Forecasting Super Bowl LIX Score and Individual Stats Props:
The Super Bowl is the best time to take advantage of a ton of prop betting options that aren’t available for the average NFL game. Bettors can wager on specific play results, team and individual stats and plenty more. I’m here to address the individual stats option, applying some forecasting methods to the upcoming Kansas City Chiefs-Philadelphia Eagles matchup.
Having served as an oddsmaker for more than 10 years, I’ve used these methods in my submissions for some of the world’s most noteworthy sportsbooks. Rest assured, the numbers you will see below are my projections and weren’t shared with any other industry people on either side of the counter.
I have done this the last four years, and the score projections pointed to a Buccaneers outright win over the Chiefs in 2021, then a tight Rams in 2022, as well as Unders on both game totals. In other words, on sides and totals, I was 4-for-4. However, the 2023 numbers did project a Philadelphia win, and for as much as the Eagles outplayed the Chiefs for most of the game, that didn’t happen. Still, because the yardage and play totals had the look of a game that the Eagles should have won, most of my prop projections did very well. In last year’s game, I nearly pegged the score exactly, projecting a 26-21 Chiefs win over the 49ers when it finished 25-22. Both the side and total won, meaning I am officially 6-2 (75%). Hopefully this year’s projections send you in the right direction as well.
I will start by projecting the scores, time of possession and yardage statistics for Super Bowl LIX, then expand into the individual players and their projected output based on these overall numbers. For enhanced accuracy, I used only the last 10 meaningful games for each team, ignoring the regular-season finales for the Chiefs and Eagles, who rested numerous starters.
Let’s start by looking at overall projections for the game, using my Effective Stats method as the basis for calculation. This method takes into account the team’s performance against the weighted averages of its opponents. In other words, the strength of schedule is built in.
Overall Game Score Using Effective Score Calculations
To show you an example of how I calculate the Effective Score projections based upon the last 10 analyzed games, here are the last 10 game Effective Points For/Against for both teams. I will only show the 10-game numbers for this first calculation to illustrate how I’ve done it:
Kansas City Effective Offensive Points for the last 10 games: 19.51, 21.30, 22.18, 17.35, 24.33, 19.33, 28.39, 33.23, 24.18, 32.45
Philadelphia Effective Offensive Points for the last 10 games: 25.47, 37.86, 26.32, 16.27, 30.94, 32.32, 37.20, 24.72, 28.65, 53.87
Using my forecast model, here are the Effective Offensive Points projections for Super Bowl LIX:
Kansas City: 31.56
Philadelphia: 39.61
Applying the same statistical methods for the defensive performances…
Kansas City Effective Defensive Points for the last 10 games: 12.89, 22.18, 30.04, 20.40, 16.44, 10.15, 19.88, 10.23, 14.65, 21.44
Philadelphia Effective Defensive Points for the last 10 games: 14.89, 20.65, 14.23, 17.80, 13.30, 29.79, 5.21, 8.43, 22.71, 19.03
Using the same forecast model, here are the Effective Defensive Points projections for SB LIX:
Kansas City: 15.08
Philadelphia: 16.65
I, along with a few of my statistical colleagues in the industry, typically estimate that about two-thirds of the “scoring output” is dictated by the offenses. Using that ratio, the score projection would be:
Last 10 Games Effective Scoring Forecast:
Kansas City 26.59
Philadelphia 31.43
The total points of 58.02 is significantly higher than the actual total of 49.5, and the Eagles would be expected to be almost a five-point favorite. This obviously dramatically exceeds the actual line being offered in which Philly is an underdog. Incidentally, this model has projected the underdog to win outright twice in four years, first when Tampa Bay upset Kansas City and last year when the Chiefs edged the 49ers.
We’ll see if it changes using an Effective Yards Per Play method for calculating the score.
Overall Game Score using Effective Yardage Calculations
Overall Time of Possession/Forecasted Scrimmage Plays
Kansas City’s Effective Time of Possession forecast: 30.05 minutes
Philadelphia’s Effective Time of Possession forecast: 32.28 minutes
Naturally, we can’t have more than 60 minutes projected for Super Bowl LIX. Adjusted for a 60-minute game, here are the forecasts:
Kansas City: 28.93 minutes (or 28:56)
Philadelphia: 31.07 minutes (or 31:04)
Over the last 10 meaningful games, Kansas City has averaged 2.03 plays per minute of possession, while Philadelphia has averaged 1.92 plays per minute. Thus, the expected number of plays run by each team in Super Bowl LIX would be as follows:
Kansas City: 58.7 plays
Philadelphia: 59.7 plays
Moving now to the Effective Yards per Play calculations for the last 10 games, using the same method I did for the scoring, here are the game forecasts for Super Bowl LIX:
Kansas City Offensive Yards per Play Forecast: 5.69
Philadelphia Offensive Yards per Play Forecast: 6.06
Kansas City Defensive Yards per Play Forecast: 5.86
Philadelphia Defensive Yards per Play Forecast: 5.32
By the way, before going on to any final yardage calculation, I must interject and share that the Kansas City defensive yardage forecast is 0.87 YPP higher than it was a year ago. The Chiefs were playing far better defense going into last year’s game than they are now. Something to watch …
Using the two-thirds offense, one-third defense formula, here are the forecasted total yards per play for Super Bowl LIX:
Kansas City: 5.57 YPP
Philadelphia 5.99 YPP
Thus, the TOTAL YARDAGE PROJECTIONS based on plays run multiplied by expected yards per play would be as follows:
Kansas City: 327.0 total yards
Philadelphia: 357.6 total yards
Applying Effective Yards per Point totals for the teams obtained over the last 10 meaningful games this season using the same two-thirds offense, one-third defense ratio, the score forecasted with the yardage method would be:
Last 10 Games Effective Yardage Score Forecast:
Kansas City 19.8
Philadelphia 24.24
This projection is much lower on the total than the score method, and in this one, Philadelphia would be a bit lesser favorite of 4.4 points. It indicates that the Eagles would win the yardage battle by about 30 yards. This has the yards-per-point component built into it, so turnovers are a part of that. This method really highlights how well both defenses have played lately in making teams work for points.
Projecting the Team Stats
These teams likely will stick with the recipe that got them to the Super Bowl. Using the assumptions made above that Kansas City would total 327.0 yards on 58.7 plays and Philadelphia would gain 357.6 yards on 59.7 plays, the number of runs and passes for each team would be broken up as follows:
Kansas City runs: 26.2 runs (Effective Run% 44.6%)
Kansas City passes: 32.5 passes (Effective Pass% 55.4%)
Philadelphia runs: 34.0 runs (Effective Run% 56.9%)
Philadelphia passes: 25.7 passes (Effective Pass% 43.1%)
Using the consistent two-thirds offense, one-third defense rules that I’ve applied, here are the expected rushing and passing yards per attempt and total yards for each team:
Kansas City: 3.63 YPR for 95.2 Yards Rushing
Philadelphia: 5.95 YPR for 202.3 Yards Rushing
Kansas City: 7.13 PYA for 231.8 Yards Passing (248.1 accounted for QB before 2.5 sacks projected)
Philadelphia: 6.04 PYA for 155.3 Yards Passing (172.9 accounted for QB before 2.7 sacks projected)
With Effective Completion Percentages of KC 65.8% and PHI 66.9%, the expected number of completions would be:
Kansas City: 19.7 completions (on 30.0 actual throws)
Philadelphia: 15.4 completions (on 23.0 actual throws)
You now have all of the key team stat projections I will use below for forecasting the individual contributions to those totals.
Projecting the Individual Stats
Quarterback Passing Stats
I’ve basically already laid out the projected stats for the quarterbacks above. Here they are redisplayed with the actual prop odds according to DraftKings (DK) as of Tuesday, January 28 and the projected wager:
Completions:
Patrick Mahomes (KC) – projection 19.7 (DK odds: 24) – UNDER
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – projection 15.4 (DK odds: 19) – UNDER
Attempts:
Patrick Mahomes (KC) – projection 30 (DK odds: 36) – UNDER
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – projection 23 (DK odds: 26.5) – UNDER
Passing Yards:
Patrick Mahomes (KC) – projection 248.1 (DK odds: 249.5) – UNDER
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – projection 172.9 (DK odds: 206) – UNDER
Quarterbacks Rushing Stats
Here are the projections for rush yards for the two starting quarterbacks:
Rushing Attempts:
Patrick Mahomes (KC) – projection 4.6 (DK odds: 6.5) – UNDER
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – projection 9.3 (DK odds: 9.5) – UNDER
Rushing Yards:
Patrick Mahomes (KC) – projection 16.1 (DK odds: 29.5) – UNDER
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – projection 42.8 (DK odds: 38.5) – OVER
Running Back (and WR) Rushing Stats
Here are my forecasted rushing stats for running backs and wide receivers based on recent trends and the stats projected earlier:
Rushing Attempts:
Isiah Pacheco (KC) – projection 5.8 (DK odds: 6.5) – UNDER
Kareem Hunt (KC) – projection 12.1 (DK odds: 11.5) – OVER
Carson Steele (KC) – projection 0.9 (DK odds: N/A) – N/
Samaje Perine (KC) – projection 1 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Xavier Worthy (KC) – projection 1.8 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Saquon Barkley (PHI) – projection 20.1 (DK odds: 22.5) – UNDER
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) – projection 3.3 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Will Shipley (PHI) – projection 1.3 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Rushing Yards:
Isiah Pacheco (KC) – projection 27.7 (DK odds: 22.5) – OVER
Kareem Hunt (KC) – projection 36.5 (DK odds: 47.5) – UNDER
Carson Steele (KC) – projection 1.2 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Samaje Perine (KC) – projection 4.2 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Xavier Worthy (KC) – projection 9.5 (DK odds: 6.5) – OVER
Saquon Barkley (PHI) – projection 138.3 (DK odds: 116.5) – OVER
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) – projection 16.5 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Will Shipley (PHI) – projection 4.7 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Running Back Receiving Stats
Here are my forecasted running backs receiving stats based on recent trends and the stats projected earlier:
Receptions:
Isiah Pacheco (KC) – projection 0.9 (DK odds: 1.5) – UNDER
Samaje Perine (KC) – projection 1.0 (DK odds: 1.5) – UNDER
Kareem Hunt (KC) – projection 1.5 (DK odds: 1.5) – PUSH
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) – projection 0.9 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Saquon Barkley (PHI) – projection 1.5 (DK odds: 2.5) – UNDER
Receiving Yards:
Isiah Pacheco (KC) – projection 6.2 (DK odds: 4.5) – OVER
Samaje Perine (KC) – projection 10.2 (DK odds: 6.5) – OVER
Kareem Hunt (KC) – projection 14.2 (DK odds: 7.5) – OVER
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) – projection 7.0 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Saquon Barkley (PHI) – projection 12.0 (DK odds: 13.5) – UNDER
Wide Receiver/Tight End Receiving Stats
Here are my forecasted wide receiver and tight end receiving stats based on recent trends and the stats projected earlier:
Receptions:
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) – projection 0.8 (DK odds: 1.5) – UNDER
Justin Watson (KC) – projection 1.0 (DK odds: 1.8) – UNDER
Marquise Brown (KC) – projection 3.5 (DK odds: 1.8) – UNDER
Noah Gray (KC) – projection 1.8 (DK odds: 1.5) – OVER
DeAndre Hopkins (KC) – projection 1.9 (DK odds: 1.5) – OVER
Xavier Worthy (KC) – projection 4.0 (DK odds: 5.5) – UNDER
Travis Kelce (KC) – projection 4.9 (DK odds: 6.5) – UNDER
Jahan Dotson (PHI) – projection 0.7 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Grant Calcaterra (PHI) – projection 0.7 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Dallas Goedert (PHI) – projection 3.5 (DK odds: 4.5) – UNDER
A.J. Brown (PHI) – projection 4.2 (DK odds: 5.5) – UNDER
DeVonta Smith (PHI) – projection 3.9 (DK odds: 4.5) – UNDER
Receiving Yards:
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) – projection 12.9 (DK odds: 15.5) – UNDER
Justin Watson (KC) – projection 14.9 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Marquise Brown (KC) – projection 28.3 (DK odds: 40.5) – UNDER
Noah Gray (KC) – projection 21.1 (DK odds: 12.5) – OVER
DeAndre Hopkins (KC) – projection 25.1 (DK odds: 14.5) – OVER
Xavier Worthy (KC) – projection 56.2 (DK odds: 57.5) – UNDER
Travis Kelce (KC) – projection 59.1 (DK odds: 63.5) – UNDER
Jahan Dotson (PHI) – projection 5.6 (DK odds: 3.5) – OVER
Grant Calcaterra (PHI) – projection 8.6 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A
Dallas Goedert (PHI) – projection 41.3 (DK odds: 50.5) – UNDER
A.J. Brown (PHI) – projection 54.9 (DK odds: 70.5) – UNDER
DeVonta Smith (PHI) – projection 43.5 (DK odds: 50.5) – UNDER
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