College Basketball Mid-Major Conference Tournament Betting Trends:
Many college basketball bettors and fans consider the madness of March more than just the NCAA tournament. They believe the entire month showcases great basketball action and not just the Big Dance, as the conference tourneys, even the mid-majors, should get the blood pumping. I know many colleagues in the industry that prefer the next two weeks because of the sheer volume of games, as well as the familiarity of opponents that the conference tournament weeks bring. In fact, some professional bettors spend much more time, resources, and bankroll on the conference tourneys than they do on the NCAAs, NIT, CIT, and CBI combined, and for those of you who might behave similarly, I offer up the following betting trends for every conference tournament about to occur.
This will be a three-part series, with the mid-major conferences starting tournament games on dates of this week (Tuesday, 3/4, to be exact) included in this article, and those playing next week (starting 3/11) in the next piece. The third and final part will include all of the key info for the Power Five conference tournaments, which begins on March 11th.
The angles that I have chosen to look at focused on three key areas, with combinations of each in some cases. Those areas were bye games, rounds, and line ranges.
As a general thought to get you started, bettors should understand the value of having a bye in conference tournaments is typically significant, especially when they are believed to be the better team. In fact, conference tournament favorites off a bye are 312-106 SU and 219-191 ATS (53.4%) over the last five seasons against teams that played earlier in that tournament. That is a winning wager without anything else considered. Remember that when you try to project chances for upsets earlier in these tournaments, especially if you are led to believe the underdog may have picked up momentum from beating a lesser team in a “play-in” type of game.
Note: All of these betting systems included games heading into the respective 2025 tournaments.
The leagues covered in this first piece include:
AMERICA EAST – Starts March 8
ATLANTIC SUN – Starts March 2
BIG SKY – Starts March 8
BIG SOUTH – Starts March 5
COLONIAL ATHLETIC – Starts March 7
HORIZON LEAGUE – Starts March 4
MISSOURI VALLEY – Starts March 6
NORTHEAST – Starts March 5
OHIO VALLEY – Starts March 5
PATRIOT LEAGUE – Starts March 4
SOUTHERN – Starts March 7
SOUTHLAND – Starts March 9
SUMMIT – Starts March 5
SUN BELT – Starts March 4
WEST COAST – Starts March 6
For my latest strength ratings, including Power Ratings, Effective Strength indicators, Bettors’ Ratings, Recent Ratings, and Schedule Strengths, visit the NCAAMBB TEAM POWER RANKINGS page on VSiN.com, sortable by conference, or see our special conference by conference tournament pages.
America East
Key Trend(s)
· Double-digit road underdogs in the quarterfinal round of the America East tourney are on a 9-4-1 ATS (69.2%) surge
· Small favorites of -4.5 points or less are 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in the America East tournament since 2015.
· Eight of the last 10 (77.8%) America East championship games went Under the total
Atlantic Sun
Key Trend(s)
· Single-digit underdogs in the Atlantic Sun tournament are 24-25 SU but 32-15-2 ATS (68.1%) since 2014, while double-digit favorites are on a 33-2 SU and 18-15-2 ATS (54.5%) surge in that same span.
· Home teams in the Atlantic Sun semifinal games are 13-7 SU, but just 7-13 ATS (35%) in their last 20 tries
Big Sky
Key Trend(s)
· Single-digit favorites in the Big Sky tourney are on an amazing 52-16 SU and 42-25-1 ATS (62.7%) run since 2015, including 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS (77.8%) in the title contest. However, this group was just 2-6 ATS, so perhaps we could be witnessing a shift.
· Lower totals of 140 or less in the Big Sky tourney have gone Over at a 20-7 (74.1%) rate since 2016.
Big South
Key Trend(s)
· Favorites over 7 points or more have been very successful in the Big South tourney since 2014, going 30-5 SU and 20-15 ATS (57.1%)
· In the quarterfinal round of the Big South tournament, teams off a first-round bye taking on teams that already played are on a 22-7 SU and 18-10-1 ATS (64.3%) run, including 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS in last 14.
Coastal Athletic
Key Trend(s)
· Small favorites of -4.5 points or fewer are on a strong run in the CAA tourney, boasting a 31-13 SU and 28-13-3 ATS (68.3%) since 2016.
· Teams off a bye taking on teams that already played in the CAA tourney are on a 23-4 SU and 16-11 ATS (59.3%) run over the last 11 years.
Horizon League
Key Trend(s)
· Teams playing as underdogs of 6 points or more and having played already in the Horizon League tournament are on an amazing 10-8 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) run against teams that enjoyed a bye! This is one of the few conferences where having a bye has not proven advantageous.
· Ten of the last 14 Horizon League Tournament semifinal games have gone Under the total (71.4%). Both games went Over in 2024 though, in what was a very high-scoring tourney season for the Horizon, with eight of 10 games overall going Over.
· Home favorites priced at 5 points or fewer are on an incredible 14-0 SU and ATS (100%) streak in the Horizon League tourney since 2014, including Oakland’s 75-65 win over Purdue Fort Wayne last year.
Missouri Valley
Key Trend(s)
· Only two of the 42 underdogs of 6.5 points or more in the MVC tourney since 2014 have won outright and have gone 13-29 ATS (31%) in those games.
· The MVC tourney is typically a low-scoring bracket, and over the last 10 seasons, on totals of 131.5 or higher, Under is on a 39-21 (65%) run.
· Prior to the Indiana State (-3) 84-80 loss to Drake a year ago, favorites in the MVC tournament championship game had won the prior 12 games outright and were 11-0 ATS since 2013!
Northeast
Key Trend(s)
· Overall favorites of 4.5 points or less are just 6-14 ATS (30%) in their last 20 Northeast Conference tourney games
· Fifteen of the last 20 quarterfinal games in the Northeast Conference tourney went Under the total (75%), including all four games a year ago.
· Underdogs in the Northeast Conference tourney championship game are on a 15-3 ATS (83.3%) run, including 12 outright upsets. In the 2024 title game, Wagner (+8) upset Merrimack, 54-47.
Ohio Valley
Key Trend(s)
· Teams that have had the advantage of an earlier round bye are on a 20-4 SU and 15-9 ATS (60%) surge in the OVC bracket.
· Totals in the 150s in the Ohio Valley tournament have gone 10-2 Under (83.3%) in the last 12 chances.
· Eleven of the last 16 OVC tournament semifinal games have gone Under the total (68.8%).
· Ohio Valley Conference title game underdogs are on a 12-2 ATS (85.7%) run, but Little Rock (+4.5) did lose to Morehead State last year, 69-55.
Patriot League
Key Trend(s)
· The quarterfinal round of the Patriot League tourney has trended Over on totals, 29-11 (72.5%) in the last 40.
· Patriot League tourney games with totals above 139 have trended sharply Over recently, going 31-10-1 Over the total (75.6%) since 2014. Only one of the nine games from 2024 met the criteria, and it won.
Southern Conference
Key Trend(s)
· Single-digit favorites in the opening round of the Southern Conference tournament are on a 21-8 SU and ATS (72.4%) run since 2011.
· The Southern Conference tourney semifinals are on a 15-7 Over the total run (68.2%).
Southland
Key Trend(s)
· The Southland Conference tourney has been a favorite-dominated bracket of late, with small favorites of 4.5 points or fewer doing particularly well, going 27-12 SU and 24-15 ATS (61.5%) since 2014.
· Higher totaled games of 142 or higher have trended significantly Under of late in the Southland tourney, 24-8 (75%) since 2017.
· The favorite in the Southland Conference tourney title game is on a 13-3 SU and 11-4-1 ATS (73.3%) run dating back to 2008.
Summit League
Key Trend(s)
· All eight games of the 2024 Summit League tournament went Under the total (100%)
· Historically, the most extreme of totals in the Summit League tournament of late have trended Under as well, with totals >=153.5 at 13-4 Under (76.5%) since 2016 and totals <=130 at 9-2 Under (81.8%) since 2014.
· Favorites in the Summit League have had a strong run over the last five years, going 31-7 SU and 21-15 ATS (58.3%) overall.
Sun Belt
Key Trend(s)
· With one of the most unusual brackets of any league around, getting a bye in the Sun Belt tournament hasn’t been very advantageous recently, as teams that did are 16-8 SU but 9-15 ATS (37.5%) against teams that didn’t over the last five years.
· Small favorites in the Sun Belt have been money of late, as those laying 4.5 points or less are 33-14 SU and 30-16-1 ATS (65.2%) dating back to 2016.
· Totals above 146 have trended Under of late in the Sun Belt tournament, 18-7 Under the total (72%) since 2017.
West Coast
Key Trend(s)
· West Coast teams that had a bye in earlier round(s) are on a tremendous 26-5 SU and 19-11-1 ATS (63.3%) run.
· WCC favorites in the semifinal and championship rounds are on a 21-12 ATS (63.6%) run.
· The sweet spot for betting favorites in the WCC tourney is in the -6 to -12 line range, 24-3 SU and 21-5-1 ATS (80.8%) in the last 27.
· West Coast Conference tourney totals of 147 or higher have been explosive lately, going Over the total at a 20-11-1 (64.5%) rate while producing about 155.8 PPG on average.
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