKC-SAC head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
(577) CLEVELAND at (578) PORTLAND
* Favorites have covered six straight ATS when CLE visits Portland
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
The post NBA Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Tuesday, March 25 appeared first on VSiN.
