The Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles kick off Sunday of the Divisional Round with a matinee in the City of Brotherly Love. Some of those brothers, along with everybody else in attendance, may be huddling together for warmth, as a miserable forecast is on tap. Rain and snow coupled with temperatures dropping below freezing during the game are in store and it could certainly impact how this one is played.
You’ve got a West Coast dome team and an East Coast squad that hasn’t seen a lot of bad weather so far this season, so those are just a couple factors out of many that have entered the equation with this handicap. With plenty of talking points, let’s get down to it.
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How To Watch Rams vs. Eagles
When: Sunday, January 19th at 3:00 p.m. ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA
Channel: NBC/Peacock
Rams vs. Eagles Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, January 17th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Eagles -278, Rams +225
Spread: Eagles -6 (-110), Rams +6 (-110)
Total: Over 43.5 (-110), Under 43.5 (-110)
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Rams vs. Eagles Analysis
Narratives are the place where I’d like to start with a handicap of this game. Sam Darnold was objectively bad last week against the Rams, but that isn’t the only reason why the Rams won the game. Outside of the injury-riddled 1-4 start, this has been quite a good football team for a while now. They’re 9-3 when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both out there, including last week’s win.
The defense is bordering on being a top-10 unit over the last six weeks, ranking 11th in EPA/play. The NFC West may not have been what we all thought it would be due to injury and inconsistency, but the Rams earned it after the 1-4 start and I don’t feel as though they’ve been given enough credit for that.
Meanwhile, little has been said about Philly’s path to victory last week over the Packers, in which players were dropping like flies for Green Bay. Jalen Hurts only threw for 131 yards and the Eagles only mustered 22 points, as they had five yards per carry, but no run longer than 17 yards. It was more of a methodical type of victory. The Packers also had holes in their resume, namely an 0-4 record against the Lions and Vikings.
So, it does feel as though the Rams may not be getting the level of respect owed to them. On the other hand, the Eagles have had the best defense in the NFL in the second half of the season and shut down Jordan Love with three takeaways and a couple of sacks.
But, I’ve been impressed with Stafford, along with his ability to make quick decisions and get rid of the ball accurately. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Stafford has a 17/4 TD/INT ratio with a 71% completion rate with less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket. He’s actually been much worse with time to think about what he’s doing. The Eagles probably won’t give him much time, which means getting the ball to Nacua and Kupp and letting them do their thing.
We’ll see how much the weather conditions impact Stafford’s passing, but I think they will very much impact the quest for balance from the Eagles. Hurts wasn’t used much as a thrower last week and missed the previous two games with a concussion. The threat of balance with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith absolutely benefits the run game for the Eagles and the conditions and the questions about Hurts are likely to greatly influence LA’s defensive gameplan.
Rams vs. Eagles Player Props
A.J. Brown Under 4.5 Receptions (+120)
The Eagles didn’t need to throw the ball a lot last week, but Brown only had one catch for 10 yards on three targets. I expect that Smith and Dallas Goedert are big parts of the gameplan, as Brown’s average depth of target is 12.1 yards compared to 9.1 yards for Smith and 6.8 yards for Goedert.
I can’t foresee a scenario in which Philly is looking to go vertical with Brown all that often with Hurts still a bit rusty and a tough day to get grip on the football. With Goedert back now for a couple weeks, and a decent workload last week, I expect those two to be the prominently-featured guys in the pass game.
Rams vs. Eagles Pick
Not only do I think that the Rams can keep this close, I think they have a chance to win outright. Barkley is a terrific player and what Hurts provides as a rusher is also tremendously valuable, but I don’t think the Eagles offense is in a position right now for Rams DC Chris Shula and his support staff to be all that worried about the pass. That’ll bottle this game up a bit and the lack of explosive plays helps the Rams stick around.
Also, there are a lot of people with a lot of questions about Nick Sirianni, whereas it sure seems like Sean McVay has gotten his groove back a bit, as he badly outcoached Kevin O’Connell last week and has the chance at being a difference maker this week as well.
Pick: Rams +6
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