Athletics Season Preview 2025 Odds and Predictions

Athletics 2025 preview

Despite the mandate from Major League Baseball to refer to the team as simply “Athletics”, I’m going to call them the Sacramento Athletics. Because that’s where the team formerly from Oakland will play the 2025 season. And it truly is a huge deal. Not only because a team relocated for the first time since 2005 when the Expos moved from Montreal to Washington D.C. and became the Nationals, but because we are talking about a dramatically different park factor and set of conditions.

It was no secret that Oakland Coliseum was not only an unenjoyable place to play because of the facilities, but also because of the hitting conditions. Well, unless you were a pitcher. Sacramento will be much different. The average temperature is just the beginning.

There was also an absurd amount of foul territory at Oakland Coliseum which, of course, was a dual-purpose venue where the Raiders also played. Then there was also the marine air layer that cuts down fly ball distance. (Here’s the detailed read if you want it.)

I’ll preface this by saying that it is hardly an apples-to-apples comparison and may not matter at all… The Sacramento River Cats are the Triple-A affiliate of the San Francisco Giants. They actually didn’t have a ton of success at home, scoring just 346 runs in 75 games (4.6 R/G). But, 4.6 R/G was tied for the lowest in the league at home and that’s still a pretty hefty number. They did only hit 68 homers. The pitchers had a 3.56 ERA at home to lead the league in that split. So, this isn’t going to be a band box or a launching pad in all likelihood, but it will be a much friendlier venue to hitters. The outfield wall dimensions are similar, but the normal foul territory, warmer weather, and other atmospheric factors will help.

That being said, the marine layer did keep Oakland warmer at night relative to the high temperatures, so we may not see a massive difference in night games, but I do think we will absolutely see one. Nevertheless, at least the A’s have a little bit more stability this season without as many uncertainties hanging over their heads.

2025 Athletics Odds

(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 24)

World Series: +25000

AL Pennant: +10000

AL West: +3000

Win Total: 71.5 (-110/-110)

Make Playoffs: Yes +850 / No -1400

Athletics Preview: Offense

Evaluating last season for Oakland may not shed a ton of light on what we can expect this season, but there are a few worthwhile takeaways. The first is that the A’s hit 196 homers, which was a good increase from the 171 that they hit in 2023 and a really good increase from the 137 that they hit in 2022.

As you would expect, some home/road splits were present, as the A’s batted just .232/.300/.381 at home with a .298 wOBA and a 101 wRC+. They hit 86 homers at home compared to 110 on the road, where only five teams hit more round-trippers. They batted .234/.303/.404 with a .308 wOBA and a 101 wRC on the road. So, really, the only difference was the power spike. They still didn’t walk much and still struck out too much, but had more favorable results on their batted balls.

I won’t pretend to get into a hitter’s mindset, but obviously you would have a different philosophy and different goals hitting in a more neutral, or even favorable, hitting environment. You might be more aggressive. You might lock in on pitches and zones a bit more trying to drive the ball because you know the reward is higher. Mentally, I think Oakland hitters will be a little more relaxed and probably a little more confident. I’m not sure how to quantify that, but it has to be a positive.

It is very important to point out that Brent Rooker really skewed the offensive numbers for the A’s. Rooker hit 39 homers and slashed .293/.365/.562 with a .392 wOBA and a 164 wRC+. The only hitters qualified for the batting title with a higher wRC+ were Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Bobby Witt Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Rooker’s .362 BABIP was third behind Seiya Suzuki and Judge. Even with his incredible contact authority metrics, he’s highly, highly unlikely to run a .362 again. And he did so after having a .348 BABIP in 2023.

In total, only seven A’s hitters had a wRC+ of 102 or better. Only four of them were everyday players. Shea Langeliers hit 29 homers. Lawrence Butler hit 22 with a huge breakout season and JJ Bleday hit 20 with a high walk rate and a lot of bat-to-ball upside. One productive hitter was Tyler Soderstrom, who debuted in 2023 after a decent season at Triple-A. He was bad in 138 MLB PA that year, but posted a 114 wRC+ in 213 PA as a 22-year-old and actually showcased some really good contact authority metrics himself this past season.

I’m really fascinated by Oakland’s offense for this season. They’ll still strike out a lot, but they were top 10 in fly ball percentage and HR/FB%. They crept towards the top 10 in Hard Hit% and finished ninth in Barrel%. The park factor upgrade truly is a big deal here. Rooker is also the elder statesman of this lineup after turning 30 last season, except for days when 32-year-old Seth Brown is out there. I wouldn’t call this a deep offense by any means, but there are some young, toolsy dudes.

One of them who had a terrible season is Zach Gelof. Gelof, who slashed .267/.337/.504 in 300 PA to begin his MLB career, only batted .211/.270/.362 last season in 547 PA. Pitchers adjusted to him and he didn’t adjust back, but the 25-year-old has hit at every level and proved that he could hit MLB pitching. He strikes out a ton and has major holes in his swing, but he’s a good fielder and baserunner and I think the bat could be better. He hit .324 with a .597 SLG in 2023 against fastballs. He hit .243 with a .416 SLG against fastballs last season.

The A’s could also get an infusion of offense sometime this summer from fourth overall pick Nick Kurtz, who is pretty close to MLB-ready after three seasons at Wake Forest and 12 games in the minors for the A’s to finish last season. Jacob Wilson is more likely to start the season with the ballclub after finishing last season with them. He only posted a .281 wOBA in 103 PA, but has hit well at every level of the minors.

Athletics Preview: Pitching

Similarly, the A’s won’t have the benefits provided by the Coliseum this season. But, this was a pitching staff that was 13th in ERA at 3.83 and ninth in FIP at 3.81. They also ranked fourth behind the Padres, Giants, and Rockies in average fastball velocity, thanks in large part to flame-throwing closer Mason Miller.

That bullpen did A LOT of heavy lifting on last season’s numbers. The starting staff ranked 26th in ERA at 4.76 and also FIP at 4.54. There weren’t a lot of strikeouts from the starters and that is the biggest reason for the FIP numbers. As for the ERA, it just wasn’t that talented of a staff, not to mention the A’s needed 13 different starters and their five most frequent starters posted ERAs of 4.38, 5.11, 4.64, 5.72, and 6.54.

This group looks a lot different this season. Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs are going to be at the top of the rotation if healthy. The Athletics jumped on Severino quickly, signing him to a two-year deal plus an option on Dec. 5. The Springs trade came about a week and a half later. Both guys are gambles, but I like both gambles from the A’s, who are typically pretty risk-averse.

Severino was excellent for the Mets in his first full season since 2018. He threw 182 innings with a 3.91 ERA and a 4.21 FIP. He fits the velocity benchmarks that the A’s are looking for, though he hasn’t parlayed his mid-to-upper 90s fastball into strikeouts over the last two seasons. With the Mets, Severino had great success staying off the barrel and out of the hard-hit zones. He’s more projectable than Springs, who has only pitched 49 MLB innings over the last two seasons and had decreased velocity last year in his return.

But, Springs is a guy with a 3.39 ERA and a 3.64 FIP in his career, even though it started pretty slow with the Rangers and Red Sox before finding a home in Tampa. The only problem is that he’s worked more than 44.2 innings just once in his MLB career. He’s said to be healthy. We’ll see.

I don’t own much JP Sears stock anymore, but I’ll be selling that with the ballpark move. His low K% coupled with a lot of strikes and very mid command mean his HR rate is likely to climb. As it is, Sears has allowed 70 HR in 423 career innings. I don’t know what to expect from Osvaldo Bido, who is all but assured a rotation spot with Luis Medina and Ken Waldichuk sidelined. He had a 3.41 ERA with a 2.72 xERA and a 3.36 FIP in 63.1 innings at the MLB level for the A’s last season, but struggled badly through the upper minors and with the Pirates.

I do think somebody will pop out of Mitch Spence, Brady Basso, and Joey Estes. Spence and Estes have the best chances, as Spence threw 151.1 innings with a 4.58 ERA, 4.14 xERA, and 4.21 FIP last season, but he was terrible on the road and the park factor difference at home scares me. Estes was pressed into a ton of duty as a 22-year-old with 127.2 innings of work. His control is awesome. His command is not and he’s an extreme fly ball guy. Basso has not been able to stay healthy, but he has the most bat-missing potential of the three.

The A’s will be missing one key piece from last season’s bullpen after the trade of Lucas Erceg to Kansas City at the Trade Deadline. He’s not the only one, though, as Austin Adams and Scott Alexander are also gone, taking 101 combined appearances with them. Even with limited financial resources, the A’s brought in Jose Leclerc for $10 million to be the primary setup guy to Miller. Leclerc had a 4.32 ERA last season in what was a bit of a down year in that respect, but his 3.48 FIP was his lowest in a full season since 2018, so there’s hope for a bounceback effort.

Athletics Player To Watch

OF/DH Brent Rooker

Rooker hit 39 homers and had a career year, even though he had offseason surgery less than a week after the final game to fix a muscle in his right forearm. There were a lot of swings and misses in the profile, but some very authoritative contact. Rooker ranked in the 96th percentile in xwOBA, 97th in Barrel%, 92nd in Hard Hit%, and demolished fastballs for the second straight season. He also had a .540 SLG on breaking balls.

While I do think that the park factor might be a tad overblown going from Oakland to Sacramento, it will help all of the hitters, but not equally. Rooker is 30/1 to hit the most homers. He had 15 at home and 24 on the road last season. He does strike out a lot and walk a good amount, so that’s a reservation, but he hit lefties and righties equally well and I think he has room to get even a little better.

40+ HR for Rooker at DraftKings is +150. 45+ is +300. 50+ is +550. I think he has a legitimate shot at pushing for 50, given that he was playing hurt late in the season and the park factor difference. Rooker had a season-low 39.2% FB% in September and I bet that had a lot to do with the forearm injury, since he had an extension muscle repaired.

Athletics Season Win Total Odds & Prediction

The A’s Over their season win total was one of my favorite bets last season and it came through easily. After winning 69 games, more improvement is expected based on this line. I do really like the Severino and Springs additions. I don’t know that they’re enough, given Springs’ health history and the same with Severino. The park factor change is very bad for Sears and other pitch-to-contact guys.

The A’s were 38-43 at home with a -54 run differential and 31-50 on the road with a -57 run differential. I have always thought that players just didn’t really want to play in Oakland, especially being part of a West Coast swing with stops in Anaheim or Seattle or Los Angeles or Denver or Phoenix on the way or somewhere else. I felt like that was something of an equalizer for the A’s. One that they don’t have anymore. Sacramento is a minor league stadium with minor league facilities that have been upgraded as much as they can, but it’s still better than sewage backing up in the clubhouse.

If the Butler bump and a youngster like Wilson are legit, combined with a Gelof redemption arc, they’ll go Over this total. But, I really don’t like the pitching. Not enough to make this a pick, but I have a more pessimistic outlook than an optimistic one.

Slight Lean: Under 71.5

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