On Saturday, January 18th, the Houston Texans will head to Arrowhead Stadium to face the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round. VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke and I will provide in-depth previews of all of the NFL postseason games, so now is a great time to take advantage of our special and grab a VSiN Pro subscription. Not only will we have all sorts of written content over the next few weeks, but our live programming will be hitting on these games regularly throughout the playoffs. Bookmark our Divisional Round NFL Betting Hub for all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Texans vs. Chiefs
When: Saturday, January 18th at 4:30 pm ET
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Channel: ESPN / ABC / ESPN+
Texans vs. Chiefs Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, January 16th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chiefs -440, Texans +340
Spread: Chiefs -8.5 (-105), Texans +8.5 (-115)
Total: Over 41.5 (-108), Under 41.5 (-112)
Texans vs. Chiefs Analysis
You’re not going to find many people that want to back Houston here. As far as moneyline bets go, more than 80% of the action is on Kansas City (according to our DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits pages). And pretty much everywhere you turn, people are throwing the Chiefs -2 or -2.5 into teasers. Of course, it’s somewhat hard to blame them. Houston was an up-and-down team during the regular season, and the Texans didn’t come away with any eye-opening wins. But that changed last week. Houston beat up on Los Angeles in a 32-12 home victory, looking more like the team that was promised before the season. And I don’t really think that was a fluke. One of my only winners from the Wild Card Round was a Houston moneyline play, and I took that because of the advanced stats profile that the Texans have on defense. Those same numbers have me looking to Houston to cover this big spread against its dynastic opponent.
It’s just hard to overlook the fact that the Texans are sixth in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.146). We know the Chiefs like to establish the run in the postseason, but will they be able to do it? Last week, Houston held Los Angeles to 50 rushing yards on 18 carries. This defensive line can be impenetrable in any given week. But the Texans are also seventh in the league in Dropback EPA per play (0.003), so this secondary is pretty reliable as well. The duo of Derek Stingley Jr. and rookie Kamari Lassiter is talented and highly regarded when it comes to coverage scores at Pro Football Focus. And of course, the entire defense is well coached. With that in mind, even with the Chiefs having had an extra couple of weeks to get prepared for this game, I don’t see Patrick Mahomes and Co. lighting them up.
I know that Kansas City won 27-19 the last time these teams played, and Houston hasn’t done much to win people over since then. But that game was extremely close throughout, with the Texans never trailing by more than one score. And that was the case despite the fact that C.J. Stroud was picked twice and Joe Mixon was a non-factor on the ground. I think we’ll see a better offensive performance out of Houston after the team regained its mojo a bit against Los Angeles. I also believe that to be truer in the passing game, where the Chiefs are beatable. They’re just 15th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (0.072) this season.
It’s also worth noting that Mahomes is just 15-27 against the spread as a favorite of 7 or more points since the start of 2020. The team also failed to cover in six games in which this situation came up this year. Of course, Kansas City did go 6-0 straight-up in those games, and the team has been able to win close ones all throughout the Mahomes era. I can definitely see that happening again here. But this definitely looks like a lot of points to be laying against a solid football team.
You also have to remember that Houston is 11-7 ATS as an underdog under DeMeco Ryans. The Texans are also 10-6 ATS versus teams with winning records under Ryans, and they’re 5-0 ATS in road games with totals between 35.5 and 42 under him. That last one is interesting. If this game is as low scoring as people think it’ll be, Houston is getting a lot with 8.5.
Texans vs. Chiefs Player Props
Nico Collins Anytime TD Scorer (+180)
As long as you think the Texans are going to find the end zone, there’s some decent value in Nico Collins scoring at nearly 2-1 odds. This was my suggested player prop in the Wild Card Round, and I noted that Collins isn’t just a home-run hitter but also a red-zone threat as a 6-foot-4 receiver with a big body. Well, Collins’ touchdown reception against the Chargers came from 13 yards out, proving that he is dangerous down in enemy territory. Between that and how frequently Stroud targets him for big plays down the field, how can you not like these big plus-money odds on Collins to score? Collins has scored in back-to-back games and has been targeted at least eight times in four of the last seven games. Stroud has a real connection with his top wideout, and it doesn’t hurt that Houston has key pass-catchers out with injuries.
Texans vs. Chiefs Pick
Kansas City is rightfully favored to win this game. However, I don’t think it’s fair to expect the Chiefs to roll the Texans. Houston is a very good defensive team, and the offense has a talented quarterback and dangerous players at the skill positions. Before the year there were plenty of people expecting the Texans to make a big leap, so why is it so hard to believe they’re finding a little something late in the year? Also, think about the amount of teasers there are with Kansas City to win by a field goal. It’s usually not that easy. Something tells me the oddsmakers are expecting nail biter. That’s not that surprising considering the first meeting was closer than the final score suggests.
Bet: Texans +8.5 (-110)
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