×

Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets and Golf Odds

By Wes Reynolds Jan 21, 2025 | 2:11 PM

Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Sepp Straka held a four-stroke lead heading into Sunday’s final round at The American Express and played bogey-free for 69 holes en route to a 25-under par score and a two-stroke victory over Justin Thomas. Straka earned his third career PGA Tour victory and bagged our second outright winner this year in consecutive weeks at 60-1, which followed Nick Taylor’s 115-1 win at the Sony Open in Hawaii. 

This week, the PGA Tour continues its West Coast Swing through Southern California as San Diego plays host to the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. 

Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa, Nos. 2 and 4 in the OWGR, respectively, withdrew from the event last week. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has yet to make his 2025 debut as he is still out with a hand injury. 

Nevertheless, nine of the OWGR top 30 players are in San Diego this week, including co-event favorites Hideki Matsuyama, winner of the season opener at The Sentry, and Ludvig Åberg, both at 11-1.

Sungjae Im (20-1) missed the cut here last year but was fourth and sixth the previous two years. 

Keegan Bradley (22-1) was runner-up in the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open to Max Homa (35-1).

Tony Finau (22-1) has been a “horse for the course” as he has finished ninth or better in six of the last eight years.

Max Greyserman (25-1) has finished in the top 7 in three of his last four events, including last week at the AMEX, dating to November and looks close to nabbing his first career PGA Tour victory. 

Will Zalatoris (25-1) lost a playoff here to Luke List (200-1) in 2022.

Jason Day (28-1) is a two-time winner (2015, 2018) at Torrey Pines and finished T-3 last week at the AMEX.

Maverick McNealy (33-1), Sahith Theegala (33-1), Shane Lowry (35-1) and Aaron Rai (45-1) are also top-30 OWGR players in this week’s field. 

Matthieu Pavon (120-1) is the defending champion. Other former champions in this week’s field include 2019 winner Justin Rose (66-1) and 2012 and 2016 winner Brandt Snedeker (350-1). 

The Event 

The Farmers Insurance Open was founded in 1952 as the San Diego Open and was initially played at the San Diego Country Club in Chula Vista. The event is organized by the Century Club of San Diego. The tournament was played at several courses in the San Diego area before finding a permanent home at Torrey Pines Golf Course in 1968. Torrey Pines has hosted a PGA Tour event ever since. This event also had a celebrity host for many years as entertainer Andy Williams served in that role from 1968 to 1988. The dominant player in this event’s history is Tiger Woods, who has won seven times (1999, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2013), not including his 2008 U.S. Open championship. Longtime San Diego resident Phil Mickelson is the only player other than Tiger to win this event more than twice (1993, 2000, 2001). Mickelson and J.C. Snead (1975, 1976) are the only players to win this event in consecutive years. Arnold Palmer (1957, 1961) and Tom Watson (1977, 1980) are also multiple-time winners here. This event is also notable because Jack Nicklaus never won here, but he was part of a memorable finish in 1982 as he shot a final-round 64 to fall one shot short of eventual winner Johnny Miller.  

The Field

The field will consist of 156 players and the cut will be the top 65 and ties for the weekend. 

In addition, like last year, the tournament will be played on Wednesday-Saturday instead of the typical Thursday-Sunday due to the PGA Tour, and especially CBS, not wanting to oppose the AFC and NFC Championship Games. 

The Courses

The Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla is a 36-hole public course owned by the City of San Diego. Two courses host the event. The North Course and South Course each host the first two rounds with each player playing both courses before the South Course takes over for the final 36 holes. The South Course, which was renovated in 2019 by Rees Jones before the 2021 U.S. Open, is now the longest annual course on the PGA Tour at 7,765 yards. Both courses play at a par-72, but the South Course is more difficult as the North Course is just 7,258 yards. The South Course is not only 450 yards longer but plays on average close to two strokes higher. The fairways (fifth narrowest on tour at 28-yard average) and rough on the South Course are Kikuyugrass but with a Ryegrass overseed, while the Tom Weiskopf-redesigned North Course has Ryegrass overseed fairways and a Rye and Kikuyugrass rough mixture. The South Course greens (fifth smallest on tour at 5,000 square feet) are faster (12.5 stimpmeter) Poa Annua, while the North Course greens are slower (12 stimpmeter) and larger (6,000 square feet) Bentgrass.

Torrey Pines South played as the ninth-most difficult course last season with an average round score of 72.40 (+0.40 par). It could be even more difficult this year as the rough is a half-inch longer (four inches) to start the tournament than in past years. Southern California, including San Diego, has been very dry over the last several months, so the rough may play a bit easier with little to no moisture. There are 82 bunkers on the course and only one water danger hole on the layout.

The South Course record is 62 set by Tiger Woods (third round, 1999). 

Correlated courses to the South Course include Glen Abbey, Muirfield Village, Riviera, Augusta National, Quail Hollow, Chapultepec, Olympia Fields and Bethpage Black.

Torrey Pines North played as the eighth-easiest course on tour last year with an average round score of 69.50 (-2.50). The North Course is a more tree-lined layout that has just 42 bunkers (the second fewest on tour) and zero water danger holes. Many of the greens are open-fronted which allows for bump-and-run type shots. Greens are Bentgrass and they run very pure.

The redesigned North Course record is 62 set by Jon Rahm (first round, 2019), Ryan Palmer (second round, 2020), again in 2022 by Adam Schenk and Alex Smalley (both in second round). 

Correlated courses to the North Course include Riviera, Chapultepec, Silverado, TPC Scottsdale and Detroit Golf Club. 

Here are the score averages in recent years on the North and South Courses 

Year  North Course  South Course  Difference 
2024 69.50 (-2.50) 72.40 (+0.40) +2.90
2023 71.46 (-0.54) 73.62 (+1.62) +2.16
2022 68.77 (-3.23) 72.35 (+0.35) +3.58
2021 70.13 (-1.87) 73.34 (+1.34) +3.21
2020  70.58 (-1.42)  72.53 (+0.53)  +1.95 
2019  69.84 (-2.16)  71.73 (-0.27)  +1.89 
2018  71.41 (-0.59)  72.81 (+0.81)  +1.40 
2017  71.28 (-0.72)  72.77 (+0.77)  +1.49 
2016  70.93 (-1.07)  74.50 (+2.50)  +3.57 
2015  70.23 (-1.77)  73.52 (+1.52)  +3.29 
2014  70.24 (-1.76)  73.80 (+1.80)  +3.56 
2013  70.67 (-1.33)  72.66 (+0.66)  +1.99 
2012  69.55 (-2.45)  72.36 (+0.36)  +2.81 

While the recent Weiskopf redesign has made the North Course slightly more difficult, you can see that players must take advantage of the easier layout to put themselves into contention.  

Farmers Insurance Open Recent History/Winners

2024: Matthieu Pavon (-13/275); 150-1

2023: Max Homa (-13/275); 22-1

2022: Luke List (-15/273); 90-1*

2021: Patrick Reed (-14/274); 25-1

2020: Marc Leishman (-15/273); 55-1

2019: Justin Rose (-21/267); 14-1

2018: Jason Day (-10/278); 22-1**

2017: Jon Rahm (-13/275); 55-1

2016: Brandt Snedeker (-6/282); 18-1

2015: Jason Day (-9/279); 14-1***

2014: Scott Stallings (-9/279); 250-1

2013: Tiger Woods (-14/274); 15-2

2012: Brandt Snedeker (-16/272); 22-1****

2011: Bubba Watson (-16/272); 66-1

2010: Ben Crane (-13/275); 80-1

Playoff win over Will Zalatoris – *

Playoff win over Alex Noren and Ryan Palmer – **

Playoff win over Harris English, JB Holmes and Scott Stallings – ***

Playoff win over Kyle Stanley – ****

Here are some recent Farmers Insurance Open winning trends:

  • 14 of the last 16 winners had made at least one start in the calendar year.
  • 21 of the last 23 winners were age 27 or older.
  • 26 of the last 31 winners had at least four previous career wins.
  • 20 of the last 23 winners had played in at least five previous Farmers Insurance Opens.
  • 17 of the last 20 winners had at least one previous Farmers Insurance Open top-10 finish.

Pavon was a bit of an outlier last year as he won on debut last year. By and large, experience and long-term course knowledge matter here. 

Statistical Analysis

Torrey Pines South Course is the longest course on the PGA Tour, so distance matters, but the fairways are also some of the narrowest on the tour and Driving Accuracy is only around 52%. Total Driving consists of Driving Distance Rank + Driving Accuracy Rank. 

Total Driving (2025 PGA Tour season) 

  1. Harris English 33 (Driving Distance Rank 21 + Driving Accuracy Rank 12)
  2. Henrik Norlander 37 (20 + 17)
  3. Antoine Rozner 42 (25 + 17)
  4. Kevin Roy 53 (24 + 29)
  5. Daniel Berger 54 (28 + 26)
  6. Gary Woodland 56 (4 + 42)
  7. Jeremy Paul 70 (6 + 64)
  8. Steven Fisk 72 (8 + 64)
  9. Alejandro Tosti 74 (10 + 64)
  10. Rico Hoey 76 (12 + 64)
  11. K. H. Lee 76 (49 + 27)
  12. Ricky Castillo 87 (23 + 64)
  13. Patrick Rodgers 89 (56 + 33)
  14. Noah Goodwin 92 (46 + 46)
  15. Lee Hodges 92 (54 + 38)
  16. Erik van Rooyen 92 (9 + 83)
  17. Alex Smalley 93 (41 + 52)
  18. Beau Hossler 93 (3 + 91)

Since there have been only three events thus far this year, we can also look at 2024 data for these categories to gain a larger context. 

Total Driving (2024 PGA Tour season)

  1. Rico Hoey 83 (25 + 58)
  2. Ludvig Åberg 96 (22 + 74)
  3. Patrick Fishburn 98 (30 + 68)
  4. Austin Eckroat 109 (93 + 16)
  5. Alex Smalley 111 (38 + 73)
  6. Joe Highsmith 116 (46 + 70)
  7. Harris English 120 (83 + 37)
  8. Stephan Jaeger 122 (21 + 101)
  9. Daniel Berger 123 (118 + 5)
  10. Keegan Bradley 124 (54 + 70)
  11. Kevin Tway 124 (49 + 75)
  12. Shane Lowry 126 (97 + 29)
  13. Matti Schmid 126 (35 + 91)
  14. Chan Kim 130 (85 + 45)
  15. Hayden Springer 134 (16 + 118)
  16. Lanto Griffin 135 (58 + 77)
  17. Jhonattan Vegas 137 (9 + 128)
  18. Carson Young 140 (136 + 4) 

Four of the last five Farmers winners have rated eighth or better for Scrambling during their respective winning weeks. 

Scrambling (2025 PGA Tour season)

  1. Victor Perez 90% (18/20 up and downs)
  2. Beau Hossler 84 (21/25)
  3. Hideki Matsuyama 82.76 (24/29)
  4. Sam Ryder 80.95 (34/42)
  5. Taylor Moore 79.41 (27/34)
  6. Matthew Riedel 78.95 (15/19)
  7. Gary Woodland 78.95 (15/19)
  8. Nate Lashley 77.42 (24/31)
  9. Paul Peterson 76.47 (26/34)
  10. Brian Campbell 75 (18/24)
  11. Adam Schenk 75 (21/28)
  12. Charley Hoffman 74.19 (23/31)
  13. Daniel Berger 73.33 (22/30)
  14. Patrick Fishburn 73.17 (30/41)
  15. Vincent Norrman 72.73 (24/33)
  16. David Lipsky 72.50 (29/40)

Scrambling (2024 PGA Tour season)

  1. Hideki Matsuyama 70.73% (302/427)
  2. Henrik Norlander 66.96 (225/336)
  3. Maverick McNealy 65.16 (346/531)
  4. Greyson Sigg 64.87 (253/390)
  5. Aaron Baddeley 64.24 (309/481)
  6. Ben Silverman 64.05 (269/420)
  7. Chan Kim 63.98 (270/422)
  8. Ludvig Åberg 63.95 (275/430)
  9. Ben Griffin 63.88 (389/609)
  10. Harris English 63.75 (364/571)
  11. Nate Lashley 63.75 (255/400)
  12. Sungjae Im 63.74 (348/546)
  13. Si Woo Kim 63.69 (349/548)
  14. Chandler Phillips 63.44 (328/517)
  15. Aaron Rai 63.18 (278/440)

Even the most accurate drivers will miss plenty of these narrow fairways. Moreover, the Torrey Pines South greens are some of the smaller ones on tour, so players will have to be even more precise with the irons whether from the fairway or the rough.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

  1. Matthew Reidel 2.365
  2. Jhonattan Vegas 1.909
  3. Jackson Suber 1.835
  4. J.J Spaun 1.427
  5. Bronson Burgoon 1.357
  6. Hideki Matsuyama 1.293
  7. Noah Goodwin 1.246
  8. Mark Hubbard 1.238
  9. David Lipsky 1.149
  10. Max Greyserman 1.110
  11. Carson Young 1.063
  12. Trey Mullinax 1.060
  13. Zac Blair 1.025
  14. Mac Meissner 0.971
  15. Chan Kim 0.940
  16. Sam Stevens 0.922

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

  1. Tony Finau 0.808
  2. Aaron Rai 0.676
  3. Doug Ghim 0.659
  4. Kurt Kitayama 0.608
  5. Henrik Norlander 0.571
  6. Shane Lowry 0.531
  7. Si Woo Kim 0.506
  8. Hideki Matsuyama 0.499
  9. Joel Dahmen 0.486
  10. J.J Spaun 0.469
  11. Ludvig Åberg 0.434
  12. Jhonattan Vegas 0.433
  13. Andrew Novak 0.430
  14. Greyson Sigg 0.414
  15. Mac Meissner 0.405

The plurality of the approach shots will come from 200 yards and out. 

Average Proximity to the Hole — 200+ Yards (2025 PGA Tour season)

  1. Norman Xiong 13′ 7″ (feet, inches)
  2. Phillip Knowles 29′ 1″ 
  3. Max McGreevy 31′ 2″
  4. Erik van Rooyen 38′ 8″
  5. Kevin Streelman 39′ 7″
  6. Thomas Rosenmueller 39′ 8″
  7. Jackson Suber 40′ 1″
  8. Tim Widing 40′ 2″
  9. Mark Hubbard 41′ 1″
  10. Chan Kim 42′ 4″
  11. Brian Campbell 43′ 9″
  12. Justin Lower 44′ 2″
  13. Noah Goodwin 44′ 3″
  14. Maverick McNealy 44′ 9″
  15. Matthieu Pavon 44′ 10″

Average Proximity to Hole — 200+ Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

  1. Kurt Kitayama 45′ 2″
  2. Michael Kim 45′ 3″
  3. Mac Meissner 45′ 5″
  4. Chandler Phillips 45′ 6″
  5. Wesley Bryan 45′ 7″
  6. J.J. Spaun 45′ 11″
  7. Sam Valimaki 46′ 1″
  8. Andrew Novak 46′ 2″
  9. Jake Knapp 46′ 8″
  10. Nick Hardy 47′ 0″
  11. Max Greyserman 47′ 3″
  12. Patrick Fishburn 47′ 4″
  13. Matti Schmid 47′ 6″
  14. Tony Finau 48′ 0″
  15. Joe Highsmith 48′ 0″
  16. Sungjae Im 48′ 0″

Torrey Pines South has pure Poa greens. They are fast (12.5 stimpmeter) but also bumpy and unpredictable. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Poa Greens (Last 50 rounds)

  1. Max Homa 34.8
  2. Peter Malnati 32.7
  3. Maverick McNealy 31.9
  4. Andrew Putnam 29.9
  5. Nate Lashley 25.3
  6. Brandt Snedeker 24.9
  7. Mark Hubbard 22.9
  8. Michael Kim 22.7
  9. Zach Johnson 19.9
  10. Daniel Berger 18.9
  11. Taylor Montgomery 17.7 (14 rounds)
  12. Matt Wallace 17.5
  13. Lanto Griffin 17
  14. Beau Hossler 14.9
  15. Sahith Theegala 14.6
  16. Patrick Rodgers 14.6

Torrey Pines South is a challenging course, and it is easy to drop shots in a hurry here. 

Bogey Avoidance (2025 PGA Tour season) 

  1. Max Homa 5.56%
  2. Beau Hossler 5.56
  3. Nate Lashley 5.56
  4. Victor Perez 5.56
  5. Jason Day 6.25
  6. Hideki Matsuyama 6.25
  7. Brian Campbell 6.67
  8. Ludvig Åberg 6.94
  9. Trey Mullinax 6.94
  10. Sam Ryder 6.94
  11. J.J. Spaun 6.94
  12. Andrew Putnam 7.14
  13. Daniel Berger 7.41
  14. Taylor Moore 7.41
  15. Keegan Bradley 7.64
  16. Max Greyserman 7.64
  17. Will Zalatoris 7.64

Bogey Avoidance (2024 PGA Tour season)

  1. Patrick Fishburn 12.02
  2. Henrik Norlander 12.04
  3. Doug Ghim 12.12
  4. Aaron Rai 12.23
  5. Greyson Sigg 12.29
  6. Andrew Novak 12.47
  7. Ben Silverman 12.55
  8. Ben Griffin 12.64
  9. Chan Kim 12.90
  10. Andrew Putnam 12.92
  11. Mac Meissner 12.96
  12. Maverick McNealy 13.04
  13. Beau Hossler 13.11
  14. Hideki Matsuyama 13.29
  15. Ludvig Åberg 13.41
  16. Kevin Yu 13.42
  17. Nate Lashley 13.49

NOTE: These are percentages that players make bogey. 

In recent years, scoring has been around low teens under par, so players are going to need to score on par-5s especially. 

Par-5 Scoring Average (2024 PGA Tour season)

  1. Matt Wallace 4.46
  2. Tony Finau 4.47
  3. Patrick Fishburn 4.48
  4. Rico Hoey 4.48
  5. Hayden Springer 4.48
  6. Kevin Yu 4.48
  7. Max Greyserman 4.49
  8. S.H. Kim 4.49
  9. Jhonattan Vegas 4.49
  10. Harry Hall 4.50
  11. Joe Highsmith 4.50
  12. Taylor Pendrith 4.50
  13. Beau Hossler 4.51
  14. Mac Meissner 4.51
  15. Henrik Norlander 4.51

Selections

Will Zalatoris (25-1, Circa Sports)

Zalatoris certainly has some scar tissue at Torrey Pines, having lost the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open playoff in an event he should have won. 

He finished T-12 last week at the AMEX but did gain strokes putting in all four rounds, which is a dramatic improvement from finishing 132nd in Strokes Gained: Putting on the PGA Tour last year. 

Max Homa (36-1, Circa Sports)

Homa was the Farmers Insurance Open winner here two years ago. The California native has six PGA Tour wins with four (Farmers, 2021 Genesis, 2021 and 2022 Fortinet) coming in his home state and on Poa Annua greens. 

He had a disappointing 2024 with just three top-10 finishes but showed some signs of coming back to form ranking 4th for Greens In Regulation on the way to a 26th. 

Homa tends to show up on the harder and more classical courses like Riviera, Quail Hollow, Augusta National and Torrey Pines. 

Beau Hossler (50-1, BetMGM)

Hossler still seeks his first victory on the PGA Tour, but the Orange County native tends to get off to good starts on the West Coast Swing like last year when he finished T-6 here and posted a top-15 at Pebble Beach and a top-25 at Riviera. 

He had five top-25 finishes in his seven starts, including a runner-up at the Sanderson Farms, during the fall swing and has continued that good form with a T-12 last week at The American Express. 

Hossler’s familiarity with Torrey Pines dates to his junior days, as he recorded first- and second-place finishes across the 2011 and 2012 Junior World Golf Championships at the North Course.

Alex Smalley (85-1, Circa Sports)

Although he has never finished better than 37th at Torrey Pines, we’re banking on Smalley to continue good form with a T-16 at the Sony and an 11th last week at the AMEX.

He ranks fourth for the current young PGA Tour season for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green. 

Gary Woodland (90-1, Bet365)

Last season, Woodland was working his way back from brain surgery in the fall of 2023. The 2024 season only garnered one top-10 and four top-25 finishes, but early returns for 2025 appear more promising.

He finished T-16 two weeks ago at the Sony Open in Hawaii and ranked fifth in the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee. His driver should be a big weapon this week at Torrey Pines.

Woodland is a sneaky good West Coast Swing player having won the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach and having five top-20 finishes at Torrey Pines, plus a T-9 at Riviera in 2023 and a win at the 2018 WM Phoenix Open.

Rico Hoey (100-1, BetMGM)

Speaking of those Junior World Golf Championships where Hossler had so much success, how about the guy who beat him in 2012, Hoey?

Hoey is a SoCal guy who has been raised and still resides in Rancho Cucamonga and played his college golf at USC. 

He was the 36-hole co-leader last weekend at the AMEX before poor putting sent him tumbling down the leaderboard. 

He led the PGA Tour for Total Driving last year (Scottie Scheffler second), so his big hitting game off the tee should fit very well at Torrey Pines.

Harris English (100-1, Bet365)

After a solid fall series that included two top-10 finishes and another top-15, English has started a bit slow with a missed cut at the Sony and a T-43 last week at the AMEX, but he did lead the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, which will be of much greater importance especially on the long South Course at Torrey Pines.

English lost in a four-way playoff here in 2015 to Jason Day and had another top-10 finish here in 2018. Furthermore, he finished third here in the 2021 U.S. Open. 

Placement markets and matchups will be available Tuesday evening at VSiN.com/picks

The post Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets and Golf Odds appeared first on VSiN.
On Air Now
VSiN Tonight
1:00 AM - 6:00 AM
Email the Score Studio